The Way ICnFeel The Market Archive:

5 December 2006: The big news - STI up 51 points (to close at 2902) today while many Singaporeans are on holiday. Of course, the smart ones, those who follow the Joseph Cycle and who believed that the STI will rise to 3000 by year end, will be smiling at their CDP statements. This brought to mind those analysts' forecast made in January/Feb of 2006.

Everyone were so 'pessimistic' and were calling for 'damage' control. The best forecast for the year 2006 came from Citigroup, they forecasted a max of 2600 STI. The worse forecast came from CIMB-GK - 2460 max. All the forecasts (OCBC 2465, UBS 2550, JPMorgan 2500, CIMB 2460, DBSV 2560, Citig 2600) were too conservative and I knew from the figures that the market will prove them wrong. None is bold enough to forecast 3000 STI by year end. But one analyst did? Who? The author of The Joseph Cycle - Will the STI rise to 4300. Some said it is wise not to read too much into analyst's forecast or you will regret. Most if not all of them thought that 2006 will be a bad year for stocks. The reasons offered were soaring Oil prices, bird flu, drastic global economic slowdown, political tensions and rising interest rates. But market defies the larger and common logic. In fact, the market follows a much bigger macro trend which many mediocre analysts were not able to understand and appreciate.

The Joseph Cycle is marching forward. Hiccups, minor and major, along the way were greeted with cheers. The recent market correction in May 2006 was a huge buying opportunity sorely missed by many. Cash-rich funds were quietly and gleefully mopping up when panicky investors were dumping and unloading stocks; many suffered huge trading losses in the two months meltdown. The year 2006 rewards those who is faithful to the Joseph Cycle. If you want to learn about the Joseph Cycle, attend our training courses.

Recently, many are harping and gossipping about a US Recession - you can hear it at CNN. But the Dow did the opposite - rising and rising. The world has change. America's woe is Asia's gain. Similarly, our neighbor's sorrow is Singapore's happiness and their loss our profit. The coup in Thailand did us good. The spats in Malaysia did us good. The uncertainty in the Middle East turns Singapore into a oasis of peace. As PM Lee HL has said Singapore will be the Jewel of the Asia. In truth, we are becoming the Jewel of the World. Make friends with Singapore, and we will survive and prosper together. Malaysia ought to learn this lesson much much earlier.

Poor Mahathir. He started well but ended up being a misfit. Through his passion, he raised the pride of Malaysians but an overdose brought disgrace to the nation and unknowingly, to himself. It was unimaginable for a mentor leader to torment his immediate and chosen successor. Hey, is not this a Guiness world record? Malaysia is a blessed country but mismanagement and egoism its undoing. Mahathir's interpersonal rivalry and jealousy against one man, Lee Kuan Yew, was the cause of his downfall. Once upon a time, Taiwan was a darling and economically ahead of Singapore. Then, one day, the people voted in a Mr Chen who many said orchestrated his own assasination, with promises of Independence. Today, the nation is in utter chaos. Taiwanese friends said the nation has gone backward and it is now 10 rungs below Singapore. Leaders make a country tick. Leaders can also prick a country. It is wise to choose competent and morally upright leaders with the minimum values of HONESTY, INTEGRITY, LOYALTY and TRUST. In short, HILT. If they fail, they ought to know what to do with their swords.

Under PM Badawi, Malaysia is blessed again and in a pair of good hands. Malaysia will rise again. Personally, I admire this PM for his style, patience and courage. I said before, he is like a great taiqi master. Soon, he will be doing the weeding of incompetent and narrow-minded officers in his camp. Next year, is Tourism Year for Malaysia. PM Howard heaped praises for Malaysia. ANZ bought into AMMB bank. The investment world will be watching. Tourists will be coming.

I personally believe the PAP's Old Guards know what is Leadership's continuity and quality. They will never hesitate to spare and crack the party whip. They rather sacrifice the man than the nation. They govern for the people, for the majority and for the future. Thus, after 40 long years of governance, the world is taking an interest in Singapore - how it is being run, how it tick and why it is successful.

Back to economics - yes and so what if America is in recession. The US economy has decoupled from the world economy. The global growth is no longer dependent just on US. Asia, driven by China, India and Japan, are driving the world's economy. Soon, Indonesia, the world's 4th largest country, will join in. Asia has a combined population of nearly three Billion people. The gain from global growth will offset the decline in the US.

Next year, investors will be talking and heralding about the years ending in seven. Many pundits said years ending in seven were bad years. Thats a wrong notion. Of course, in every year, there are bad events. But if the dominant cycle is up, it becomes an opportunity to buy cheap.

Lets recap the past years ending in seven:
1997 - Beginning of Asian financial crisis
1987 - Black Monday
1977 - Oil crisis. Stg devaluation
1967 - ME war
1957 - Malaysia's Independence
1947 - Partition of India
1937 - Japan bombed Shanghai

So what is going to come along in 2007? 1987 was the best chance to buy cheap stocks. Despite the oil crisis, stocks continued to rise till 1980. Do you know why? Attend school and you will understand. Knowledge is the foundation for success. The world is greased by knowledge. Success is based on knowledge. With knowledge comes understanding; from understanding comes confidence. From confidence, success.

What is the difference between Singapore and the rest of the world? Education. So if you want to succeed, go to school. It is too costly to learn by trial and error. My advise - dont try it; you pay and learn nothing. It is cheaper to pay a teacher and learn something.

1 December 2006: On the 7th of November, I wrote and I quote, "Beware....the KLSE is hanging below the pyschological 1,000 index. When was the last time the KLSE was above 1000? 1997. Thats ten long years ago. I can imagine the carnage if KLSE shoot pass the 1,000 mark. It will be orgy for 1,300." On that day, KLSE broke the 1000 mark and since then has not look back. Yes it was orgy. At the end of November, the KLSE were up 81 points to close at 1081. Many stocks rocketed during the Umno meeting.

There were five notable events worth mentioning:
1. Despite the heated Umno Meeting, KLSE continued to rise.
2. Without taking retaliatory actions, Badawi truly emerged stronger while Mahathir suffered the ignominy of an heart attack.
3. Despite the world calling Malaysia a phariah (legacy of Mahathir) and boycotted investing in Malaysia, ANZ surprised everyone by taking a 15% interest in AMMB Bank.
4. PM Howard of Australia made a historic visit to Malaysia after ten years 'no visit and no talking term' relationship.
5. Malaysia finally woke up and realized that it is mutually important to acknowledge Singapore as an "Abang" rather than bicker over pennies and trivials, and miss the big global pie. Singapore will now play hard to get in order to get mileage from the north court. Our ministers had hinted that Singapore is 'yes' interested to go into Malaysia but will continue its successful works in China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and now Saudi Arabia.

As I said, Badawi is slowly and wittingly destroying the negative and combative legacy of Mahathir - the egoistic Minister famed for the "10% Minister" tag. There is room for Malaysia to grow and the growth will be fast and sustainable if only Singapore is in the picture. Why? Because when we are in, the big names will come along. The big names have trust in the Singapore logo. The world is watching Malaysia. And many investors are watching from the sideline. If more better names move into Malaysia, everyone will jump in. But they must court Singapore first.

Saudi Arabia's invitation to Singapore was a great insult to Malaysia. In the past two weeks, our top gun Salesmen, President Nathan, MM LKY, SM GCT and PM LHL were visiting Saudi Arabia and the Middle East. What were they doing? My guess is - signing multi-billion dollars agreement! I can only said, "Well done, Singapore." We may be a small nation, but we are a nation much sought after. We have got our values and principles right; now the world is looking to Singapore as an example and solution. We must give our leaders top marks but lets hope they dont overpay pay themselves too much while the old folks were asked to retrain, take cheap pay, volunteer for pay cuts and welcome foreign labor. Anyway, the world has changed and the gaps between the rich and poor is widening. Many unfortunates will be left behind in the new economic global world where mobility and mass are the name of the game.

In the month of November, the STI gained 140 points or 5% while KLSE rose 91 points or 9%. Why? Investors were wary of August, September and October months, the double Ghost Festival months in August and September, and the distraction from the World Cup football. The smarter ones were buying stocks were they were watching football. So once the bad months were over, it is time to get in. But it was too late - stock prices were much higher at the end of October instead of lower. Today, we are entering in December trading month. Statistically, December is the most bullish. So expect, stocks to remain steady and firm. Oversold stocks are likely to recover. The tech sector is beginning to recover after two and half years of decline. Technically, they have much upside potentials. Watch the Bio-diesel sector - it is getting hot as weeks passed by.

