The Way ICnFeel The Market Archive:

29 May 2008
The world is pretending or too fearful to admit that "the governments of the world are facing two GREAT CRISES". Why? Should they admit, it can cause panic. Panic can drive people to do the most foolish thing; panic can cause a economic paralysis; panic can cause a stock market meltdown. But in the backrooms of governments, they are worrying in their pants and calculating the possible scenarios and the possible solutions.

What are the two great crises?

Sky-rocketing Oil prices.

Imagine yoy, my utilities bill rose one hundred percent from $250 to $500! I am feeling the pinch. What about businesses? What about the economy? A year ago, crude Oil cost $70 per barrel. Now it is $135 per barrel. The global economy rose only 6% yet Oil price rose a 100%. Something is wrong somewhere. And we suspect that there is a "blackmail" or a "conspiracy" theory with Russia, Venzuela, Iran and Nigeria the key suspects. To continue the clash of civilization theory, since they cannot bring down the West using life and bombs, it is time to choke them off using a soft weapon - Oil. Ras Putin of Russia is not a simple man. He was a former KGB; Iran is never a friend of the West while Chavez is a sworn enemy of the USA. When the three come together, you can write a juicy book with many hypothesis and conspiracies. You dont need a PHD to jump to such conclusion. But strangely, the intellectuals and the newspapers are keeping mumb. None dare to poke a finger into the eyes of the Gang of Three for fear that they might shut the 'oil tap'.

I remember a story about the various parts of body on the question of who is the greatest - the brain, the eyes, the mouth, the ears, the hands or the legs. Fed-up with all their arguments and boasts, the arse hole decides to shut. After three days, everybody acknowledged the the arse hole is the greatest and most powerful. Similarly, shutting the Oil may force everyone onto their knees.

Sky-rocketing Inflation

World governments are worrying and shitting in their pants. Why? The world is facing a runaway inflation. Rising inflation can fuel protests, communal rioting, collapse of power and even war. We are seeing protests in Europe like UK, France, and Indonesia and some poor countries. The staple food, rice doubled in price within a year - it is crazy! Like-wise for cooking Oil. Two months ago, some countries were facing panic buying. In the rush for profit and development, the world has forgotten to monitor the global food supply. Agricultural lands were turned into prime residential homes and factories. Farmers were lured to part their lands for profit while some switch to the more lucrative bio-fuel farming. Technologists with cash were buying cheap lands from the ill-informed farmers. On top of that, the weather played havoc wrecking agricultural farms in Myanmar (floods) and Australia (drought). Capping it off, Nature add woes with viruses like mad-cows and bird-flu H5N1.

Yes governments are meeting, sitting and sleeping in silent panic but at the end of the day, it is wiser not to press the panic button and avoid pointing fingers. But for how long? Eventually, somebody somewhere will lose their temper and patience.

There is another greater crisis waiting on our horizon. What is that?

Interest rates - will it sky rocket like the Oil prices and inflation? Face with the twin crises of Oil and Inflation, governments are not keen to push for higher interest rates. They have no choice. If you up the interest rates, immediate economic pains will be felt across the board - companies may fall, bankruptcies will rise and currencies will swings. The consensus among governments is to defer taking the bitter medicine. But how long can interest rates stay low when food and oil costs are running away at 100%? Politicians are best at such compromise - "lets not rock the boat anymore; pray and hope for the best."

The world is in crisis. We are facing three big crises: Runaway Oil prices, runaway food prices and inflation, and soon a runaway interest rates. The third is still locked and kept in the can. If unleashed, you do not wish to imagine but it is better to think of the worse. By nature, we are not pessimist but the churning scenarios give us no choice. To survive, it is better to observe this rule - "Better be safe than be sorry."

On hindsight, the world may have got it all wrong when they focus all their energies on global warming, competing for hyper growth and unwarily, allow resources to indulge in unproductive investment. The subprime has destroyed one of our lung. I am afraid, the next crisis will destroy the second. Should that happen, we will be out of air.

