The Way ICnFeel The Market Archive:

27 June 2007: FYI - I will be away to India from 28th June, will be back on the 5th of July just in time for the 3rd Quarterly Charting Workshop on the 6th of July, Friday. Why India? Temasek is eyeing to buy a ibg chunk of ICICI. India is growing and will be another China. Last year July, we were there, and we saw the potential and the beginning of the growth. India is planning to have TEN not one or two, SEZs. After Suzhou's success, courtesy of Singapore and LKY, China cannot stop growing. In fact, nobody can stop the momentum. Anyway, it will be political suicidal for anyone to stop the growth momentum. They can slow it down but NOT kill it. Similarly, in India, once the growth momentum was initiated and took off, there will be no stopping and turning back. India is interesting and fascinating; it lacks in infrastructure as compared to China but it has many world class companies.

This is the 42nd month bookshops in Singapore are carrying and selling the famous book - The Joseph Cycle. The Joseph Cycle book broke a couple of Singapore's publishing records. In 2004, bookshops like Times were buying books direct from the author. They said it was unprecedented. In Singapore, authors had to beg the bookshops to carry books. 42 months since January of 2004 when the book was launched, bookshops like Times, Kino, MPH and now PageOne, are carrying the book. The manager at Times said this is unprecedented, this is the longest running bestseller for a local author. Shop managers said books usually last 3 to 6 months only, after that the title will be removed and the balance unsold books returned to the authors.

Another record was broken. The cost of the book rose from $25 to $33 late last year. Bookshop managers were surprised when told. They said it was a risky thing to do for a 3-year-running book. Despite a $33 price tag, the books are still selling. It was unimaginable.

The Joseph Cycle broke 3 records in Singapore's book industry. Thanks to Joseph. Thanks to God. Praise be to God who gave me the Inspiration and made me an Instrument of his work. After seven months, the words stop, so was the writing. It was strange and mystical that the "seven good years and the seven lean years" took seven months to write. It was stranger that the author graduated from the university of Singapore in 19 seventy seven and the last digit of the IBSN (copyright #) serial number should be seven.

Today, the Bull has been running for five and a half years. It started in 2002 and according to the Joseph, should end in the year 2008. But due to the three intertwining forces - stocks, business and property, it is possible for the markets to run past 2008 till 2010. The macro fundamentals support this outlook. According to report, the construction industry has a total book value of $55 Billion. Malaysia has a fair share of mega projects from the 9MP and the IDR while China is pumping everything to fulfill her Olympic Dream scheduled for 8th of August 2008. Like every past Olympic, the host country will feel the Olympic Boom effect. FYI, the next Olympic will be held in London in the year 2012 - expect a Bull run in London. Then, there is booming India. In Jan 2007, many European and American funds regretted not paying attention to booming Asia. They thought it will be a flash in the pan. Now, these funds are saying Asia is in a growth path for the next ten years. Immediately, they shifted their portfolio to Asia and park their funds here. Last week, GE Asset Management even set up a office in Singapore.

So is the stock market over? So far, the highest STI forecast still belongs to Joseph Cycle - 4300. Early this year, three institutions forecasted that the STI will rise to 4,000, 4,100 and 4,200 by year end. But after that how much will STI be? I am eagerly waiting for someone to forecast higher than 4,300? In 2003, when I projected an STI target of 4,300, my friends thought I was dreaming. They thought I was practising some voodoo art. To their intellectual and educated knowledge and insider corporate knowledge, there is NO WAY for the STI to rise to the previous high of 2,600 achieved in 1994! But today, every economist are saying the economy is much better than the last, the fundamental even better. Today, they are singing the bull's song while 3 years ago, they were all singing the bear's song.

In my heydays at UBS (Singapore) I was right in many mega calls and forecasts. Forecasting is a subject which can be mastered. It is an art as well as a science. Forecasting is practical statistical analysis. My success at UBS bank and in the STI goes to show that forecasting is not only important, it is a must and it is very helpful in trading.

21 June 2007:BY INVITATION ONLY:
Tonight I have no training class - I am FREE. So I am inviting some of the weaker students to school - giving them an opportunity to polish up their knowledge through listening and questioning. The invitation was sent this morning via sms. But if you are not invited and think you should attend, do call me at 97978988. My students' well being is my responsibility. It is our mistake if they do not understand. But if after another round of coaching and guiding, they still failed to learn, then it is their mistake. Most of those invited are the elderly folks - it is only understandable that as one grows older, it is the learning grows slower. Thus the saying, old dogs are hard to teach and but if they are the smart dogs, it is hard to bluff. But the rule in learning is - Never think and say, I am too old to learn. I truly respect the older folks who at sunset years, were brave and wise to attended my school - the oldest was Lawrence Quek who is 67, and there were Maureen, Magdalene, Michael and so on. As a trainer I say, "Hats off to you, Sirs and Madams." Using the Thursday window, I will give them a couple of evening trainings. So, check your sms and see you at 7 pm.