One student said, "The market only drop big on one day and rose ten." We had the biggest stock correction after the Election. Before that, there were peanut corrections. So the rally in July had caught a lot of investors by surprise. They were expecting a second fall with many analyst calling for a decline to 2000 and 1800. Many analysts were wrong and investors were left empty handed when the STI went on a straight line rampage. My guess is the funds were gleefully buying stocks during the World Cup while investors were happily watching and betting Football. Overall, the macro trend is still bullish if based on the Joseph Cycle which forecast a cycle top in the year 2008. This coincides with the Beijing Olympic, the completion of the Circle Line MRT project and the two Integrated Resort projects, worth a combined $20 Billion. With so much injections into the economy, anyone will tell you that the economy will enter into a over heating phase, matter of time.

13 November 2006: The market is dead quiet. The reason - it is examination week - the O-level students are facing their examinations; teachers are just as busy. Nobody has time for the stock market. But after the exam, parents who were as stressed as their children since October, will be glad to pack their bags and family, and take a budget flight out of Singapore. Likewise, many companies will say, "Enough made for the year. Time to slow down. And plan for next year." Bankers are notorious for such street-smart worktitude. Why made sooo much and end up facing a big budget for next year. The employee's survival rule is - Work smart if you want to work long. After all, employers never say enough but during troubled times everyone is a burden to the company's survival. In an era of technological advancement, employees are still employees and still face the same risks of unemployment and redundancy. Loyalty is a mockery while greed drives the company.

How is your health? Of what use is wealth when there is no health? Fifteen years ago, the Cancer Ratio was 1 in 5. Then, a few years ago, I couldnt believe my ears - 1 in 4. I thought the statistic is wrong or someone had a bad-mouth. Three weeks ago, I heard from a reliable source - the ratio is 1 to 3. I jumped out of my chair with a shock. Then, I went around talking about it, and everyone swears that they had someone who had the terrible word "C". When we think of C, we think of a successful person with Cash, Car, Condo and Credit Card. Nobody would think one of the C is Cancer! There is an underground murmuring that Singapore has the highest cancer rate in the world. Does this come with the World Best's airport, airline, seaport, etc?

What is wrong with Singaporean's lifestyle - the food we eat, the air we breathe and the water we drink? Overwork dont kill; underwork does and Singaporeans are overworked. Could the culprit be in the constant fogging among the 200+ condominiums in Singapore? Certainly, C comes from the overcooked Satay which Singaporeans gobbled without complaining. What we eat is what we are. C can also come from the plastic utensils we used everyday. I guess there are many reasons for the world class Cancer ratio. Either we live with it or we need to change our lifestyle.

Change or die. Dinosaurs refused to change and they became historic. Many organisations refused to change and they were crumpled by the evolution and the revolution. How to change? What to change? Email me and I will tell you more. If you are 50 and older, you have no choice but to change. Why?

If you have a hand-gun loaded with one bullet, the chance of surviving the Russian roullette is 1 in 5. When it comes to cancer, it is 1 in 3. Ah ha, better put a gun on my head than cancer in my throat. For the desperadoes, there is one last avenue - I hear of one yogi in India who commands with the words, "Cancel cancer!". Lo! it was gone. But ultimately, before cancer strikes you, help yourself before it is too late. God helps those who helps themselves. Cancer can be prevented. Cancer can be contained.

What is wealth when there is no health? Money can buy all the stocks in the world but money cannot buy back your health. We can trade our health for wealth but we cannot trade wealth for health. Good health or bad health is in our hands to decide. I always tell my students, "The first wealth is your health. The second wealth is knowledge and the third wealth is your cash." These are your three treasures.

7 November 2006: Time flies. I have not been blogging for one full month. The bear seasons August, September and October came and went without hurting the market at all. The Oil prices came crashing down instead of up. The ME and NKorea are becoming stale news. The current preoccupation is the mid-term Election in US. There have been many 'calls' of recession in US but companies' profits are soaring. Neither is the Housing slump a threat. Good thing Bernanske did not raise rates.

Asia is still growing. China has matured especially with its handling of N Korea and launching of three mega bank ipo - CCB, BOC and ICBC. The Beijing Olympic is scheduled for 2008 and it is "full steam ahead". Hong Kong has smoothly merged into the mainland; Taiwan is a matter of time and will return to the mainland.

The market is no longer talking of how stocks can fall. They are talking and speculating on how high it will go. I can see interest in stocks are growing. It will become a fever as more and more retailers report "easy profit". Soon it will be liek in 1993 where "nobody is working" as they were busy working the stock markets, permeating all levels of the organisation, from the lowest of clerks to the highest top man. Such is the lure of the stock market - an bottomless gold mine in good times especially crzy times where everyman is hook on greed and know no fear. They will be drunk drinking the "prices-will-never-fall-down-wine". The fever has yet to come but the show is beginning.

PM Badawi will come out of the fracas stronger and gain great respect for his patience and leadership. Badawi is a great Taiji master! Mathathir is only hurting himself.Lately, the Sultan of Johor shocked the community with his sharp words - on the one hand he wants foreign investment, and on the other he thinks the foreigners are licking the country. Such cold winds will blow over when the stock markets surge higher - rising prices will put behind bars sorrows, hatred and enemies.

Beware....the KLSE is hanging below the pyschological 1,000 index. When was the last time the KLSE was above 1000? 1997. Thats ten long years ago. I can imagine the carnage if KLSE shoot pass the 1,000 mark. It will be orgy for 1,300. KLSE is still suffering the legacy of the Ringgit crisis while other Asian Tigers have got back their furs and coats. Technically, it 30% below the 1,300 high while the STI is already wallowing in new highs. So what to buy in KLSE? Go into our applet and check the stocks.

Did you buy anyone of the china bank stocks - CCB, BOC and ICBC? Why not? Why fear? How much can you lose when the share price in S$ is only $0.70 per share? How much is a car cost - $50,000 - $80,000? What is the value of this car in the year 2016? ZERO. What will be the value of ICBC or BOC or CCB in the year 2016? Will it be zero? No way. It will certainly be above $0.70 cents! I am sure. Cars are negative assets while stocks are positive and growth assets. The message - "Less car, more ICBC/BOC/CCB!"

8 October 2006: Apology: My mass mailing program has slowed to a crawl. I cannot find the reason. Please read from the web for the moment.
PS: 9th Technical Analysis For Stock Investor Course from 9th to 29th Oct. Preview this Sat, 7th Oct, 2-4 pm. Pls call Vivien at 98439884.

Three things are threatending to take the daylight out of the world:
1. HAZE - I was down yesterday. I was slightly down on Tuesday but quickly recovered on saline wash. Yesterday, my heart beat was not normal and was feeling fluish with a heavy head, so I went to sleep immediately after dinner. Today, I am 90% OK. Many of us will have to suffer and pay for our medical expenses. The culprits causign the haze has no moral concern for all the people living in ASEAN - a combined population of 350 million. The haze will scare away the tourist dollars and cost a lost of jobs and income to many. Nations must have the political will to stop this haze.

2. NUCLEAR - N Korea and Iran want to be heroes. In trading, heroes die young. If one of them blast a nuclear, then it can mean free for all if the global community refuse to retaliate. The N Korean leadership is a lunatic and dictator. You can feel the millions sufferring in quiet. Why want to fight or challenge the USA? This is one thing I dont understand. Why cant the Al Qaeda and the Kims run their own business and bother to raise their standard of living. Japan expects the N Korea to test the bomb today. If it does, then the light will go out of Asia - the US, Japan and S Korea are not going to be happy and silent. And nations must also have the political will to stop nations from achieving nuclearhood. The nuclear accident in Chernobyl nearly decimate Europe. By a stroke of luck and at the last minute, Europe was saved (by God's will) because 350 brave men sacrificed themselves to put the fire out. All 350 men later died of nuclear contamination. Accidents like this can happen in poor countries with Nuclear plant. Chernobyl was a global threat which threaten to wipe off a quarter of the world's population.

3. ICBC - At the end of this month, China will launch another mega IPO ICBC Bank to the tune of US$20B. It will suck the financial daylight out of Asia. Everyone is excited and eager to jump into this IPO. Me too! So one week before the launch, expect bulls to cash out of their existing stocks so they can cash into this mega IPO. I said earlier that one should buy and invest in the top three bank stocks in each country. Late last year, China launched its first mega bank IPO - CCB. In May, she launched another mega bank IPO - BOC. This month, it is a mega mega big IPO - ICBC! The reason for such a succession is, I heard, the Chinese government feels there is a lack of good listed companies in China for the cash rich chinese chinese to invest in! Most of the listed chinese stocks in SGX are Bermudas and Cayman grade, and all of them are speculative; they are punters' favorite stocks and they are treated like gaming in a casino. BOC is a patriotic bank stock; even the oldy chinese hongky says, "Die die must buy BOC." But in September, the nation launched a private bank CMB and it too was well received, rising 20% in its debut.