The Joseph Cycle is right! The Bull Run/Cycle started in 2002 and time to end in 2008. The Bear Run/Cycle starts in 2009 and time to finish in 2015. In a Bear Cycle, it is wiser to keep cash than stocks. Cash is King. Three times in two months, Warren Buffett warned that the US economy is in a recession. But he also said he will continue to keep his investments and will never stop investing if there is a good stock. Of course, being investment minnows, we do not have pockets as deep as him. Basically, his investment philosophy - investing in very good stocks at very cheap prices - has no end time.

Is this coincidence? There is currently a rumor that is going round the world - Doomsday in 2012 - End of the World. A Brazilian psychic predicted that there will be a huge earthquake in 2012. The Dalai Lama recently said there is 'big trouble' in 2012, and my psychic qigong master said the same too. Hmmm...and 2012 is in the middle of the Joseph Cycle. Well, if you are thinking it is the end of the world - that is one load of rubbish! Never believe in that. In the past twenty years, there were so many such warnings and it all turned out untrue. Even if that is true, so what? Will you spend all your money now, quit your job and wait for Doomsday in 2012? FYI, the last Doomsday forecast was 2001. Nothing serious happened except two planes crashing into the Twin Tower causing 3,000 deaths.

24 May 2008 Signs from Heaven?

First, we had the Tibetan Uprising - an old wound being rehearsed and redressed. Then, we had Nargis Cyclone on 3rd May which devastated Myanmar killing 70,000 people and displacing 5 million Myanmese. Then on 12th of May, there was an Earthquake in China with the death toll to the tune of 50,000 and displacement of 5 million Chinese. Are these events sign of the beginning of bad times?

In the 1994 Cycle Top there was also an Earthquake - the Los Angeles Earthquake. The next year, we had Kobe Earthquake and followed by the collapse of Barings Bank in 1995.

2008 is the year of the Beijing Olympics, it will be well remembered. But 2008 is also the year of rocketing Oil, Commodities and Food prices. At the moment, are you comfortable with Oil prices at $135 high? Will companies go bust? Or will the higher food prices driven by higher oil prices inspire revolutions and trigger wars? What about Oil prices at $200 per barrel?

The Subprime, the first Financial-Quake has already opened a huge crater in the financial-scape. The stock markets can ill-afford another Financial-Quake or after-shocks. Earth may have given us a signal. To heed or not, depends on how you view the global environment, your risk appetite and your past experience.

After the Cycle Top in 1994, the financial weather in 1995 and 1996 was looking fine and OK. Who would have predicted that in the next six years, there would be a financial-blizzard that took the day-light out of Asia with everyone poorer and thinner. There was a sudden unexpected change in financial weather which none were prepared.

Will it happen this time? Today, everything seems fine and OK. But who knows, tomorrow, next year or following year, what crisis will be served?

My advise - be lean and nimble. Do not go into financial expansion. More cash could be wiser than more stocks. It is time to curb greed and reign in temptation.

It is time to be prepared and think of the impossible - the what ifs scenarios.

What if one of these crises hit America and the World?
1. H5N1 or H*N# epidemic
2. Earthquake affecting a nuclear plant or another big Earthquake to hit China
3. Another Bank failure
4. A Credit Card crisis
5. Racial crisis between blacks and whites
6. Oil costs $200 per barrel
7. US $ collapse or unwanted - a loss of confidence
8. Interest rates at double digits

Some experts say we are already living on the edge. But we dont need to be investing on the edge. We have a choice.

Be prepared for the worse! The Joseph Cycle has already timed a top for 2008. At the beginning of the Cycle, be a Gorilla; at the end of the Cycle, be a Guerilla.