Last week, I sent a questionaires to all my students:
Q1 - Did you benefitted (knowledge) from the TA Course?
Q2 - Did you benefitted financially?
Q3 - Will you recommend to your friends?

50% replied so far and the results were:
Q1 - 100% YES
Q2 - 90% YES
Q3 - 98% YES

The results were above my 90% expectations. The above invitation is a special invitation for the 10% of the students who replied with a "NO".

11 June 2007 Dear students! May came and went off. Those who cried Bears were sorely disappointed. Those who turned Bears through shorting the STI using Put Warrant paid a heavy price - LOSSES! Mind this - A bull market is a bull market until there is sign it is a bear. Calling wolf is a method commonly used by people who try to charlie points. They have nothing to lose but all to gain if, IF they get it right.

An overbought stock market does not mean it should be down. For many stock investors, they have much to learn. But sadly, most prefer not to learn because it requires effort. Most prefer to listen for for Tips and Darlings. You need financial knowledge and skill, and then practise.

In January 2007, FSM made a forecast - that STI will rise to 4,000 by year end. It was a brave call. Then in early May 2007, S+P Equity Research, as though not to lose out, made a call for the STI to rise to 4,100. Thats not much but seemed like an attempt to outshine and takes the glory out of FSM. But listen to this forecast which appeared in late May of 2007 - CS forecasted that the STI will rise to 4,200 by year end. Is not that another competitive attempt to steal the credit from S+P and FSM?

But strangely, none has yet to make a forecast higher than Joseph Cycle's 4,300. long ago, I warned that soon, every analyst will be competing to make heady forecasts and 4,300 will appear to be mediocre and conservative. Thats life and thats how the herd community operates. Few years back, every analyst were making doomsday forecasts.

What is driving the Singapore and regional stock markets higher? In Singapore, the energy is coming from the combination of Circle Line MRT, the Downtown MRT, the two IRs, the Marina Barrage, the 6.5M People Target, the Global Water Hub and recently, the F1 Effect, En-blocs and the Global Warming. BIG BIG Money is flowing like Tsunami into safe-haven Singapore; with many of them soaking up properties and driving up property prices. Wonder what will happen should these funds switch to stocks. In all honesty, the government appears to have over stimulated the economy. It is good but of course it can be bad in the longer run. It will create a bubble which will initially make wealth for many but bubbles are meant to burst and the bursting will inflict financial sorrow.

What else is driving the Singapore economy? 8882008 ie 8pm, 8th of August, 2008 ie The 8eijing Olympic. It is the pride of the 1.5 Billion Global Chinese and will be the proudest moment for the China. It will be the showcase of the Century. They will put all their energies to make sure this global event will be a success. Then there is growing India, another nation with 1 Billion head counts. The European economy is also in a bull run. Bernanke raising rates is a sure sign that the economy is UP. A month ago, some analysts have declared "a global economic recovery".

Up north in Malaysi, the lonely PM Badawi got hitched. They said, a happy PM is a good PM as well as a good neighbor. ECBook wish the PM of Malaysia well and as he finds union with Jeanne, he will find union with Singapore a win-win relationship as well. The gain in Malaysia is also Singapore's gain. Technically, the KLSE is a laggard, and it has potential to rise to 1,500 and 2,000. That will inspire our STI to rise even higher. Be prepared to hear pundits calling for STI to rise to 5,000.

In April and May, CNBC analysts were calling for Bubble in China. What happen to the Bubble? There was no Bubble only whispers. At the end of the day, the Joseph Cycle is still right. The Bull Cycle is still running and on track - it is programmed for the 8-Olympic. 5,741 years ago, Joseph of Genesis told the Pharoah of Egypt that there will be Seven Good Years to be followed by Seven Lean Years and the message was from God, and the cycle will repeat. The Pharoah did not go against God and the kingdom was blessed with peace, power and wealth. Technically, in trading, it is unwise to go against the trend and the Cycle. Follow the trend is easier than trying to swim against it.

Of the 500 Billionaires in the world, 30% were of Jewish origin yet there are less than 20 Million Jews in the world. Why? Because of Joseph. Because they know Joseph, his Economic Prophecy and Prophecy of Wealth Creation. Read the bestselling book The Joseph Cycle if you wish to know more.