The launch of the three IPO bank stocks in China is a historic moment for those born in this era. It is a blessing to be born in this period - you will not witness such an occassion again. But for those with the extra cash or fortune to invest in, these virgin stocks can appreciate to astronomical heights down the road - 40 years! It is a golden opportunity to "Invest for the grandchildren." To the chinese who believes in re-birth into their family lineage, it is investing for next rebirth; that is to say investing and taking care of yourself in the next birth. You never die stocking up on the top three bank stocks! If you die investing on such stocks, it can only means "end of the world" and that is when everything really ends. There is difference whether you are holding cash or stocks. Your children under 25 will not realize the significance until 4 decades passes him by. By then, it will be too late. The parents with financial means must have the vision and the courage to seize this golden oportunity.

Please read ICNFeel dated 3 October on why invest on the top three banks and how one thousand shares will make a really big difference 40 years down the road. You dont need to put all your eggs into it - read Tan Chin Tuan's experience. Got to stop here - time to go to Church.

3 October 2006: What is time telling us? It is Examination Season - mothers and fathers are too busy "studying their children's exam"; they have no time for the stock market. The rule is - Exam first, Stock second. So expect a lacklustre month. On top of that, the HAZE is appearing and like in past hazy years, the saying goes, "Pollution index goes up, stocks go down." Doctors will be having a good time - more children will suffer breathing problems, asthma attacks will rise and sinusitis will return. Even the chinese sinsehs will see more patients with sore throats. Good for the doctors but bad for the mother's purse. But there is one thing truly bad and potentially damaging about October and as famous as the Bermuda Triangle - Octobers are famous for the birth of Big Bears. Will it happen this year? I wish it. Why? So I can buy cheap! Those who are already long stocks, will hate me for wishing it. This is the irony. The Bulls pray for the market to rise while the Bears pray for the market to fall. Those on the sideline, like me, are waiting and wishing. But dont you know good stocks never yield to the wishes of the populace; they held their grounds and struts their performance. Take the bank stocks like DBS, UOB and OCBC for example - DBS is approaching the magical $20 barrier. Once upon a time, at $8 and then $13, nobody believes that DBS will rise, especially after paying expensively for acquiring Dao Heng Bank. Soem jealous readers even said The Joseph Cycle book was a conspiracy and it theory of Cycle is rubbish. In Jan 2006, the guy with the golden touch was roped in to lead the bank - aka KBH. Matter of days or months, investors will not be talking of ten-something-$ DBS but twenty-something-$ DBS per share. Banking stocks are as good as cash. Cash pays less than 2% interest while bank stocks pay 3% dividends. If the banks collapse, your cash is as good as gone! If the banks collapse, Singapore is as good as gone. Can LKY's Singapore Inc afford this? NO WAY! It wouldnt happen...you can bet on it and you can sleep in peace. Some local banks are smart - they entice and excite the Ah Pehs and Ah Sohs to part their cash for 3-4% guaranteed return with conditions. At the cash counter, they tried to entice me and seduce my cash. When you know, you would be stupid.

It is wise to invest in any of the top three banks in any country. For example, up north Malaysia, it will be MayBank, Public Bank, Bank Bumi Commerz. In Singapore, DBS, UOB and OCBC. In China, our generation are experiencing the birth of four new big big banks - CCB, BOC, CMB and soon ICBC. We missed the birth of OCBC. How much was one share of OCBC cost way back 40 years ago? $1.30 cents only. Today, this one share is worth something like $1,000! Tan Chin Tuan, the Warren Buffett of Singapore held this share for 40 years. He was a generation or two earlier than us. The birth of banks in China is now an opportunity and ours to calculate and to risk. Forty years later, how much would these China banks worth? Would they collapse? No way....it would shame the Chinese Government and cause an exodus of investment. We all remember 1998, when Malaysia under the MM clobbed us and the world. The world boycotted them till today - foreign funds refused to go into Malaysia. But under AB, they are begging them to return. AB went on air to ask foreigners to visit 'Malaysia 2007'.

If only my father had 2 lots of OCBC back in 1947, I would be a rich man today - $2,000,000! Thanks father. Forty years down the road, if I had 10 lots of China bank shares, my son will surely said, "Thank you father for your foresight and vision." When you look back, 40 years is a short time! The lesson is - If we make the right decision today, 40 years down the road, our children's wealth will be taken care of. Seize the moment now or it will be history once more.

1 October 2006: Bermuda Islands is comprised of 150 islands. Bermuda is internationally famous for its Bermuda Triangle mystery. My ex-boss exclaimed, "Bermuda is famous for disappearing ships, airplanes and people. So can companies."

To quote from internet sources:
"The area of the Bermuda Triangle is called the Devil Sea, the Atlantic Graveyard, the Sea of the Cursed, because there is no particular geographic name for this area. The territory of the mysterious triangle does not have precise borders either. It is generally believed that the Bermuda Triangle is formed with Bermuda Islands, Puerto-Rico and Miami, Florida. Yet, some people stretch the border to the Azores and even farther.

So what is the main thing that attracts so much attention to this small piece of the planet? People are excited with the idea that too many ships wrecked and too many planes crashed in the Bermuda Triangle. Eyewitnesses say that they saw either an UFO or silvery fog before a breakdown happened. Twenty-two planes crashed in the area of the Bermuda Triangle during the period of 1945-1971; 38 ships sank during 1840-1973.

Although, accidents with small private yachts were rather unusual. They would be found abandoned at sea - no people on board, although things and life boats remained intact."

Thus the jokes about Bermuda companies are: "Like the aeroplanes and ships that disappeared in the Bermuda Triangle, companies setup in Bermuda suffer the same fate - disappearance! The assets and money disappeared, only the shell remains. You simply cannot locate them no matter how hard and how long you try." So before you invest your precious nesteggs, know the origin of the company first or else face the mysterious risk of disappearance.

Of course, not all Bermuda registered companies are bad. One notable exception is blue chip Hong Kong Land. This is a very big ship that is too big to disappear. It is impossible but it is also possible. Nobody can guarantee but maybe it is better to buy an insurance first. But there are at least 30 top class blue chips in Singapore, so why bother to risk. You can rest in sleep and rest in peace buying them. For these companies to disappear would tarnish the reputation of the governing PAP monarchy and the Lee & Goh Brand, which rely on the fundamental pillars of Honesty, Integrity and Trust for the nation's survival. So CEOs of sane mind would never contemplate or entertain a "disappearance". You cant do a magical act in Singapore just like David Copperfield did to the Great Wall of China. There are rules and order here, and there are punishments and shame too. In an nation like Singapore, shaming is more painful than the physical punishments.

A cultural gap! My chinese chinese friend, an IT expert, told me, "In our China, I get credit and approval if I cheat a friend of his money. My poor friend will be branded stupid whereas I am rated as 'smart'." Well, this is a great cultural shock to me! No wonder, chinese chinese takes great pride if they can eat their neighbor's dog.

Check before you leap. Look before you plunge in. Ask before you part your money. Seek the counsel of wise people before the decision. If you are 50 and over, you cannot afford to lose your money to daylight thieves and licensed financial robbers! But if you really have to trade these companies, dont risk too much - maybe capped it at 5 to 15% of your asset and dont stay too long! Adopt the guerilla's 'hit-and-run' tactic.

It is October today. September is over and thankfully nothing happen - I mean the Bear did not appear. Will it appear in October? Nobody know. But with the stock index recovering more than 60% of its after-Election fall, it seems pretty robust and strong. Like the Bermuda branding, the month of October is famous for bear attacks. But based on the Joseph Cycle, the Bull Run is still intact and poised for 2008 to 2010. Funds are under-invested in stocks. The growth engine in Asia, supported by China, India and Japan are well oiled. Falling oil prices are good but will it rise again? The Iranian Nuclear issue is not over. Now there is talk of a recession in US but strangely and contradictingly, the DJI is making new high. So if I focus on the JC big picture, I am pretty sure the trend is up and on track. If I focus on the small picture, I am unsure whether the market will rise or fall in the next 30 days. That is to say, "I dunno." So you help yourself for a while.

PS: Please understand and read my standard disclaimer in my ICNFeel newsletter.

27 September 2006: Announcement 1: The last two ICNFeels were disseminated through emails. If you wish to receive such through email, please sign up at our homepage ICnFeel Subscription/Unsubscribe

Announcement 2:9th Equity Course - Technical Analysis For the Average Stock Investor scheduled on October 2006. We are holding a preview this coming Saturday, 30th September 2-4pm and on Monday, 2nd October 7-9pm. Attend our preview to find out more. Kindly call Vivien at 98439884 or email us to confirm your attendance.