My gut feel on why Oil prices are up

The rising Oil prices could be a plot or scheme by the Oil producing nations especially, Russia, Iran and Venezuela to destroy America and its allies. It could be their only and final weapon to bring down the mighty USA. But it may cost the world as well. If this is a plot, then all of us will be no better, will be worse off - it can bring forth a global depression. Analysts offered many reasons (or bullshits?) for the rising Oil prices - diminishing supply can last 20 years, growing economies in China, India etc, then the news of terrorist damaging Oil pipe lines, Nigeria problem etc. These are news meant to create panic and force Oil prices to rise. It was very similar to the Gold prices in the 1980s. I was in the Gold Rush in 1980 and the current Oil Rush sounds very familiar.

But there is another story - the US may have found a simple and perfect substitute for Oil which will eventually render Oil useless and redundant, in one to three years time. For this reason, the producing countries may have 'gang-up' aided further by 'speculators', to maximise their returns and fatten their coffers before Oil becomes obsolete. Eventually, the producers and analysts will put the blame on speculators.

That substitute is sea-water! Sea-water is unlimited in supply! If that is a credible story, it is in fact, then it is wise you stay out of bio-fuel stocks. These stocks will be JUNK. FYI, it is not economical and viable to extract Oils from food crops. Ask yourself - did Warren Buffett plunge his money into such stocks? Such companies could be playing bluffs and wasting investors money. In fact, the switch to bio-fuels is already causing greater damage to the world - sky-rocketing food prices - as farmers were misguidingly looking at silver linings. They abandon food crop farming or sold their land in favor of bio-farming. So when disaster strike Myanmar's fertile rice fields, there is a rude awakening and the world realize we have been breeding a monster - hunger and inflation.

Water is two parts Oxygen and one part Hydrogen. Hydrogen is clean fuel. To extract hydrogen from water is nothing new. The technological change from fossil fuel to hydrogen fuel will be an watershed event - this technological leap will bring forth a Recession or at worse, a Depression as was the experience in the 1930s.

The Great Depression of the 1930s was caused by a technological advancement from steam power to fossil power or from steam engine to mechanical engine technology. Since 1985, scientists and economists said the next Depression is long overdued based on the 55-year Kondratief Cycle. Could the switch from Fossil Power to Hydrogen Power bring forth the next Great Depression? Well, with the Oil prices headed (rather manipulated) for $200 per barrel, it can be foolish to deny the worse case scenario. This perhaps could be the reason why Dr Tony Tan shocked Singaporeans with his warning. All I can said is "Be Prepared". In warfare, Sun Tzu said, "In good times, be prepared for war." In investing, be as well prepared for the worse-case scenario. Afterall, the hand that holds the gun takes all the credit and all the blame.

PS: The above are my personal views and how I saw things based on my understanding and experiences - this was the way ICNFeel about the markets and about the world.

18 May 2008
Tomorrow is Vesak Day but to at least five to ten million people, it will be another day of struggle to survive. They are the victims of two colossal natural calamities - Nargis Cyclone and a 7.9RS Earthquake. Buddhists all over the world will be celebrating with a heavy heart the Birth and Enlightenment Day of Lord Buddha. On this day, they will pray for Global Compassion rather than celebration.

On one hand, we see the outpouring of love and compassion for the victims of the China Earthquake. On the other hand, we see with unbelieve, the heartless, callous and in-human character of the military government in Myanmar. Where hundreds of thousands were dying and in need of help, they even had the cheek and dare to hold an election. The Buddhist people of Mynamar are too passive, peace-loving, meek and afraid. Instead of the masses raising a revolution the MONKS took pity and started a peaceful protest. The citizens maybe too preoccupied with survival issues to care, or too intimidated to attempt. I hope for the rise of a great and genuine leader at the worse of time.

In China, the President Wen immediately went down to ground zero and was there for five consecutive days. Then, the Premier Hu took his turn and stationed himself at ground zero. Both, to provide moral support and instill a state of urgency. The message was clear - they cared for their citizens. They represent a responsible government. The western media jumped into wrong conclusion in the Tibetan Uprising. CNN editor even called the government leaders "goons and thugs". They said nothing about the leaders in Myanmar! For sure, the western media loves to bash China. Such news sell better. CNN unwillingly tendered an apology to the Chinese government. All I can said is Shame to CNN.