Do you know the implications of the Global Warming and the impact of rising sea levels on the life of Singaporeans and our children and grandchildren? We will discuss this and the hot sector in our coming Third Quarterly Charting Workshop, from 7 pm to 10 pm, scheduled for 6th July, 2007. Please keep yourself available. Do not missed this workshop as there will be a session reserved for students to share their success and secrets.

Our school, SSAR is enjoying more than 90% success rate. Majority of the students were glad they attended our training course. Majority of the students find the course knowledge-rich and financially rewarding. Majority of the students agreed that the lecturers are experienced, knowledgeable, sharing knowledge and secrets and effective in imparting skill and happy with the after course support. Overheard that one training seminar (confidential) managed to produced only 3% success among the students.

19 May 2007: May is going away. In US, Jim Cramer said, "Sell in May and regret all the way." He is right, the DJI just march from 13,000 to current 13,550. It is heading for 15,000 target. In mid March, it was only 12,000. Seems like DJI is playing the catch game with Asia's booming stock market. But CNBC has been pouring cold water everyday on the booming stock markets in Asia. They are calling it BUBBLE, overvalued etc. Today, Goldman Sachs joined in the "howling". With DJI heading for 15,000 target, technically, many undervalued US stocks are heeding the sign. We can expect some funds to reverse gear and head back to the US.

The most encouraging sign was Warren Buffett is entering the market buying the undervalued railroad stock CSX Corp. George Soros is increasing his stake in Microsoft. Billionaire Ed Lampert is also increasing his stake in Citigroup. Amazon is already into uncharted territory. Watch the internet stocks like Google, Amazon and Ebay - they are cash cows. But dont expect Warren Buffett to buy them. His successor would, I am sure.

Back home, our market is respecting the annivesary of the last May Massacre. Investors and punters were worried with many staying out or cautiously. But there were a group of shortists who had been attempting to short the STI hoping to land a big catch - ie a major crash in the STI. The crash did not come. The result - disappointment and losses.

Worse still, last week S&P Equity desk made a forecast that the STI will rise to 4,100 by year end. Then, there were a few analysts attempting to use the Joseph Cycle and the Seven Year concept in their forecasting. These analysts were not prepared to acknowledge the bestselling book - The Joseph Cycle, printed in 2004, forecasting that the STI will rise to 4,300.

There is too much liquidity in Asia today. Much money have been pouring into Asia and Singapore. These money needs to find a good nest. Dont expect them to put their money into deposits earning meagre interest rates. They have been buying prime properties in Singapore but many of them are waiting to buy cheap stocks which can only occur in the even of a market correction. Hopefully, it can occur or else they may have to continue waiting. In 2004, funds were waiting for the market to correct. They got it in May 2006 in the crash of May. With the rising DJI will there be a chance for the Asian markets to correct? China would not risk a severe market correction as it roars towards the Olympic in August 2008. There is no choice - the economy will have to overheat, the Olympic dateline must be met, there will be plenty of cleaning up and getting ready for the grand and proudest moment - Olympic Glory - a host to the world.

So Asia will ride along. After China, India's economy will hiss. In fact, it is growing and growing. It will be another China in the making. Nobody can stop them from growing. Many nations have missed the growth in China, but they will make sure they do not miss India. So who is talking about recession? Only the Americans are talking about recession while the rest of the world is talking about growth.

17 May 2007: At the rate DJI is rising, it will be a matter of time the first objective at 15,000 be fulfilled. Yesterday, the American Billionaires Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn and Ed Lampert were buying relative cheap and good stocks like railroad CSX Corp, bank Citigroup and healthcare Johnson and Johnson. This is good news for many investors. Why? Because billionaires do not buy and sell or they run after 10% gain. They invest for strategic reasons and their horizon is far into the future. Citigroup is a good bank, it is a global bank with a China licence. They were booted out of Japan but is now getting back in by buying a brokerage house. In Taiwan, Citigroup was the most popular bank among the rich Taiwanese. In a way, it is safer to trust an American bank than a local Taiwanese. Who can trust the President of Taiwan? If he can fake his assassination, definitely he can fade away your wealth in the bank. In Singapore, you definitely can trust the banks like DBS, UOB and OCBC. They share the attributes of SM LKY - honesty and integrity.