25 Sep 2006: LTA has contracted 6 Traffic Wardens from a private company estimated at $34,000[1] a year to improved driver’s habit. The TW will secretly jot down the vehicle’s registration numbers, model and colour that intrude into bus lanes at peak hours. The TW will roam incognito with camera in hand[2] so don't expect to see a uniformed TP – incognito means Shih Huang Ti’s style of leadership. Of course, it will be effective in changing behavior at a price and a profit. Wonder what is LTA’s Fine$ target?

Note you can get fined $130 for dropping someone off at or near the bus stop. Bus Lane operation hrs:
1) 7.30 am to 9.30 am and 4.30pm to 7pm (Weekdays)
2) 7.30 am to 9.30 am & 11.30 am to 2 pm (Saturdays)

Be disciplined and be a rule-abiding driver or else be fined $170 and less 8 decapitamerit points.

Everyone gets pissed if they were booked. These days, whenever I get booked, I tell myself, "Donation to society" Immediately, the anger and frust died down. The moment, the word "DONATION" sinks in, there was a certain calmness and peace reigns. In the past, expletives were uttered on seeing a piece of summon on the windscreen. Today, when I see a summon ticket on my windscreen, I said, "Thank you for minding me about the donation." Honestly speaking, a summon means you have done something wrong and you have to accept a punishment. So be gracious to admit and pay up. But the lesson is, "Dont do it the next time."

In trading, we always advise, “Follow the trend”. In driving, we still advise the same, “Follow the traffic rules.” The Police advise, “If you drink, don’t drive; if you drive, don’t drink.” Rules followed means good habits created. Good habits lead to orderly and gracious society. Bad habits lead to chaos and a jungle-mentality society. A successful society is a society filled with the right habits. Similarly, a successful trader is typically the one with the right habits or the one with a set of crystal- clear rules. 

In trading, if you break the rules you break your bank. CAO did it. Barings did it. Enron did it. Some hedge-funds did it. Investors did it - investing in companies from who-knows-where Bahamas and Cayman Islands.

In investing, everybody has two types of money:
1) cannot-afford-to-lose money and
2) can-afford-to-lose money.

The rules you apply for the first category will determine the future of your lifestyle – comfortable living or poverty living. The ratio between the two types of money is a function of your age – the older you are, the lesser of the later. That is to say, if you are young and able, you surely have more years to earn money compared to if you are 50 and over the hill.

For the unemployable and talenperience folks, the encouragement and the Royal Road is: “Be an entrepreneur.” It means jump into the big ocean and swim with the sharks! But there is a new world out there where the cost of setting up a business is peanut: a pc, a broadband and an initial margin capital. It is TRADING! But the small print which many failed to read is: 90% are losers! 10% win.

Yes, not many swimmers in the Ocean can survive the sharks. Yet, the industry supported by the internet technology is experiencing exponential growth. Only 10% are winners! It is a good business if you look at it from the winner’s angle. So the next question to ask is: How to be one of the winner? A part of the answer is – you need rules!

But prior to, you need training and an understanding of the business of trading. After that, you need to understand yourself. The conduct of trading means you need to understand your tools and how and when to apply your tools. In Mao Tze-tung’s principle of guerilla warfare or Sun Tzu’s principle of war, it means you need to know, “How to fight, where to fight and when to fight.” Of course, more important than that is, “When and where not to fight.” You don’t need to be a professor to be streetsmart. You can simply replace the word ‘fight’ with ‘trade’. The world will be at peace if Osamarists wisen to trade than to fight.      [1] This $ number cannot be verified but the order to clob bad driving behavior is true and was publicly announced and warned. [2] If it is the USA, George Bush will install helicopter surveillance while the Army will put their Apache to profitable use.

My disclaimer: The above are my personal ICNFeel views and subscribers/readers who read must bear full responsibility for their future trading actions including transmission of this article. The author wrote in a light hearted personal capacity with the purpose of providing wisdom, knowledge and education to his circle of subscribers only. There is no ulterior motive to defame, distort or discredit. The author is willing to remove or delete if any line or word is defamatory or cause anyone unhappiness or discomfort. Thank you for your understanding. The author can be contacted at HP 97978988. 

20 Sep 2006: Thailand’s Military Coup 19th Sep 2006 Sep 19th 2006 – while PM Thaksin was in US attending the UN Meeting, soldiers back home staged a coup. Tanks rolled into Parliament house at around 10.45 pm. PM Thaksin made an announcement mentioning the uncertainty of his Premiership in the wake of the coup. The last military coup was in 1991. Almost all Asian markets were down with the STI off by 30 points at opening and by noon, it has recovered and stabilized somewhat. The STI closed down 7 points at 2531.

Singapore companies with exposure in Thailand[1]
1. SingTel has S$870m stake in AIS. AIS contributed 7% to Singtel profit.
2. DBS holds stakes of about 16% in TMB Bank (Thai Military Bank) and a 40% stake in Capital. TMB was last traded at Bht3.24 and the stake is estimated to be worth about S$362m.
3. UOB’s wholly owns UOB Thai, which delivered net profits of S$42m in 1H06 versus S$882m for UOB (excluding exceptional gains).
4. THBEV (Thai Beverage Beer) listed in Singapore is a beverage manufacturer.
5. City Developments currently has 1 project in Thailand
6. CapitaLand has 40% joint venture interest in Thailand estimated at about S$300m exposure.
7. Keppel Land has 2 building projects in Thailand.
8. TAC (Total Access Communications) a mobile operator
9. Keppel Corp has infrastructure interest
10. Ascott Group runs 5 serviced apartments in Thailand
11. UTAC has a chip-testing facility UTAC Thailand
12. Magnecomp has manufacturing facility
13. Micro-Mechanics has manufacturing facility
14. Jackspeed has exposure via a automotive unit in Thailand
15. SPC (Singapore Petrol Corp) has office/operations
16. Kim Eng Holdings has stock broking operation in Thailand
17. ECS Holdings has distribution business
18. GP Batteries has sales office
19. KS Energy has sales office
20. Tat Hong operates a crane rental business in Thailand
21. Mediflex sources latex from Thailand
22. Not to mention, Temasek has Thaksin's Shin Corp and a couple of other investments in Thailand.

Thailand’s Woes
1. Tsunami in 2004 December 26th
2. Troubled South – Muslim separatists and terrorism. Terrorism threatening to spread to Bangkok
3. Bomb plot against PM Thaksin
4. Politics and Election stalemate
5. Sale of Shin Corp to Temasek
6. Election due in October 2006
7. Military Coup September 19th 2006
8. Corruption

History of Thailand and the Military Coups
Few people expected Thailand's political crisis to lead to a coup. Lesser still would expect a coup in the middle of the UN Meeting where Sec-Gen Kofi Annan and President of the US, George Bush were present. Least expecting was Thaksin himself. What can he do when 14 tanks surround his Parliament house and he is half way round the globe?

But when the military made its move, it was no surprise that Army Commander Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin was the person in charge. The commander’s position has been a traditional springboard to the prime minister's seat and to ‘riches’. As recently as last week, Gen. Sondhi was busy quashing coup rumors.

1. 6th Century Thais arrived and rule over Siam
2. 13th to 17th Century The Siamese waged wars against the invading Cambodians and Burmese, widening its empire.
3. 1824 British arrived and lord over the Siamese.
4. 1896 Anglo French Accord granted Independence to Siam
5. 1932 Coup against the monarchy
6. 1934 First election.
7. 1938 Pibul Songgram, a militarist became PM and changed the name of Siam to Thailand.
8. 1941 Dec 8th after a brief resistance against the Japanese, the Thais allowed the Japanese into Thailand and to use Thailand as a springboard for future attacks.
9. 1942 Thailand together with Japan declared war against Britain and US.
10. 1944 July after fall of Japan, Thailand immediately renounced its pack with Japan citing ‘being forced’ to.
11. 1945 Under PM Pridi, the kingdom was restored back to Siam.  
12. 1947 Coup by militarist Pibul against Pridi’s government. Appointed Bhumibol Adulyadej as King Rama IX and renamed the kingdom back to Thailand.
13. 1957 September 17th Thailand military coup under marshal Sarit Thanarat. Gen Thanom made PM.
14. 1971 Nov Military coup by Gen Thanom
15. 1973 Oct PM Thanom was toppled
16. 1976 October 6th Military took power.
17. 1981 April 3rd failed coup against PM General Prem
18. 1985 Sep 9th failed coup
19. 1991 February 23rd Military coup in Thailand, PM Choonhaven arrested
20. 1992 Sep Chuan Leekpai elected PM
21. 1995 Reelection after Chuan govt fall. Coalition of 7 parties came into power but its reign was shortlived.
22. 1996 Dec Chavlit Yongchaiyudh became PM
23. 1997 Nov Chuan Leekpai reelected PM
24. 1997 July Baht Currency crisis triggered off an Asian financial melt down and sent Thailand into a deep recession. The Bubble burst in Thailand and quickly spread to Asean nations like Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia. Thailand accepted IMF’s rescue package of U$17B.
25. 2000 Sign of economic recovery and growth which later became a star in ASEAN. 
26. 2001 January Thaksin elected PM in election
27. 2004 Muslim separatists in the south threaten to destabilize the nation, rampantly killing civilians and police personnel. 
28. 2005 Publisher Sondhi Limthongkul began critizing Thaksin for corruption and poor governance holding rallies in Bangkok.
29. 2005 February Thaksin’s re-election was a political first as all parties were unsuccessful in the next election.
30. 2005 July PM assumed Emergency powers to deal with the problem in the South.
31. 2005 Dec the King of King intervened in the poltical feuds between Thaksin and Sondhi.
32. 2006 January Thaksin sold Shin Corp to Temasek causing a huge furor in Thailand and massive anti-government protests. 
33. 2006 Feb – Thaksin dissolved Parliament
34. 2006 April – Thaksin’s Election victory made null and void
35. 2006 Sep 19th Military coup by Gen Sondhi, a Thai Muslim while PM Thaksin was at the UN Meeting held in US.
36. The new airport is scheduled to open in October 2006.