In Singapore, we passed the "Baton of Leadership" smoothly and perfectly. Singapore enjoyed a smooth transition of power and leadership. The leadership renewal is the envy of the world. It is the responsibility of the present leader to groom for a future leader. Take a look at Malaysia - the old leader, Mahathir bites the new leader, Badawi after appointing him as the leader to succeed him. This is unheard of. Before that, he jailed his 'groomed successor' Anwar for sodomy. Again, this is unheard of. The episode created an air of anxiety and uncertainty.

Mahathir made one big mistake. He was sarcastic at our LKY for "holding onto power as a SM". He boldly stated that he will relinquish all power to Badawi and gave full reign to Badawi. But after two years, he began to challenge his successor on every policy issues; he even called his successor a coward. Truly amazing for a leader of 22 years. It will go down in history as the most childish and no brainer episode in the history of Malaysia. Since they love to create Guiness records, nobody will object to this episode as one hell of a record.

Back to the stock market - investors beware. Beware of those stocks that sell promises of alternative fuels. Not only that it is not going to work, it is a scam. Why do I said that? There is another source of fuel that is in plentiful supply. Bio-fuels are all rubbish - in fact, it is making the world a worse place - it causes a historic rise in food prices, soon inflation will follow, then the frentic rush towards bio-fuels will come to a stop or else the world will fall apart. What is that fuel that is in plentiful supply?

In the scheme of things, the world and investors were misled to search for alternative fuels using food crops like palm oils, corns and guava plants etc. But back in the USA, researchers are working on an alternative that is free and in plentiful supply - water and salt water. The West already knows that salt water and water contains Hydrogen. Some researchers already prove that they can convert salt water into fuel. Now the big puzzle why Oil prices are going through the roof.

The Oil producers must have known of the success in converting sea-water into fuel by extracting hydrogen from the H2O. And mind you, water and sea-water is in unlimited supply and every nations have enough access to it. It is true and proven, that water and sea-water can burn. That means Oils will become redundant and worthless. So before, the technology hits the mass market, it is to the interest of the major Oil producers to hold the world ransom and 'make the most profit'. This is exactly, I suspect, what the Oil producers like Venzuela, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran etc, are attempting to do right now - "Let the world pay through their noses before Oil becomes worthless."

Now, if you do not believe me, go to youtube.com and search under "water fuel or salt water fuel" . You will be amaze that inventors are able to power lawn-mover, motorbike and motorcar using water, they are able to create fire with sea-water. This is an accidental discovery to me at youtube. Now the big question is - why isnt the rest of the world aware of this? Why is the world going into the wrong direction - searching for alternative fuels using food crops? Did not they know earlier that water is fuel? Why isnt America telling the world? Or are they secretly researching on water fuel in an attempting to be global leader and corner the global mass market?

Burning Sea water
Water Fuel Car
Water Fuel Grass Cutter
Water Car in Japan
Man runs car on pure water and sun
Water can burn

How much Oil can be saved if all vehicles can be powered by water? The USA represents only 4% of the global population but its transportation network consumes 25% of the global Oil output. Yes, if water turns into a substitute for Oil, Oil will be obsolete! Oil will be worthless. The Oil producing countries will be broke. But before that hits the market, it is not surprising that there is a concerted intentional effort by oil producers to cream off the world.

After all, water H2O, is two parts oxygen and one part hydrogen. With today's technology, it is not difficult to single out the hydrogen and turns it into fuel. Hydrogen is clean fuel. After burning it returns back to water state. Thus, it is a perfect solution unlike the fossil fuels which has a destabilising effect on the global weather and pollution. Ask any science students in Singapore, they will tell you that water can burn because of the hydrogen, theoretically speaking.