DJI is poised for much higher than 15,000. The next upside target is 20,000. In the past two weeks, CNBC news readers were trying to crash the Asian stock markets by calling BUBBLE BUBBLE BUBBLE. Also this month of May is the anniversary of the Crash of May 2006. Many investors and traders were butchered. With the DJI marching ever upward, many analysts are now eating back their dirty words - America is in the brink of a RECESSION. When the markets are at high, there are many wolves willing to howl the market down. Why? They are going after fame and reputation. Afterall, if you are wrong, there is nothing to lose and plenty of excuses to offer.

Malaysia and Singapore are abangs again - Ah Lah and Ah Loong were buggying and durianing at Langkawi yesterday. Malaysia needs Singapore more than Singapore needs Malaysia. Malaysia needs our lobang. Singapore is a brand name that can attract many foreign lobangs. If Singapore is in, foreigners will too. Singapore brought success to Suzhou, China. Singapore brought success to IT Park, Bangalore, India. Singapore is capable of making success in SJER provided Singapore is given room and freedom to operate. With PM Badawi in command and PM Lee supporting, SJER and IDR will be a success.

Beware, twenty to fifty years down the road, the world will be a smaller place to stay. Due to global warming, sea levels will rise. There is no turning back the clock. Many parts of the world will be submerged by the rising sea water which is forecasted to rise a meter to three. When continents sink, million of people will be displaced. The rising sea water will forced millions to seek shelter by moving inland and onto higher grounds. Low lying cities will turn into watery graveyards unless they can fight back the rising sea level by building dykes or moats. Rich and tiny island Singapore will be able to save itself but not the poor and big nations. In 30 to 50 years time, boundaries will change. Nations will be disfigured. Global famines will occur as lowlands become wastelands. This might as well be the true coming of the end of the world or armagedon as many had predicted. Strangely, The flooding of the world was predicted (out of India) some 20 years ago but the cause was not clear then. Now the cause is clear - it is global warming. The scary thing is - there is no turning back. The children after us will have to deal with this fate and we only hope they can pull it through. Only through global prayer may the world be saved and spared this future calamity. The clock is ticking away.

30 April 2007: The American electorates made a huge mistake 2 years ago by electing George Bush. He won the election by a technical glitch - recount! The American President made the right choice to go to war. But the American President made the greatest mistake - staying after the war. The result was 3,300 soldiers died, 2,500 badly injured and 6,000 families suffered. He relived the Vietnam War. The greatest mistake was trying to rule Iraq single-handed. As result, more than 100,000 innocent Iraqis died under suicide car-bombers. The Iraqis cannot be ruled by foreigners! George Bush should read their 5,000 years old history and save grace. The Muslims in the Middle East will never allow any western nations especially the Americans to rule their motherland. America is a nation many parents hate to call home, for the simple reason that they are not able to discriminate whether internet porno is right or wrong, whether Playboy and Playgirl are right or wrong. America is too liberal and the conservative world hates it for its moral bankrupt.

The second biggest mistake was the failure to quickly dealt with Saddam's capture, prosecution and hanging. Saddam's fate should had been dealth with immediately and ASAP. The delay encouraged his supporters to commit suicide-vengeance.

The third biggest mistake the President of America, who was not able to spell POTATOES, was the attempt to rule Iraq under a central government instead of decentralization or even partition according to the three sectarian groups of Sunni, Shiite and Kurks. In the last 1,000 years history, the three racial groups can never live side by side; they were at each others throat and thus Saddam had no choice but to be rudeless and rule with an IRON HAND - killing them was a mean to maintain peace and order.

The American President's dare to go into war did not require much intelligence BUT at the end of it, where intelligence was required it was sorely revealing and lacking. So it did came back to haunt the American public who voted him in. They are now paying for it with the biggest deficit in history - wasting a trillion dollars trying to keep Iraq and every American has to pay for it. The lesson in democratic society is - Vote rightly. Vote correctly. Vote intelligently. Vote the most capable and honest. Or else, pay with your vote.

In the end, we may asked, "Is George Bush an honest and capable leader?" From the beginning, it was not. But why did the Americans vote him then? Or how did he became President? Isn't this strange? If a guy who cannot spell potatoes could be President, then there are at least 49,999 Singaporeans capable of becoming Prime Minister of Singapore. Ha..if you are one of them, dont try in the next election - you wont stand a chance in Singapore. Singaporeans may not like tough rules but they dont mind good party and good governance.

In 1992, George Bush Sr made a bad mistake - he chased Saddam out of Kuwait but did not bomb Baghdad to teach Saddam a good lesson. In 2003, George Bush Jr, made a bad mistake - be bombed Baghdad, taught Saddam a lesson but stayed on in Baghdad. Both Bushes made a grave mistake - an 'intelligence' mistake.