The day 19th of September 2006 saw an end to the colorful career of Premier Thaksin and a sad end to his family’s wealth and empire. It is also the rise of supreme General Sondhi backed by the King of Thailand. The way of coup is a way of political life in Thailand and the Thais generally perceived coups as a form of ‘musical chair’ and a hand on the nation’s wealth. Who suffers? Who gains?
PS: [1] Source unknown. Accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Kindly read at your own risk.

30 August 2006: Oh my God, another Bermuda company! Last week, Fung Choi caused financial mourning for some Singapore investors. Today, another Bermuda company, a half-darling, Biotreat, plunged 31% losing 38 cents overnight. More Singaporean investors will go into mourning again. In 2004, the entire nation mourned over the biggest darling of the year, China Aviation Oil or more lovingly called CAO. Of course, that love had turned into frustration, despair and sadness and hate. On Saturday 27th August, I warned of such Bermudas and Caymans. Singaporeans beware! Are Singaporeans being taken for a ride. Of course, some local companies are behaving likewise, like Accord, Informatics and Citiraya. They were financial robbers.

Biotreat's FY report stated much lower profit but a HUGE increased in "Other' expenses totalling R122M may be the cause of investors' panic. The previous total was a meagre R4M. The company had higher revenue of RM1.46B as against RM1.25B but profit fell from RM327M to RM189M. Looks like investors may have to fly to Bermuda if they wish to know more. Oh by the way, where on earth is Bermuda? I dunno know neither you do. Can SGX help you? Can SIAS help you? It is better to help yourself first, as the saying goes, "God help those who help themselves." What I mean is, if you stop investing sillyly in Bermudas and Caymans cumpanies, your wealth will be intact and your sunset retirement years will be secured. Investing in "darling china stocks are exciting"; it is like chasing wuyas. But when they turn sour, you will need AIDS! Many retirees may become state's liabilities.

I am tired of Chinese companies. First, China is too far from here. Second Bermuda and Cayman are nowhere. Third, the greed and dishonest culture among chinese chinese is a vast ocean apart from chinese singaporean. In the reign of Lee Kuan Yew, he had unknowingly bred a generation of very straight forward upright thinking citizens. To blame him is not fair. Rather we should blame ourself for our inability to control our greed and our desire to have "fun riding chinese dragons".

Who will surprise us next week? I hope none. It is better to park your nesteggs in solid companies like OCBC, UOB and DBS banks or companies like SemCor, KepCor, Capland, STEngg etc. You can sleep in peace that they will not cook the book, they will not siphon off profits and assets, they will work their butt to improve the performance as they were paid handsomely, they will not collude to dilute your investment, they will reward you with dividends and bonuses than shocking surprises, and lastly, they will answer if you call an enquiry, and if you complain they will urgently call for a meeting among the Board of Directors. And if you suspect something is amiss, you can still call the CAD or tell "The Old Man of Singapore". It wont be too late. In Bermudas and Caymans, it is too far and definitely too late. The Buddha of Wealth aka Warren Buffett, preached "The first rule is not to lose money and the second rule is to remember the first rule." I asked, "How can I not lose money?" And the Buddha said, "Choose the right company!" Yes, it sounds like our father's advise and golden rule, "Choose the right friends."

Do it like Warren Buffett! Our children will be growing up as we grow older. It is time and will be wise to inculcate in them a culture of safe investing, investing in big guns blue chips (LKY or TLC Ribbons grade) rather than those "ching cheong fun chink stocks", and the investing motto the children should adore is: "Do It Like Warren!" not Bend It Like Chinks.

The "I dunno what companies to invest" excuse! This is not a good excuse. In fact, you can find 100 top sgx companies with earnings record in my charting website in the filter folder. My charting software erases this excuse. Some of the top earners in Sgx are DBS, UOB, OCBC, HKLand, SembCor, KepCor and so on.

This article does not imply that all foreign registered companies are bad but investors/buyers must always stick to this rule, "Buyers beware" or "Investors beware". There are risk in investing and every investors must assume the risk. Therefore, look before you leap. As I mentioned in my book, The Joseph Cycle, the gun is in your hand, shoot all you want but be responsible and accountable for the outcome. Be smart, be wise, be prepared! It is wise to know the "trend" and source of financial disasters and deceits.

Tomorrow, the UN will impose sanction against Iran. Tomorrow, Singavestors will impose sanction against Bermudas and Caymans.

My disclaimer: The above are my personal ICNFeel views and subscribers/readers who read must bear full responsibility for their future trading actions including transmission of this article. The author wrote in a light hearted personal capacity with the purpose of providing wisdom, knowledge and education to his circle of subscribers only. There is no ulterior motive to defame, distort or discredit. The author is willing to remove or delete if any line or word is defamatory or cause anyone unhappiness or discomfort. Thank you for your understanding. The author can be contacted at HP 97978988.

27 August 2006: 31 August 2006 is just 4 days away. The world pray for peace and hope Iran can stand down and remodify her Nuclear ambition.

Over the weekend, rumor-mongrels said one company cooked the book. The two days of sharp price declines in Fung Choi was cause for alarm. Checking around with a broker, it was baseless so far. But from the trading point of view, market psychology is a very potent force. It is one of the three key factors influencing price movements. Psychology when unleashed can fell even the strongest tree. Short term and intraday traders must never omit the power of psychology in their trading activity.

Checking SGX website, I realized Fung Choi was registered in Bermuda. Where is Bermuda? Do you know? Many listed Sgx companies were registered under "Others". Where is "Others"? Well, SGX refers to Cayman Island. Where is Cayman Island? If you do not know where is Cayman Island, why bother to invest in the company? From CNN tonight, I found out that Cayman Islands is between Jamaica and Cuba. So if your investment goes sour, please take a plane to Cayman, transitting through Cuba or Jamaica. You may be able to shake Fidel Castro's hand.

Some of the listed companies registered in Bermuda are Synear, FungChoi, Chinacast, ChinaFlex, Chinatranscom, Chinainfra, ChinaHong, ChinaPaper, Celestial, C&O Pharm, Colorland, Contel, CourageMarine, CreativeMas, CDW, CMTel, Shanghai Turbo etc and under "Others"/Cayman are ChinaSky, ChinaSky, ChinaEss, ChinaMobil, ShanghaiTurbo etc. The list is not complete but you can find more at Listing by Countries Personally, in the past, we had a few bad investing experience in companies registered outside of Singapore! I am sharing my bad experience with you. You learn from others' mistake and dont pay from you pocket.

If you are investing your precious nesteggs and CPF (after 55 years you can withdraw your money), check the country of incorporation first. Then, select good companies applying simple fundamental reasons and logics. Do you know that Warren Buffett was a simple man investing in proven brick and mortar companies, applying simple rules, yet he became the richest man in the world. Ideally, select locally registered 'proven' companies and save the costly flight to Cuba should things go sour. After 55 years, most of us have little chance of being employed (except maybe a cleaner at the hawking centre) and earn the old fat pay. Therefore, preservation of wealth is very important and must be handled with wisdom. Taking high risk should not be contemplated we do not have the earning capacity anymore. Ideally, if you want to trade the stock market, first acquire knowledge or learn how to do it. You will need to spend some money and educate yourself on the subject of stock investment and trading for a living. FYI, we run courses monthly. In October, we will be running our 15th course. If you wish to know more, please call Vivien at 9843-9884.

23 August 2006: Some investors jumped into the stock market thinking that the PM's speech was bullish. Wonder how they come to that conclusion. I was goose-pimpled when he said Oil prices could rise to $80, $100 maybe $150, and should it happen, it will trigger a global recession. The question will be: What can cause Oil price going to $150 per barrel?