Why isnt Singapore venturing into water fuel? Is our government sleeping? Or do we have to wait till someone threatens us just like the water issue with Malaysia? In truth, the world is already threatened and in fact, held ransom by the Oil producing countries. These countries know that in one to two-year time line, water fuels technology will be perfected. And water especially sea-water, is free and in endless supply.

Go to hell with Oil! And throw away those stocks hopeful of generating enough bio-fuels to generate a profit. They will all come crashing down and the stocks will be as good as junks. It is slightly better if you invest in solar stocks! In Nasdaq, solar stocks are hot now - prices are roaring through the roof. But ultimately, they will be rendered useless and unreliable too as the sun's heat is uneven and there will be days of 'no sunshine'. Solar will be redundant once water fuels sink its root.

15 May 2008
If Lee Kuan Yew is the Father of Modern Singapore, then Mrs Lee is the silent motivator behind him. Today, join me to pray for her speedy recovery :

"Mrs Lee Kuan Yew suffered a massive brain haemorrhage on Monday and was admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital after a scan at the National Neuroscience Institute, the Prime Minister's Office said in a statement on Thursday."

Remember this quote: Behind every successful man is a woman. She is the woman behind Lee Kuan Yew. Singapore is blessed to have both of them. Every young Singaporeans owe both of them a ton of gratitude. I always wonder where will Singapore be and what would Singapore be like, if there is no Lee Kuan Yew and Mrs Lee.

You have seen and read terrible stories of western leaders like US's Bill Clinton and France's Sarkozy. The earlier shitted in his office while the later, had a divorce and re-marry. Leaders must set good example and raise the bar. Look at Myanmar - the leaders are committing 'genocide' by refusing foreign aids. They were not interested in their own citizens - they were callous to their sufferings. You can bet in 6 to 12 months, the citizens will rise up against the military dictator. There will be a revolution. All leaders must love their citizens; they must treat every citizens as their children. Look at China's fine example - the President immediately went to ground zero, asured the victims total support, then hugged the children, showing extreme affection and care. Look at USA - the President Bush made mistakes upon mistakes; the result: 4000 killed in Iraq, Billions spent on Occupation, bankrupting the entire nation. The President did not know the simple rule of war - "Remove the regime and get out; never stay in hostile land!" Today, America dont even have money to repair their infrastructures - roads and bridges are collapsing. Look at Malaysia - Umno is out of touch with its own people, the leaders were helping themselves to the nation's wealth, they reached the Zenith of Decay when they murdered a foreign woman by strappling her with explosives. Such audacity. Unimaginable cruelty and crime. Who is safe? What happen? The cowed people "rebelled" on March 8th 2008 using the Election platform!

After Lee Kuan Yew? Will Singapore go down that road? Definitely, not in the next twenty years. But after that, would depend on the leaders in the next twenty years.

The old war horses are slowing passing away - slowly one by one. It is only natural; time spares no one, time does not differentiate between rich and poor, leader or follower. But we must not forget the good people who dedicated their lives for the greater good of all, their contribution to nation building and for improving everyone's life - creating a roof for everyone, creating job opportunities for all, creating security and national defense, and creating tolerance, unity and understanding among its diverse races.

A good leader will live in the memory of its citizens and be cherished. A bad leader will be cursed in history. Look at Adolf Hitler - even till today, no German wish to have the name Hitler. It is a name curse in history.

A prayer:
Dear Lord, we pray for good health among our leaders and their families. We pray for harmony, peace, understanding and unity. We pray for protection against natural calamnities. We thank you and continue to ask for guided and good leaders. Thank you Lord.

23 April 2008
SHAME ON THE SINGAPORE EXCHANGE! SHAME ON THE AUTHRORITIES

Childish fight between brokers and exchange. I am really ashame that the exchange and the brokers should choose to fight at the financial expense of all investors. It been four months and yet they cannot settle the index issue. Investors are paying full fees and yet their interest were ignored.

Singapore is an international center, the government say so. But the way these people behave, I doubt we deserved title ... we are behaving worse than animals. It is a world first.