For sure, George Bush Jr will not survive the next Election in November of 2008. A Democrat will replace him. But before that, lets enjoy the global event -

In Singapore, the economy is getting red hot. The government announced the go ahead for the S$15B Downtown MRT Line on top of the current 2 IRs worth around S$15B. The MRT project comes after the S$3B Circle Line, currently in progress. Prior to was the S$7 NE Line. But another mega mega project in the pipeline is the shoring up of Singapore - the plan to build a moat to guard Singapore against the rising sea-water in the next 20-50 years time, due to the inevitable effect of global warming. Guess the budget may run into S$50B at least. Mega TLC builders like SembCor, KepCor, Capitaland etc will be the major beneficiaries. The demand for concrete, cement, sand, granite, steel will outstrip supply. So are construction support services like cranes, lorries, excavators and marine tugs, barges etc. Piling will be good business too. The construction industry is running into a mega boom time and it is could be as long as 10-bull years.

When the moat is completed in twenty years time, Singapore will look more like a fortress, similar to the Great Wall of China. Let me run my imagination wild - the moat will be a 20-feet high and 30-feet wide capable of supporting a highway-cum-rail and at every 10 km, there will be a fortress-like hubcity-cum-garrison. Outside and around the island's moat will be giant turbines to harness wind energy while inside the moat there will be dedicated fields with solar-panels to harness solar energy. Into the next century, we will pipe all condensation water from our home's air condition units to be used for washing our homes; all food waste will be reconverted into bio-fuel; natural gases from human faeces may be another alternative. Nothing will be spared; nothing will be wasted.

27 April 2007: Warning: The copyright to the bestselling book titled "The Joseph Cycle - Will the STI rise to 4300" belongs to the author, Mr Simon Sim and the publisher Ms EChartbook. All material information in the book including subtitles like "The Art of Investing using the Joseph Cycle" are considered proprietary and part of the copyright. Any party and institution wishing to use the materials in the book is required to seek the publisher's permission.

Recently, we encountered a possible infringement of our intellectual property rights but fortunately, the matter was nipped in the bud and settled amicably. We advise banks and broking houses to be mindful of copyright infringement when holding seminars or talks.

Infringing intellectual property is a serious offence under the Copyrights Act.

As the STI rises towards our target of 4300 many organizations are eager to capitalize on whatever they can to draw in customers. With the STI currently at 3500, it is only 20% away from our technical objective. At the conception of the book, the STI was a meagre 1300. Today, it is unimaginable that the STI has risen 2,200 points. Everyone thought there was no way and reason for the STI to rise above 2000. But it did. And it surprised all - economists, analysts, investors and the laymen.

But nobody ever realized that when the book was launched, I am effectively putting my neck on the choppping block if the STI failed to achieve the calculated objective. Nobody can understand how at times, I live in a nightmarish scenario - filled with fear and stress - especially when the bears routed the bulls. The supreme Technical Analyst who sticks his neck out is taking a huge risk. Only those with profound knowledge of his art will have the confidence to take such unrewarding risk - the risking of losing his reputation. Very rarely will you find a soul who dares to rise to the professional challenge unless he has been through many cycles of Booms and Busts. In my professional career, we never use words like IF, BUT and SHOULD. Our professional conduct is - it is or it is not, no Ifs and no Buts. Ifs and buts are for beginners and amateur analysts.

But the financial marketplace can be pretty disgusting. When a man succeeds, they attempt to capitalize on his effort and disregard the effort he spent. If I were in the USA, when the STI rose above 2,500 many organizations will be knocking on my door with offers on speaking engagements. But not so in Singapore. On the contrary, people and organizations were hoping that you fail so that they can thumb you down. Our society has yet to evolve and rise to become a gracious and tolerant. In early 2004, some bad people went around telling others that the Joseph Cycle was a flaw and that the prediction was wrong and had no basis. I challenged them and asked them not to argue but let the market decide who will be right. At STI of 3500 today, I guess the market has spoken.

DJI is heading into uncharted territory. The upside objective is 15,000 and 20,000. Bearing that in mind, what will be the value of our STI? Last year, I had already anticipated this - when the market goes into a final hurrah - the state of euphoria - the Joseph Cycle's 4300 target will be considered conservative and mediocre. The foolish ways of man is very predictable, the sequence is unpredictable.