Iran! The UN has set 31 August Ultimatum date for Iran to un-Nuke or face being de-Nuke by force. Mr Bush is very determined to do that and think Iran is a threat to the world. This brings to mind the Second World War. Years before WWII, the Americans warned the Europeans about Hitler's dangerous ambition and his search for Nuke. But the Europeans chose not to antagonised the Germans. So they let Hitler raped one country after another. The next morning, the Europeans were begging the Americans for help. America was unwilling at first until Japan bombed Pearl Harbor. In the end, it cost half a million American lives. The deaths in Europe was a staggering FORTY million.

Are we going to repeat the lesson of World War II? Do you think Iran will be different from Germany? Isnt it better to be safe than be sorry? It is always wiser to nib the problem at its bud before it become a cancer. Wise men foresee the future and they take painful measures to avert potential crisis that can cost collossal damage. Who will be safe if Iran has Nuclear? Nuclear is a weapon that can destroy the entire world, and if it falls into the wrong hand, we will have to live in a world of uncertainty. Nations must matured and responsible before they can be trusted with something as potent as Nuclear. What if Iran will to sell mini-Nuke to terrorists? To keep the peace, we will all have to bow down to Iran and sleep at their feet or risk being decimated. Some people think the world is different today. Three thousand years ago, they fought big wars. 50 years ago, they fought big war. They did not learn.

On the 19th of August, I warned about Singpost as follows: "Singpost has lost its monopoly. Fund managers and investors will be dumping this stock. Prior to, Singpost has been a bit of a darling and dividend play. Losing your monopoly is a grave matter. Will it drag the entire market down?"

For two days nothing seem to happen. Then today, it crashed. Stock market is a gentle market. It gives ample time for traders to get out. But if you refuse, then the market will get vicious and maul you like a tiger. What is the downside now? How about back down to IPO level? In the case of Singpost, there is a negative change in its fundamental - losing your monopoly is a big deal. And it came in a surprise. Well, if you happen to have this stock and you sold out on Monday, thank your lucky star that you read and follow ICNFeel.

Of late, I am receiving Thank You emails from readers and subscribers. They gave high marks for my writing and they enjoy reading the stuff I dished out from thin air. Honestly, I wrote from my hip. I wrote instinctively and I dont even have time to check the stuff. Thankfully, praise be to God, it has been fine, interesting, enlightening and helpful.

One top banker sent Thank You for warning about market top in April. He cc'ed my ICNFeel to his biggest customer. Of course, I wasnt paid a cent but only received 'glory'. But what if I got it wrong and they lost money? Will I get tomatoes and cucumbers? I wonder. Ah! Just enjoy what my little head manufacture and dont complain about who uses the output. It is my passion that drive me to write and keep on writing. Technical Analysis is my life's passion. My inspiration is from Heaven.

There are many improvements in the Applet Charting. You can now view Top 100 Earnings, Top 100 EPS, Top 100 NAV, Top 30 Volume, Top 30 Gainers and Top 30 Losers. A click on the stock name will load the chart instantly. All these under the PREMIUM folder which is currently on free trial. Enjoy this stuff but if you can support the Charting Applet.

20 August 2006: The Prime Minister of Singapore had spoken. He identified three growth areas; bio-medical sciences, water and interactive multi-media. But he also identified two areas of concern: terrorism and oil prices. He mentioned the Middle East conflict has the potential to drive oil prices to as high as $80, $100 or $150. Should oil prices rise to $150, the world will suffer another global recession. Iraq, Iran and Israel are the key actors in today's uncertainties.

Tonight's speech was his best. He was much more relax and comfortable. He managed to convey a feeling of confidence and security to Singaporeans. I think Singaporeans are bless to have such a team of leaders who are able to touch-heart with the younger generations, create jobs for the young, attract global interest and admiration, and generate self-renewal within its governing leadership structure.

He even gave a 'soft' minder to TalkingCock.com. I was surprised he highlighted this website. I guess TalkingCock.com will reinvent and become TalkingFact.com in future. They should not indulge in talking rubbish and sending out wrong signals. Freedom of speech must be accompanied with accountability and responsibility.

Singaporeans are now busily preparing for the IMF Meet this 10th September. Many will be looking forward to be gracious host to 16,000 delegates. But after the Meet, the 16,000 happy delegates will go home and they will share what they had seen and experience to 48,000 back home. Singapore will be the most talked about nation on planet Earth. Expect a boom in tourism in the coming years!

19 August 2006: Bad week ahead! Why?
1. China raised interest rates. That will be bad for China stocks. In fact, there is a potential SHS pattern on the Shanghai index.
2. US economy is slowing down. I think the impact of high oil prices is sinking in.
3. Singpost has lost its monopoly. Fund managers and investors will be dumping this stock. Prior to, Singpost has been a bit of a darling and dividend play. Losing your monopoly is a grave matter. Will it drag the entire market down?
4. Warning of terrorists targeting Batam and you know Batam is a stone throw from Singapore. I will be having goose-pimples.
5. Haze is about to envelop Singapore and Malaysia. Over the years, Haze has been a cover and camouflage for bears.
6. Technically, in Singapore, our index has been exhibiting a classic textbook chart formation - a bear flag, or in wave terminology, a wave B and wavists are waiting for the self-fulfilling wave C to begin.

Warning - dont jump in just because some china and tech stocks are looking good. It could be a bear trap. I could be as wrong as I am right but I rather not take the risk to fish in dangerous waters.

It was a very fruitful Saturday for 30 students who attended the free tutorial on Pattern reading. Next Saturday will be the final session. It was a good refresher for many of them. But to the new learners, this was an opportunity to see first-hand the brush and strokes of a master technician. Hearing the lecturers speak itself brought forth confidence. I am really amazed by their interest (passion lah) to learn despite the body crushing sitting. It was a wonderful Surprised to be able to pack in 30+ students! But at times, it sounded like a fish market when everyone started talking. See you next Saturday, folks!

17 August 2006: This STI chart should wake you up! Is it bullish or bearish? In fact, it looks like classic textbook formation. Do you know what these patterns are and its significance? If you understand TA you will understand what the chart represents.

Beware - August 31 is UN's dateline for Iran! After this date, the multi-national forces with the blessings of UN, will have the right to strike! Either Iran de-nuke or they un-nuke Iran.

September 10th, Singapore will be host to 15,000 visitors for the IMF Meeting. Dealers said the market is having a window dressing. The rule will be "Buy on rumor or before event and sell when it becomes fact." The peace in Lebanon is no peace at all. Expect more conflicts down the road. As long as Hizbollah exist and Iran continuing to be its Godfather, Israel will have no peace. Iran has said repeatedly that Israel should be wipe of the planet. As a father, I will, without hesitation, spank my child for saying an equivalent; because if I dont, he will grow up to be a bully, and no father likes that. Iran's uncontrollable verbal rhetoric is as good as inviting trouble.

The months of August, September and October are notorious months. Fund managers and the old pro know that. So they take extra precaution. Also beware of haze which can choke off tourism.

The fallout from the London Terrorism has yet to be measured. Malaysia is facing an internal crisis - the old PM is trying to overthrow the new PM. The real loser is Malaysia. China is forcing companies to cool down or slow its growth.

14 August 2006: Time is not right. It is post NDP and the on-going Ghost Festival celebrations. Technically, the STI chart pattern is not right also - it seems to be stalling and waiting for an opportunity to go crashing down. Who knows there may be bad news which we do not know yet.

Yesterday, I met a friend and he told me his stockory (stock story): he was up (profit) four months and in the month of May, he blew all his profits and burnt a big hole in his profit. He has been in the business for 10 years and every now and then, the market caught him and tore him apart. The same old mistake reappeared - failure to take loss. He failed to listen to the trend. He failed to be by himself - he was trading with a gang of buddies and the gang was wrong and the gang was busted. In desperation, they averaged down on losing positions. At the bottom of the decline, they finally gave in and surrender to the market. Every one of them lost a bomb - 500 lots long and 20 cents down = S$100,000! I can only feel sad for my friend and I can only pray that I will be spared making the same mistake.

But when it comes to trading, our destiny is in our hand. Traders repeatedly make the same fatal mistakes, now and then. Why? Their weakness appears when they least expect it. Did they attend school? Were they trained? Many traders think trading can be self-developed. Trading needs schooling. To be a doctor, one needs to spend five years studying and passing examinations. To be a lawyer, one needs 4 years of education. To be a trader, how many years of training and education will it take?

There are many pundits promising instant success after a two or three days seminars. This is day dreaming. It took the banks, two years to groom and train a trader/dealer, probably costing $1-2M. So learners must beware of false promises. One student told me, a certain speaker told him he will be able to make $40,000 after 3 days training! Dont you think it will be better to let the trainer trade your money and on a 50:50 profit-sharing? Human beings are gullible and they easily fall prey to such talks and gimmicks.