In the CLOB crisis, we did not complain when the Malaysians clobbed us. We regarded the Malaysians as outsiders, so we chose to stay united. Today, Singapore Exchange is fighting against the interest of Singaporean investors! Is not this shame?

We are paying the exchange and the brokers top commission for the stocks we bought. And yet our interest were not taken into consideration when they fight over a small issue - the index - for four long months. Who suffers? We are suffering. So those children better wake up and tighten their pampers. On the street investors are silently getting angry and frustrated.

Investors beware - the institutions are looking after own interest and disregard you. The message is - we are not important. Are they behaving like they are not accountable to anybody, not even to the reputation of Singapore? The world is laughing at Singapore Exchange and the bunch of brokers. They are putting Singapore to shame.

13 April 2008
On the 8th of March, I wrote and quote, "Certainly, the market is oversold and overdone and over-reacted. But the man on the street by now were too poor to invest. Many good stocks were cheap and begging for buyers." But an event occured this month, which made the poor even poorer and the rich less rich. Jade became jaded. Worse off, the matter is now in the hands of the CAD. It means the situation is unpredictable and can be volatile - you never know what dirty linens can be found when good names like OCBC and Merrill are actors in the script. Good luck to you who indulge in such stocks - all against the grain of commonsense investing.

At the end of every investing idea, risk is always equal to the reward. The higher the risk, the higher the reward, and the lower the risk, the lower the reward. But not many stock investors understand this. They seem to think this applies only to saving deposits and all other aspects of life EXCEPT the stock market.

First and foremost, 80% of us above 40 years of age will have a dirty-eye, an itchy-hand and an eager-leg on the stock market. And 80% of the 80% think they are wiser than the market, that they can beat the market without knowledge, that this is a safe "get-rich" scheme, think that the stock market is safer than the MLMs like Sunshine Empire, that this is a 50 50 game of Up or Down. None of them realize and or refuse to recognize, that they are paying to buy FUN, THRILL and EXCITEMENT. All of them will bullshit you that they aim to grow their money.

A few years ago, I heard of this doctor who failed as a doctor, then turned successful venture capitalist and finally into a hot-turnaround corporate specialist, buying 'sickly-looking' companies and making them healthy again. The investors read this as being savvy and see an opportunity to strike it rich, piggybacking. Words spread and he became an idol. He gained mass followers quickly. His name echoes on Battery Road and Shenton Way. His followers became loudspeakers, and promoters and salesmen. Investing friends and some of my students were telling (and advising) me to buy Jade, Netelusion and Ei-nets, citing the most enticing reason - a gambling (casino) licence in China. They said, "Dont miss this chance."

When you talk of gambling or gaming licence approved by the Chinese government, your EYES will pop out of your sockets - that is your Greed will replace your eyeballs. But my average intellect says, how can China tolerate gambling? Would the Chinese leaderships risk their leadership model by encouraging and approving gambling? Yes, Singapore Government did 'approved' with restrictions two CASINOS. But Macau (already a part of China) already has 18 Casinos, so what is the rationale for the authorities to issue another gambling or gaming licence? Ah ha, here is the catch: to win, others must spin juicy stories, stories that can entice and agitate your greed, and then slaughtering you at the abbatoir. Reasons must always rise above greed. Nobody can help you if you 'greeded' neither can you blame anybody for greeding.

After many years of walking this stony and uneven road, I have paid enough tuition fees to know that things are not as simple as it seems. The winds above the sea-line is very different from the currents below it. Only simpletons believe in simple stories that easily excite the perma skin. The years of experience has by now tamed and mellowed my greed. For their 'goodwill' recommendation, I was kind enough to give them a slanted smile. But alas, they failed to get my subtle hint. In reality, such friends are devils in disguise - they do not realize they were Satan's Man trying to drag me into Hell. Thank God I did not fall into Satan's Trap.