25 April 2007: You may not recall that months ago, I did wrote that the DJI is poised for 15,000 and later on 20,000. Similarly, many many months ago, we forecasted that Nikkei will rise to 20,000 after breaking above 12,000. And late last year, we warned the readers that "KLSE will go into a state of orgy" once it is above 1000 - that the KLSE will rise to test the 1994's high of 1330. Today, the index is already knocking on the door. But that is not the end - in fact, KLSE will rise to 1,500 and later on 2,000. The reasons are few - one, it is undervalued; two, they have a capable PM who is never afraid but blessed with clear thinking; three, they implemented macro policy changes with major repercussions in the coming years.

The numbers in DJI is liken to KLSE but a zero less. KLSE trades at 1300+/- while DJI at 13,000 today. As a professional Technical Analyst with 28 years of experience, there is no need for me to offer fundamental reasons why the DJI will rise to 15,000 and 20,000. The only professional reason I can offer is "THE CHART SAYS SO!" So, I believe the chart and I work the chart to my suit my investment. I never go against the chart. I never tell the market where to go. I let the market tell me where it want to go, and "I FOLLOW".

It is a global economy. That means every company has a global market which means a potential global profit. So back home in the US, the situation may look gloomy but the companies are showing spectacular and sterling result. The reason is the growth in the foreign element profit.

In a global world market, the bigger the company the better the survival. So banks merge. This month, April 24th, two big European banks merge to form the biggest bank in the world. Other banks will feel the threat. Expect more mergers to come onstream. Singapore is not going to sit back, do nothing and watch. It will be unlike LKY. With Temasek being the biggest shareholder in StandChart and DBS, there is every possibility that someone will call or "engineer" a merger. But that is not enough. If LKY has his way, he should get the four banks, namely DBS, UOB, OCBC and StandChart together, and make it into one BIG BANK. Only then, can we compete and can we survive. I think it will be done in my life time or before the Jedi Master departs.

Yes, DJI will rise to 15,000. A few years ago, I read there was a analyst who predicted that the DJI will rise to 40,000. Those who fails to see the DJI going higher basically fails to comprehend the global economy and the global market. All of a sudden, the limit is limitless as there is no boundary and no time barrier. The markets in China and India with a combined population of 2.4 Billion people is mouth-watering for any global company. As long as the world accepts the global patents rights, global companies will prosper and produce better result yearly.

In 2004, nobody believe that the STI will rise. Many thought the author of The Joseph Cycle is a nut. Today, those who poured scorn on the book and author are searching for the 'rare' book. It was sold out at the bookshops - MPH, Kinokuniya and Times. Even a broking house decides to capitalize on the book's popularity and fame by organizing a seminar titled "The Art of Investing using the Joseph Cycle" but without a courtesy to seek the author's permission or invite the author to participate. Many of my students expressed shock that the author was not invited. They exclaimed, "How can they do this to an author?" At least they should pay compliment and give credit where due. After May 8th, I will be a very very famous man provided they give credit where credit is due.

LKY has three soft spots. Dont ever touch it! They are HONESTY, INTEGRITY and TRUST. If you tarnish anyone of them, he will HIT you with a big rod, ie see you in court and prove what you said. But in the PAP circle, you add LOYALTY and the acronym for the PAP becomes HILT. This "HILT" is the motto in my second book - Survival Rules and Habits - A Legacy for my Children, which is in the process of translation into Vietnamese. Does your children knows how to survive? Did you teach your children how to survive? Two days ago, a 12-year old girl, an only-child, died in Sungei Ulu Pandan. A few weeks ago, two school boys died swimming in the sea off Pasir Ris. Will this happen to your child? Of course, we pray it will not. Dont pray, teach them. Gift them this survival book! It costs only $33 but it is a gift of a life time. They will survive. They will grow to be a loyal Singaporean too.

HILT is a banker's motto. A dealer is judge by these four values - honesty, integrity, loyalty and trust. If he fails in any one, he is a questionable character. In fact, organizations and listed companies should also be assessed on these four basic moral values. Warren Buffett advised that we should invest in a company with a good management. Never put your money in their stock if the management is questionable. Likewise, you never trust your friend if he is questionable on the four moral values. A good leader drives the company's stock prices up. A bad leader drives the stock prices down.

12 April 2007:Let us be Number 1 in everything we do.

According to nature's law, what goes up must come down. But in charting, what goes down will rise up and even higher. So is Singapore. Every time, the world went down we went down with it. Many nations went down and stayed there but Singapore was different - we rose even higher with each fall. Take for example, the water issue with Malaysia. They threatened to cut off our water supply. Small babies will cry and beg for mercy. But the Singapore Think Tank tackled the issue head on and within three years, developed a "new water". It is now the envy of the world. Even Australia, the dry south, wants to know how we do it and they want our expertise and software.