A trading career takes time and years to nurture and develop. There will be ups and downs. There will be more mistakes in the beginning. In the beginning, a trader will be more daring and aggressive but over time he mellows down and realize the path to success is a battle inside himself. It is a journey and taking one step at a time. The answer is not in the hurrying but in patience. Lets not delude ourselves - there is no such thing as instant success. If there is it is found only in Neverkingdom!

09 August 2006:

08 August 2006:

Happy Birthday Singapore!

The country I was born
The country I love and cherish
The country I must defend
The country I am proud to be
My patriotism unbounded
I am one with thee.

The world in brief:
Mount Mayon in Philippine is about to erupt.
China is facing numerous Typhoons
USA is into the Hurricane season now
Japan's PM is dammed on visiting Yasukeni Shrine much to the disfavor of S.Korea and China
World Oil prices rise above $75!
Middle East is in fire
Israel is dammed on crippling Hezbollah
Iraq is near to civil war.
Iran is dammed on going nuclear.
UN sets 31 August dateline for Iran
Global interest rates are rising
Chinese govt is seeking to cool its economy again
Malaysia's PM is squarely facing a cunning Mahathir
Thailand is back to Election again
US' deficit is becoming an uncontrollable demon
India plans a multi-crores MRT project for Bangalore
Indonesia has invited Singapore to help spur its economy!
Singapore is busy preparing to host 16,000 visitors this September in the IMF Meeting.

.
.....................
The Little Red Dot is the best!
21 dots salute to Singapore.

06 August 2006:3 Free workshop tutorials on Practical Lesson on Pattern Recognition for SSAR students only on Saturdays from 2pm to 4 pm, on the 12th, 19th and 26th August 2006. Please register early with Vivien. Max is 25-30 students.

More Foreign Talents needed by Singapore Republic. But may not be so by Singaporeans. I thought we are having a critical unemployment issue here in Singapore - the middle layer ie the 40s to 55s, are heavily unemployed. I am hearing educated and qualifed Singaporean executives are turning to taxi-driving. As a parent, I will have to spend and invest 20 years of my money to educate my children. Will they have to beg for a job after spending twenty years in school? If so, I may have to rethink my strategic plan. Why send them to school when jobs are given to foreigners? Would not it be better if I train (send them to School of Trading) them to trade. How much will it cost to educate them in trading? I believe if a child starts trading at the age of 13, he will be a super trader by 23. It is the same in football where boys start at age 6 and by 16, they are superboys commanding a value of $10M bucks!

Singaporeans in their 40s to 50s have a huge risk - they face unemployment as employers prefer to employ the younger and forego the older-n-more-expensive workers. So what if they are experienced. I guessed many employers do not care about your experience; they only care about "cost". These category of Singaporeans, if they are wise, as they approaches that risk-age group, they must start to plan and build a "second income or a second career". The choices they have are MLM, FP, Entrepreneurs, Taxi-driving (no way for me!), Lecturing/Seminar and some go for Trading (sorry, many end as losers as this occupation requires proper training and guidance). The extreme Singaporeans go for Migration; to another country where survival cost is lower ie where you can stretch your nestegg-reserves by another 10-15 years, in particular Australia, New Zealand, India and Malaysia; countries where the living standards and security are comparable. Of course, there is a future consequence for your children and grandchildren - they will always be "Second-class Citizen".

Like Singapore, Israel risks a miscalculation. If the entire Middle East is to rise up as one human race and encourage or inspired to charge into Israel, bare-handed carrying their children on their shoulders, Israel will collapse. In a desperate situation, human beings may do that. Only if they can find a "savior", a divine martyr! So I guess they will know when to stop pounding and shelling the Lebanese citizenry. There is a wise-saying among Chinese, "Do not push a Tiger to the wall." If you do so, the Tiger will spring forth to attack you - it is a do-you-may-not-die and dont-do-you-will-surely-die situations. There is a chance in the earlier and desperate people and even a coward will do that.

Singapore has progress from 3rd World to First World Nation but why are many Singaporeans of that risk-age group still has to face insecurity and job risk? Why are workers who have sacrificed 20 of their prime years being discarded just like that? Something could be wrong somewhere. Where were the days of job security as we age into the sunset? Those who failed to save-as-much-as-possible early in their working days trembles when age knocks on their door. My advice and my motto for the young:
Save as early as possible
Save as much as possible.
Forgo the urge to spend.
Forgo the desire for joy.
Invest smartly and wisely.

It will be Nation's Day in three days time and my wish for my country is - Bring back the good old days of job security and a decent job for the oldies. I wish our nation a Happy happy Birthday!

Happy Birthday Singapore!

The country I was born
The country I love and cherish
The country I must defend
The country I am proud to be
My patriotism unbounded
I am one with thee.

What about the stock market? For your information, this is the Ghost season. In fact, it is an unusual season, we are having Double Ghost Festival this year ie instead of one month, we will have two months of Ghost Fest celebration. On top of that, it is NDP celebration. Both these two events do not bode well for stock markets. Typically, it is sell before NDP and buy after DNDP but beware, the months of August, September and October are noctorious months for Bears. Big Bear markets were born on these months. Thus traders tend to be extra cautious and less aggressive. On the other hand, Bulls know that they have to ride out the bear months before they can contemplate bullying the bears. Know time. Time is man's best friend. Time cannot be controlled. Even the famous Sun Tzu said time is from Heaven and the Heavenly factor is one of the five principles of warfare. Know yourself, know others and know time, you will be master of man and earth. Earth means wealth.

The question on everybody's head these day is: "Is the correction over? Is it the time for a bull run?" Time is not ripe for a bull run as stated above. On top of that, the wave timing is not over. That is to say, the Wave 4 correction is not over. We are still engage in Wave 4. More likely, the market is near the end Wave B of 4. Which mean there is an opportunity for Wave C of 4 which can carry the STI down to test its previous low, or fulfill the ideal 40% correction of Wave 3. It took 3 years to complete Wave 3. So how long will Wave 4 take? When will Wave 5 be? What are these implications? If you want to know, go to school! Find the best school and best teacher. We will teach you.

Quote: "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing." No knowledge (as good as being blind) is worse. In movies, we saw Blind-swordsmen became heroes. In finance, have you ever seen a Blind-trader becoming winner?

22 July 2006: If the weather is bad, blame America. If markets collapse, blame America. If there is an epidemic without cure, blame America. If the sea rises as in a Tsunami or the earth cracked by a volcanic eruption, blame America. If there are poverty and unequal opportunities, blame America. If there are terrorists and they kill the innocents, blame it on America. America or USA is everybody's punching bags. They love to blame America except blaming themselves. Nobody ever think there is a need to say "Thank you, America." The Americans or GIs are the envy and jealousy of the world.

The internet brought the world together but nobody says thank you America. America gave the world PC technology yet nobody says thank you America. America supports the world through massive consumption and tolerate negative trade balances, yet nobody says thank you America. Simply, the world simply loves to blame America for all their problems, sicknesses and disabilities. Spiritual and ancient masters taught the world this simple rule: Love yourself and you will love the world. Instead, most choose to hate themselves and hate the world.

In Singapore, we never blame others (nations) for our misfortune and sorrow. We blame ourselves if we cannot compete, if we fail to create jobs and stability, and if we fail to make the diverse races live in peace, tolerance, understanding and with a love for each other.

Similarly, in trading, most traders tend to blame others for their losses. Seldom would they blame themselves. If they do, it would hurt their ego. If they win, neither would they say thanks to the people who help them. They will be quick to claim credit.

Out of the blue, Israel started a little war against Hezbollah. After ten days of fighting, the people in Middle East are rating this as the beginning of The Third World War. The war between the Jews and Arab Muslims has been raging for five thousand years since the times of Moses. It is nothing new if time is compressed in one single page. But there is a dark side to this war: through atrocities and destruction, both warring factions are invoking God to re-appear so as to fulfill the promises in their respective scriptures. In Iran, there is a belief that the last Prophet, which disappeared without trace in the 7th Century AD, will appear if the world enters into its darkest age - wars and destruction. He will then bring forth peace and a golden age for mankind. When Tsunami 2004 strucked, everyone said it is the end of the world; there was a momentary peace and love among all nations. Six months later, God did not appear and we are back to the old business - fighting, hatred and war. The 2006 World Cup gave the world another window of beautiful quiet which lasted 30 days. After the world Cup Football, we are back to teething each other and kicking bombs and missiles - the Middle East War is the grand testimony and it promises to suck the entire world into it. The world is not evil, humans are. The world is not sick, humans are. The world is not cruel, humans are.