God has sent us an Investment Savior in the name of Warren Buffett. If you have not heard of him, please surf the web or visit the nearest bookstore to obtain a copy of his Investing Testament. After reading, I am sure you will not fall into such ploys anymore. And if you truly want to grow your wealth the right way, education and knowledge is the only Road to Stockdom.

I was tempted but I managed to resist those temptations. And should I fall into temptations, I will know how much I can afford to lose - my year end holiday. Even that is against the testament of Warren Buffett, for he says why lose when you can be a winner. Dont you dare disrespect a meek dollar - a dollar today is not equal to a dollar tomorrow. It is much much more. But like the Lord who resisted Temptations, my advise is help yourself first, then pray that you will not fall into Temptations - directly or indirectly.

In conclusion, let me quote:
A good doctor and/or a lawyer cannot cure a mediocre company, neither can a mediocre company cures your poverty.

PS: About Sunshine Empire
Over a cup of coffee with my old boss from UBS, I came to know that Sunshine Empire was selling like hot cake even in Indonesia. An Indonesian man told a his brother, taxi driver who needs money that Sunshine Empire pays 10% every month on investment. This driver asked my boss, "Sir have you heard of Sunshine Empire. A friend recommended this company and he said this could my god-send." Hopefully, he did not join.

Sunshine promises 10% returns every month. With $10,000 as member you bought a share. Every month, without your knowing, Sunshine uses your money to pay you $1,000 a month. After receiving $1,000 for three consecutive months, automatically you feel it is a 'safe and reliable company'. What do you do next? Plough in your $3,000 interest and another $7,0000 cash. The next month, you will be collecting $2,000 per month. After three months, by now six months, you say, "Oh, why dont I put in more money? For every $10,000 I will received $1,000. If my monthly needs is $5,000, then I need to have in place $50,000. Why work?" Thus, you plough in another $30,000. In total your investment is now $50,000. And soon you will be telling your brothers, sisters, friends and acquaintances about this wonderful high-yield investment plan. As long as more new money comes in, the musical-chair scheme can continue rotating. But it is a matter of time, the investors will one day wake up with bad news and realize too late that it is a scam. This normally happens are they have collected enough money to last them 10 generations.

Last December, I was in Malacca. Near a narrow stretch of beach land I saw a plot of land ear-marked for development. It belongs to Sunshine Empire. The locals said a building or hotel is coming up but it is slow. Do not judge a company by its external front.

A few years ago, there was a similar scheme in Indonesia. The owner of the scam ran off with nearly S$300,000,000. My old boss said, "Every three to five years, a new scam will appear. The people never learn." I disagree on the last statement. To be more correct, the older ones learnt the lesson, but the young ones never know. Those who were conned usually resides in embarassment, keeping quiet to save face. The schemers know about human weaknesses and seek to exploit such weakness. It is good the Singapore Authorities step in. But, I guess it may be "too late". Already, many Singaporeans have a leg in it.

Like-wise, in the newspapers many advertisements are promising "making millions in forex and stock trading" and "instant trading success - I make $40,000 in one day" and so on. You pay $3,000 to $5,000 to hear their 'sermons' (or nonsense?). They teach in huge crowds of two hundred and over. Some lecturers were said to be beating their chest assuring you God will help you. Do you know that these teachers pocket half a million dollars for every seminar? Do you know that less than 5% of the students were successful when they plunge into trading after the 2 days course? Losing their tuition fee of $3K to $5k may not be a big deal but causing them to lose their life savings is a sin. Once again, the majority of grown ups are gullible. The mainland Chinese has this to say of Singaporeans, "They are easily conned and taken in. And they dont complain. Singaporeans are the easiest meat for cons." My advice to you readers is this: "Check the background of the teachers. Make sure they have at least 15 years of experience and worked in one of the top three organizations in the industry." How great can you be if you are blind and learn from the blind?