Singapore never says die. We alway say, "We must survive!" We never say, "Cannot do." We say, "Lets try." Dont try us - we pack a powerful punch.

During the Japanese Occupation, my father and many of your fathers resisted the Japanese and killed them. They were the invaders who mercilessly killed and raped at random. But there were others who ran away to a safe place. They returned only after the war. But there were many, like my father's comrade who were killed. We will never know if there will be another "Japanese Occupation" - where our land is occupied by invaders. Should that day arrives, do you run away or stay behind to kill the invaders? Like my father who stayed behind to kill the Japanese, I will do likewise and be proud of it.

Every borned child owes a loyalty to the land that gives him or her birth. The new generation has not tasted war and seen death. Likewise, the new generation of leaders have not seen war and are untested in their loyalty and leadership. Will they run away or stay behind to lead the nation in distress? Will the increase pay increases their sense of patriotism and courage to defend Singapore? Will they stay and fight in bad times and good times? Will they sacrifice their life for Singapore?

If the answers are an affirmative and positive, I can say that whatever we pay them is well justified and worth every cent. Cowardice does not make a leader. In Sun Tzu's Art of War, Sun Tzu said, the downfall of a nation can be found in the five faults of a General. One of them is Cowardice.

What is life without a nation? What is living without a family? Nation and family are the two most precious pillars of every human being.

11 April 2007:My dear Singaporeans, it is time to wake up to reality.

"You can never trust a man who is underpaid but you can trust a man who is paid well!" S Westgate.

Look at India - where they pay peanuts and corruption is from top to toe and in the blood too. Look at China - where they pay peanuts and the officials siphoned off hundreds of million if not billions; and they said, "If you dont take, you are stupid." Look at Indonesia where officials are paid 'grains' and they abused their powers and authority and they said, "Kopi money is the standard. It is for our survival." Look at Philippines, where they pay peanuts but they know the riches comes when you are in office. Look at Thailand, where they also pay pea-rice, and saintly Generals take turn to be minor king to enrich themselves on an agreed 4-year rotation. (Unfortunately, Thaksin broke the rule and was evicted!)

My dear Singaporeans, do not begrudge if our ministers are paid well and they become rich the 'clean' way. Question whether they have been doing their work of making Singapore tick, creating more jobs for all, improving Singapore all round for Singaporeans, making the country a safe and secure living sanctuary, and protecting the rights of all races, and making 100% sure that for every dollar the government spent 100 cents get down to the bottom, and finally, every dollar in the treasury is still one dollar PLUS interest and growth.

Many Singaporeans will never know the tag bankers and nations attached to the 'dirty' and ruthless Prime Ministers and underpaid officials in other countries. Take for example the famous line tag "15% PM". exPM Mahathir was called that. Presidents of the Philippines were famous for that. The Taiwanese Presidents are like that. When we drive along the North-South Highway to KL, we always put in this joke and laments, "For every dollar the government earmarked for development, only 10% gets down to the job, the rest went into the pockets of the rank and file. So instead of 4 lanes bridges and roads, they built only two lanes; instead of twenty storey buildings they build only ten."

Look at African nations and the poverty there. Do we want that kind of outcome. They were poor not because they want to. They were poor because of corruption.

You can never trust a man who is underpaid. Should you employ such a man, soon he will own your company; if you employ such a man, soon he will sleep on your bed. There is no such thing as "cheap and good". If it comes cheap, you better thing twice; more often than not it is a scam or a fake. The history of civilizations have many examples of fallen nations caused by greed. For greed of power and money, they betray their nations and all the citizens. We must not walk this road or NEVER OPEN THIS ROAD, open this pandora box and invite disaster.

The Prime Minister, Ministers and officials are fellow Singaporeans like us. We should love our own. We should be proud of our own. We should be glad that they are doing well and well off. Envy is a disease and being envy will drives out the good and lets the bad in.

PM Badawi is having a hard time trying to eradicate corruption. You know that. He wants to kill it BUT IT IS NOT THAT EASY. Why? Because it is widespread and top-down. Because everyone is in it that is why it is hard to surgically remove it. It can be done but he may not be in the office long enough to see it fruit. Some one corrupt may take over and then they are back to square one. Unless you can afford a revolution but that will be too painful and too costly. Can India afford a revolution? No way, so they live with the corruption and the stigma. Therefore, we must not allow the majority of the officials to be corrupt. In Rome, it is like that. If the majority is bad, the minority good cannot do good. If the majority is good, the minority bad cannot do bad. In the end, they said, "If you cannot beat them join them." And everyone is corrupt. The reversed is also true when the majority is good - the minority bad will utter, "Since we cannot be like them, either we get out or be good like them." This is basic human psychology and critical mass theory.