How to forget the world? Get back to trading. In trading, we are fighting a bloodless war using our desktop pc. It is only money. We win some, we lose some. But at the end, the intelligent traders win more than they lose. That is the greatest satisfaction.

This is my view of the world - how I see and feel. It is my personal thoughts and if you are offended, please accept my sincere apologies. I am a being devoid of color, race and creed. Like everyone, I am a creation of the Divine and I believe the divine in me must love the divine in others.

19 July 2006:
GIC's Investment
Set up in 1981 with a fund size of U$10B. After 25 years, the fund size is U$100B. GIC is enjoying 9.5% growth pa and Chairman LKY (Dy Chairman Tony Tan) expects the trend to continue for the next 25 years. Compound it, our reserves of U$130 Billion will grow to US$1,257 Billion! Assuming a population of 5 million, each of us is worth and can claim a share of US$250,400! Individually, each Singapore's networth can be conservatively estimated at U$200,000. That means one Singaporean = US$450,400 rich! Now, will you defend Singapore?

GIC is looking to invest more into emerging markets and if necessary into the highly lucrative private equity and hedge funds. At present, the funds are invested as follows: 40-45% in US, 20-25% in Europe, 10% in Japan and the rest in emerging markets.

China's reserves is now in the region of US$500 Billion and India's is about US$160B. Both are aspiring to copycat Singapore's GIC investment method and goals.

With the governments managing their funds and looking for opportunities, I believe chaos investing will be a popular modus operandi. I am sure when markets collapse, such funds will be there to 'intervene and support' the markets.

Temasek Holdings' Investment
Setup in 1974, Temasek is no longer a nanny of local government companies. It is reshaping itself to become a major investment company investing locally and globally. It will be another GIC in the making. Temasek's business is being categorized into: 1. Group A (managing and investing in TLC companies like Singtel, Kepcor, Sembcor, Sing Food, Wildlife Reserves Singapore, Chartered Industries, SPC, etc) and 2. Group B (S$13B global investments like Thailand's Shin Corp, China's Minsheng Banking Corp, BOC, CCB, Pakistan's NIB Bank, India's Mahindra Mahindra and ICICI, Malaysian Plantation, Indonesian banks, private equity and hedge funds).

Currently, it has a global portfolio worth US$64 Billion. The driving force behind our economy is a two prong investments from Temasek+GIC and the MNCs. Their investment philosophy is - seek super average returns through concentrated investing (Warren Buffett's style) and investing in growth economies and sectors like Bio-sciences, pharmaceuticals, regional enterprises with growth potentials, industries catering to the needs of the growing middle class like telecommunications and media.

Exciting Growth Sectors in Singapore
In less than 5 years, Singapore has become, out of necessity and thanks to Mahathir, a leading water and enviromental technology player in the world, earning recognition from WHO and UN. The government has set up Environmental and Water Industry Development Council to oversea this sector and ensure its leading edge by setting a S$330 fund. The listed stocks in this sector are Hyflux, Dayen, Asia Water, Sinomem, Asia Envir, SembCor, Darco, United Enviro, Biotreat etc.

PM Lee HL has identified three areas of research over the next five years - biomedical sciences, enviromnental and water technologies, and interactive and digital media. Bio-Sciences are Biosensors ..... but it is involved in litigation over copyrights.

Course: 12th Intake: Technical Analysis For the Average Stock Investors
Warren Buffett invested four years studying Finance under the watchful of Professor Graham. He was Graham's favorite student and the only student awarded an distinction. How much will you invest in learning how to read the trend using technical analysis, how to trade and techniques of trading, why investors lose, and what is the stock investment all about? Do you want to learn a life skill on trading and managing my nesteggs? I guess everyone, after a lifetime's 30 years working, will be running their own Temasek or GIC - managing your wealth and make sure it grows like GIC. You will learn how Warren Buffett's investment theory and Wave theory.

We will hold two previews next week, 26th July, Wednesday and 27th, July Thursday, from 7pm to 8.30pm. If you are dare keen to know more, do reply to this email or call Miss Vivien at 9843-9884. The 10 evenings, 30 hours course commence 1st to 17th August 2006, with two supporting lecturers, and at our premise. We provide proprietary charting applet software and uses current market stocks prices in our teaching and practise.

Quote: "It is wiser and cheaper to pay a tutor and learn something or you pay to the market and learn nothing." Do pass the above information to your friends if you think our course can help them. Thank you.

16 July 2006: First, we watch the World Cup Football from 9th June to 9th of July. It was an interesting World Cup but lots of betting disappointment. The biggest losers were the bettors. The bookies won all. The biggest surprise was Italy won. Even Zidane went crazy - headbutting Matarazzi who insulted his mother and sister. I am sick of Italians and I am sick of their corruption and scandals at match-fixing.

Midway through the World Cup, we went, of all places, to India for vacation, from 1st to 9th July, for a break! We came back with a TON of surprises. My friends, INDIA IS ROARING. The Cobra is hissing. No wonder our MM said the Pacific region is on a growth path for the next 50 years. After the trip, I could not disagree though at first I do not understand what he was saying. Honestly, I have yet to visit China but I guess the Chinese Dragon is already up in the sky and spitting fires happily and cheerily. Yes, China and India will anchor and drives the global economy. There is no argument about this. But there is another country that is about to take off.

Watch out for Indonesia. Indonesia is Singapore's god-father of trading. Indonesia is our hinterland. Indonesia is going to sign at least 5 SEZs with Singapore. Singapore will be Indonesia's architect of growth and Singapore will be their banker and safe-haven for the rich and mighty. We are the Zurich or the Switzerland of the East. Our Tech park in Bangalore is doing extremely well and it is a mighty icon and tower. Now India is asking for more SEZs to be built. India was watching us while we were in Suzhou, disbelieving Singapore's idea. Now they want us to double up in double time. Today, land prices in Bangalore is worth more than gold. It is RED HOT. The 13 million Bangaloreans are talking land today. Everyone is getting filthy rich because of rising land prices.

But I noticed one more thing - the Microsoft kids of India are now in their 30s and 40s and they are driving consumption and demands. The government will be launching a multi-crores ruppee MRT. Oh yeah, India will be going underground. Once upon a time, I jokingly said if India has an MRT, even the Holy Cows will take a holy ride. If Cows can graze on road dividers there is no reason why it cant sit in the MRT. In a few years time, the Gopis (children) of the Land of Krishna, India, will be riding their MRT. There is no turning back for INDIA. No politicians can derail the economic march for a higher standard of living. Mind you, every farmer has a mobile. I saw a gardener with one hand on the water-hose and the other hand pressing his mobile on his left ear and talking. The mobile phone technology has awaken the entire Indian continent - the sleeping Cobra has awaken to the mobile music, and it will sting anyone who opposes its path.

Soon, SGX will be launching Indian IPOs. All I can say is jump in and join the bandwagon....it is early bird catches the worms.

The combined population of China, India, Japan and Indonesia totalled a staggering 3 Billion people. And tiny-dot Singapore is located right in middle of the big four. Singapore is the GEM in the rectangular box. The stars in Asia are bright and rising. The stars in America are fading. The wheel of the world has turned and there is no turning back.

Singapore's GIC is managing U$100 Billion of reserves. China and India intend to copycat our unique and revolutionary reserve management - they will be managing and investing their reserves similar to Singapore. It can only means they will be generating more wealth in Asia.

Turmoil up north will fade away. Mahathir will be history. Badawi will survive the challenge to his mandate. Come to think of it - the only mistake Mahathir made is not to copy LKY's Leadership Mentoring system. During his long 30 years reign, he copied everything that was Singapore. Then he belittled LKY's staying on as a "refusal to give up power". In fact, LKY was staying on for one reason - passing on his experience and sharing his leadership; this is unheard of in the world. I guess Mahathir is regretting today, "I should have promoted myself to SM and then MM Mahathir and 'hung onto power'. That way, nobody will dare to cancel my crooked bridge and calls me Mad." Sorry Mat, it was too late to turn the clock. I really feel sad for this colorful man who does no know when to call it a day and worse still, instead of upping the nation is bringing it down. Power corrupts but in Malaysia, age corrupts. Today in Singapore, we are proud to have our SM and MM. And in the next Election what M will be have? Ah...GM. Guru Minister!

Back to the STI - Technically speaking, the market is still in Wave 4 but it has completed its a and b phases. Currently, it is beginning a c phase decline which means there will be opportunities to 'buy cheap'. Once again, the mega Cycle based on the Joseph Cycle is still intact and targeted at 2008 which is also the year of the Olympic for Beijing. And with China and India on a economic warpath, and an Indonesia realizing it must join the bandwagon of growth, the stage is set for the Cycle to fulfill. Rising rates cannot stop the growth while rising oil prices will act as a coolant to growth.