8 March 2008
January 29th to February 29th, I was resting and recuperating in one of the ashram in India. The stock market was in a bear mode, and there is not much to do than to take a break. I did nibble on some undervalued stocks before I went on my retreat. The retreat was physical as well as spiritual. I went to a quiet place to heal my worn out heart. I also tried to touch base with my Creater, God. When I came back, I was told the investors suffered big losses. Even some experienced traders were bleeding. It was not a big deal as they were giving back some of their big profits. But for the inexperienced and new entrants, they are sitting on big paper losses; they missed out on the Big Bull Run from 2003.

Then there others who came into the market two years earlier. They panic on the three knee-jerks and finally were caught holding expensive stocks. Their losses ran into lakhs.

Back at home, I heard of one proprietary/house trader who lost a cool $3 Million in the last six months. Certainly, his father can afford his extravaganza. He drove a Ferrari. No matter how rich you are, the market has no mercy for illiterates and heroes. I wish he go to school first unless his objective is to have some FUN, thrill and excitement. Well, most of the losers are like that. They came for the thrills.

There is another category of losers - the greedy one. They heard someone made some good bucks and they greed. They tried their hands on the pot-luck-stock-machine but instead of making a killing they got their right hand severed. And these people blame it on 'bad luck'.

The losers contributed to the winners. Winners need the losers. If there are no losers how can there be winners? Everyone has a choice to be the loser or the winner. If you want to be the winner, you have to learn how to be winner. On the other hand, losers dont need learning. So before you set out on the investment highway, decide which path you would like to take - the Winner's Pathway or the Loser's Pathway.

October was the market top. It is March now. The decline is into the six months. Decline dont last forever. That means somehow sometime in the near future, there will be an opportunity for the market to rise again ie recover in prices. In the last two months, as the Hedge Funds panic and ran for the exit, innocent investors were rolled over. There were chaos and a loss of confidence. It was caused by the CDO, the Oil price and inflation. Prices were falling in thin volume. There was no bid at time. And worse still, there were margin calls and forced selling. Well, you can say it was like a melt-down - the final episode of the decline.

Certainly, the market is oversold and overdone and over-reacted. But the man on the street by now were too poor to invest. Many good stocks were cheap and begging for buyers.

Bad time will end, so is good time which recently ended at its high in October 2007. Bear market will give way to bull market. Falling prices will give way to rising prices. The stock market is a dynamic cycle - rising and falling, always in a constinuous state of fluctuations. When you understand fluctuations, you will understand the nature of market.

Before I leave for India, I was eyeing to buy Citigroup at $27 and UBS at $38. When I came back, I bought them at $23 and $32. It was cheap. Personally, I think the low price has already built-in all the negative factors. I am buying them based on Crisis Investing. When else can you buy such good name banks at such low prices? Do you think Citigroup and UBSG will file for Chapter 11? Of course, there is still a risk but one has to take calculated risk. We dont bet our entire life saving. America is getting cheap including the US$ - and it is attracting a lot of foreign investors. The nation and economy is caught in a Election limbo. After the Election, well Democrats will win the Election, the bearish mindset will change into positivism. I dont think it is wise to write off America. You can ask our MM. America always has the capability to come back and bounce back. They have the energy and the dynamism. They are global leaders and trendsetters. Just think of American Idol.

In the year 2007, I abused my God-given body - 3 hours of sleep, 10 cups of coffee, five rounds of Chinese tea, red-wine. God put a stop though he did not stop me. By January 2008, my body rebel - I was rewarded with a irregular heart beat, irritable bowel and yellowish skin. I knew my time was up. Thus I RAN off to India - to hibernate and to recuperate, even at the expense of celebrating Chinese New Year with the family. I may be mighty over the market, but I failed to lord over my health. In fact, I bow to God and beg for good health. I always profess health over wealth but 2007 was a year that require attention. I gave it but I paid a price.

Thank God I am better today. By chance, I met a Singaporean friend who introduced me to Electro Therapy. It worked. I got my strength and health back. Now I must treasure it. Yes, treasure your good health. Dont take it for granted. Dont let sickness wakes you up. All your money cannot buy good health. But your good health can earn all the money.

Praise the Lord.