SM Lee Kuan Yew has done well in the past. In his generation, his team was driven by Peril and Passion. But back then, they were a generation driven to the wall -Take charge or die. They have only two choices - lead without pay or die. But this is a different Singapore - a new generation and a new world - a world without time and space. If you dont pay the good people well, they can be easily hired by private organizations. And we will lose the good people. What will happen next? The bad ones grow in size until it reaches a critical mass and that will be the point of no return. That will be the end of Singapore.

By then, history will record Singapore as a Jewel of the World, the envy of nations, but through the 'silent enemy within' was destroyed by a bunch of crooks and ruthless officials. Is not this sad? Would you want that dream?

So Singaporeans, forget the "cheap mentality". Forget GCT's joke about Singaporeans' chatters while overseas, "Cheap cheap cheap." We must pay good money to reward and keep good leaders. We may shop cheap overseas, but we are not cheap when it comes to paying the Ministers. We must and should pay the best for the best.

In the banking world, a dealer is paid about 10% of what he is able to make. If he makes ten million, it is one million pay check. Can you tell the dealers you are overpaid? He will cross the line and join another bank. Then the bank ends up in deepshit - some of them lost the bank like in the case of Barrings Bank in 1994.

Many new developing nations wish they can have "Singapore's Magic Formula" but sadly, this magic potion can never be bought from the shelf and forced into the mouth of its citizens to achieve instant success. LKY Company and Partners brewed it over 48 long years from 1959 to 2007. He is the Sun'ji of Singapore. He is the Chu'ke of Singapore.

PS: As this is a national issue, you can forward this to your friends and invite some deep thinking. Please accept my personal apologies for names and countries mentioned in the comparisons. Kindly treat this article as educational and not as the author's attempt to defame. There is no ill-will agenda - the true agenda is Singapore's Survival into the 23rd Century.

Partners refer to all Singaporeans in the past and present eras

10th April 2007:Late news:
Last night, I met an investor/trader and he told me his little sorrow. He went into the market in January of this year. Friends thought he had a killing in rising bull market. But on the contrary, he lost a staggering S$50,000. What were the reasons? Like many others, he shorted the market thinking it will go down. He was wrong and he paid dearly. One should not go against the trend. We must follow the trend. He was ignorant of the trend. If you dont know, you will pay and pain to know. Another reason was - he was trading with more than two heads - the brains and mouths of his broker and his wife. Trading is a OMO (one-man-only) profession - you think, you decide and you shoot. Remember the kitchen quote: Too many cooks spoil the cooking. You cannot have two "cooks" cooking on one pan. Either the food will be bad or both got badly burnt by the fire or a fight take place. The third reason was - absence of knowledge. He thought the market was a simple 50 50 chance scenario. Upon massacred, he realized that the market is smart, tricky, deceiving, manipulative, all-knowing and loving to kill you. Amateur investors thought the market is simple and easy-meat after a golden start (beginner's luck). In truth, the simplicity conceals a web of sophistication few can understand and master.

What did I said about Malaysia on 6th November 2006 when KLSE crossed the 1,000 index? I said the stock market will turn orgy. Yes it did and went to a high of 1285 on 26th February 2007. Then it collapsed, a lah mini-meltdown, to a low of 1090. Unfortunately, many ignorant investors were butchered and murdered. Many suffered huge losses and disappeared into the Pahang Forest. In Singapore, you read about a undergraduate, Mr Chan, lost his pants - a staggering $700,000 loss. Anyway, in the losers' absence, the KLSE market resurrected and yesterday rose to a new high of 1301. This call for a hurrah. Now KLSE is in a position to test 1994's high of 1330. Honestly speaking, the grossly laggard KLSE stock market, battered by an "insider" (I mean Mahathir's merciless and continous ridiculing of innocent Malaysians and its new leader PM Badawi), is eager to do a "Catch Up" game.

Relative to Singapore's STI performance, the KLSE today should be trading way above 1330 - lets say 1500. In April 2006, the STI broke the 1994's high of 2500. Today, we are into no man's land of 3400 - a record. Soon, the STI will be looking to test the magical 4,000. All I can say is - "The Joseph Cycle is right." There are now many good reasons for the KLSE to close the gap on the STI, or at least rise to a respectable level of 2,000.

Under the brave new PM Badawi, an expert "Taiji master", the nation has introduced macro policy changes which is fundamental to the KLSE rising to 2000 points. The changes are: