21 September 2007:
The Master and the Dragon
Buried by the Bars
Drowned by the Waves
Crossed by the Moving Averages
Sold by the Indicators
And yet
The Analyst and the show must go on.

Pulling up his Socks
Diving deep into Experience
Seeking Pandora's Box
Divorcing from Subjectivity
Detaching from Emotion
Eyeing his Crystal Ball
Relentless in his Passion
He struggles to find the Silky Way.

Forever changing like the Chameleon
Elusive like Nature's Dragonflies
Appearing and vanishing like Clouds
Rising and falling like Day and Night
It is like
Trying to tame and saddle
The ferocious Heavenly Dragon.

PS: Above written during my days at UBS on 12th December 1989. It described the difficulties of a master technician and the constant challenges.

19 September 2007:
Cheers! The FED cuts both the Fed Fund and Discount rates by half a percentage point, powering the DJI up 336 points to 13,740 at 4 am. We are just 260 points from the high of 14,000! As I had said earlier, the DJI is technically bullish and has upside targets of 15,000 and 20,000. Expect global markets to reciprocate the roar in Wall Street. Expect the Bulls to emerge from their hideouts and charge. But as the DJI and our STI rise, be mindful, that Oil prices are also rising in tandem as well while at the same time, the Tension Temperature against Iran is rising too.

We are going into Winter seasonal time. Oil speculators and Opec-manipulators will be trying to engineer Oil prices toward $100 per barrel. The real problem is will it shoot through above $100 and sit there? This is one dangerous variable. It is trading at US$81.50 per barrel now.

Yesterday the newspapers screamed "Expect war over Iran's WMD..." War speeches were echoed by the French Foreign Minister. I think there could be a concerted conspiracy among the Europeans, US and Israel to destroy Iran's WMD. Personally, I would endorse it and risk plunging the world into a recession rather than live under Iranian Ransom. Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea who would you prefer? There is speculation that the heroic George Bush may have the last say and perform the icing on the cake, knowing full well that the in-coming Democratic President (I bet on Hillary Clinton to be the next US President) will not have time and the political will to pursue this ultimate act. Economic sanction has succeeded to bring down the North Korean's WMD. But Iran who is blessed with Oil and has neigbhorly supports from Syria, Jordan and Iraq's Sunnis stands defiant and callous to the world's concern. The global fear is one day, Iran will hold the world hostage.

So within the bullish confines of DJI and the impending end of the Beijing Olympic factor, be mindful of the next two variables of Oil and War, either one or both have the potential to rock the world and herald in the Joseph Cycle's Bear Run after the cycle's top in 2008.

This is big news: Japanese housewives lost US$25B on forex trading in the last two months of market turmoil! Margin trading is a dangerous game. Not knowing the business is another. Who makes the US$25 Billion dollars? Usually, it is the banks and the margin operators. Forex trading is a zero sum game. Oh who invented mini-forex and forex trading? The US and Europeans. So, the winnings went there. Who were the suckers? This time it was the Japanese housewives. How did it started? Two years ago, there was a special report by a reputable firm describing how one Japanese housewife turned $2,500 margin into $2.5M profit within two years trading in forex. With our banking background and experience, we personally think this was impossible and not true and it was a lie and an attempt to entice the innocent population. The fairy storytale caught the imagination of innocent Japanese housewives. The greed became a virus and turned contagious. Every J-housewives wish the dream and wish to be rich and independent. Today, the truth is out - the Japanese women lost US$25 BILLIONS of their husband's wealth. All the families in Japan were poorer by US$25B! The lesson is repeating. Prior to, about ten years back, it was the mainland Chinese losing BILLIONS of US$ trading forex through margin operators and banks based in Hong Kong. Twenty years ago, it was the Asian Central Banks who lost BILLIONS of their nation's reserves indulging in forex trading with some becoming bankrupt. Today, it was the Japanese turn. Who will be next ten years down the road in 2017? I guess the rotation could be the Indians of India. The lesson is - if you dont know dont play. If you need to play, learn first. And if you want to win, learn from the best.

Yesterday, news reported that StandChart bank offered a mouth-watering share financing 10x your salary with a cap at S$200,000 to anyone who want to play the stock market game. This is immoral. Warren Buffett, the world's most successful investor said you never have a chance to beat the market by borrowing money to trade. Seems like the CEO of StandChart does not know who is Warren Buffett. The offer they are making will bring much sorrows to many innocent investors in the coming future. A good business must also be morally good and socially responsible. It would be wise for companies to teach the general investors the "right way to invest" and grow their wealth instead of inciting greed, encourage gambling and invite sorrows. Just look at the Japanese housewives who lost US$25B in the last two months of forex trading. Our dear PM Lee Hsien Loong and Co have to be prepared for a spike in "poor and homeless young Singaporeans" besides the "ageing and balding Singaporeans". Ten years ago, we bailed out the shopkeepers. Soon we will have to bail out the young bankrupts!

I am glad to sit behind my laptop and write my thought. Over the past ten days, my website was disabled by a virus. Last night, we managed to get it back and bingo, I was able to resume my ICNFeel.

24 August 2007:
Today is my birthday - my 54th Birthday. It is the 4th year since I published the financial bestseller "The Joseph Cycle - Will the STI rise to 4,300? Will the global markets rise in tandem?". To date, the STI rose to a highest of 3688 before the current correction. Technically, one should view the current correction like the May 2006 correction, as a healthy market reaction. That is to say, the Joseph Cycle Bull is still intact and will be on track.

Back in 2003, with the STI trading at 1,300 it was very hard to see strength in an environment of bears. In writing the book, I did not realized I will be taking a huge risk. I was technically confident that the stock market in the year 2002 was a typical Wave Two and I was very confident that we will see a big Bull run. Little did I realized that I will be staking my entire professional reputation for a target of 4,300 which no one believe. Honestly, in the years 2005 and 2006, whenever the market got into hiccups my thought went, "Oh...will I be wrong?" But forecasting was a breeze to me. It was my job while I was working in the bank (UBS) as the Head of Technical Analysis.

Nothing is by chance. So writing the book was not by chance. It was conceived in Heaven. It was produced on earth with a heavenly flow of words and thoughts. God has his way; he even made sure I was to be the only author of the book. Strangely, on the fifth month of writing, a psychic told me that I had trepassed on an ancient secret which was not supposed to be revealed. At first I find it strange and skeptical. But on the seventh month, after researching on Joseph, I realized he was given a title by the Pharoah of Egypt - Revealer of Secrets. Only then did I felt the enormity of the issue and the cross I was to carry. No wonder I was writing non-stop for seven months and completed the book in seven months. Personally, I dont think it is possible for me, an average man, to author and complete DIY (design, drawings, layout, color selection and fonts etc) a financial book in seven months! Unless..... someone was behind me. You know who I was referring to.

To many of the readers and supporters, they consider the forecast has come true and the objective of 4,300 is as good as fulfilled. But I will let time decide the last few hundred points. We still have another twelve months before the Beijing Olympic. At present, it looks like the Bull in China is carrying the torch while other markets are bidding and buying time in order to overcome the psychological baggage caused by the US Subprime woe. Thanks to these people, at least I will have a chance to sleep well and sleep peacefully after today. I think my job is done. I can rest now and be worry-free.

It was a chance of a life-time to pen a great book. It was a rare, daring and golden opportunity to pen a forecast. It was a blessing to be able to do both and well. But I dare not claim credit. Credit belongs to Him who will it. I was given a chance. I was only equal to the task.

Yesterday, I wrote that the Bull Run in DJI is still intact and the DJI has objectives of 15,000 and 20,000. But I do remember there was one brave analyst who forecasted that the DJI will rise to 40,000. Why not? In the late 1970s, while the DJI was hovering between 700 to 1000, an analyst forecasted that the DJI will rise to 3,000. Likewise, many thought this was impossible, but it did came true and very true - the DJI rose to 12,000. Such were rare talents and when they pit their skills, they had good reasons and good foresight too. As for me, the 20,000 target may not be the end top; it is a psychological price target- ie the psychological-number objectives of 10,000 and 20,000.

23 August 2007:
If you survived this carnage you must thank our MM LKY for 'tipping' us off as I wrote on the 13th of July. Then, there was the early 'tip off' from Midas as it completed a textbook five waves structure. If you are a sensitive and smart investor, you could have got the early chills when the newspapers highlighted the turmoils in the porperty markets, the en-bloc fever and frustrations, and the rumors going on about a possible government intervention. Technically, many property stocks and heavy weights listened, and their prices were falling before the US Sub-prime hit our shore. But if you are a believable of the NDP+GhostFes effect you should survive this fiasco.

The woes in US is not our woes. Yes, some local banks got it but it was easily regarded as a trading loss, and were easily and comfortably written off. But the global investors were done in by the constant barrages of rumors and gossips. It market eventually was done in by psychology. In trading, there are three major groups of factors that can impact prices - fundamental, technical and pyschology.

Many traders lost their pants. Many latecomers were ripped apart. Those who leverage using margins were massacred. Margin is a dangerous thing to do in investing. Warren Buffett said this is like bonding yourself to the steering wheel - a crash is inevitable. The crash came and they were butchered last Friday when the STI went into a free fall. But did you panic and sell out? We did not. I smsed my students to be on the lookout for the finest buy opportunity - forced selling triggered by margin call. Warren Buffett loves to buy on chaos. In trading, chaos presents the best buying opportunities. Where else can you buy good cheap stocks except in chaos. But the uninformed investors instead back off and worse off - UNLOAD at the bottom.

Time heals and time forgets. The losers will need time to get over this bad episode. On top of that, the season of August, September and October is not favorable to the Bulls. But is the BULL dead? Is the Joseph Cycle dead? To answer that, we need to take a look at the DJI Chart.

The bullishness on the DJI Chart is still intact despite the fall. Technically, one should view the recent decline as a healthy correction of the rally to 14,000. We remain on our target that the DJI will rise to 15,000 and then 20,000 later on. We have been bullish on the DJI since mid 2003 when it broke the Bull Flag, and in 2004, when it crossed the psychological 10,000 and late 2006, when it crossed the 12,000 level. The technical bullishness is still intact. Besides, there are other bullish supporting facts like the sight of Warren Buffett searching and scouting the ruins rumaging for special buys and the FED lowering of interest rates. Then there was rumors of Central banks in Asia buying and supporting their bourses and the recent change in regulation - allowing the mainlanders to invest in HK shares, unleashing the huge purchasing power of the 1.2 Billion Chinese.

With that in mind, the Joseph Cycle is therefore still intact. The recent sharp sell off has created value among many good stocks. Only in mini crisis like this can you find special offers on your lap. For bank stocks like DBS, UOB and OCBC to decline more than 22% is hard to fine. They dont come often. You have to be lucky to be around and alive to bite it.

But the best news was the comment by our MM the earlier Friday. He said the stock markets in Singapore and Asia will take a few weeks or months to recover and they will regain its footing as the growth in India and China and the rest of Asia are intact and cannot be reversed or undone. Well, thanks again to him, our stock market "chye-chye-again" and investors uttered, "Mengkia mengkia wu chenghu behind". MM LKY has the knack of coming onto the market at the right time. His sense of timing is still perfect since his GIC days in the 80s.

So we have two big guns - WB and MM - looking positively at the market. Three, if you add the Joseph Cycle. If the DJI rises to 15,000 and 20,000, what will the STI, KLSE and HSI be? I saw the a couple of HK+China stock charts and I felt a shiver running through my arm. Do you know What is that? Attend my school to know more. I only inform my students what I see and what I feel through our sms system.

PS: If you need a pdf copy of MM's dinner message, email me.

8 Aug 2007:
We are seeing increasing volatility in the stock markets all over the world. Markets one moment crashed and the next moment were back to business-Bull as usual. The DJI is one such example. It was down 284 points the day before, and yesterday was up 180 points, and tonight was down 90 points after Fed held rates steady, but end the day up 100+ points. What is the meaning of all this? Why are markets in such a high state of agitation? Goto school to get the answer.

Since January 2007, we had a Bull run right up to the recent weakness caused by Subprime Woes. But do you know something - investors in the Bull run were losing money. They were lamenting, "In a massive Bull run like this I lost $50,000." Why not. But why? They were shorting (or shooting) the Bull; they were seen trying to stop the Bull by grabbing its horn. Why were they so courageous? The simple reason was - they listened to some wise cracks who proclaimed in a seminar that the market is going for a fall. By now, everyone had forgotten who they were.

In January 2007, there was a local Dr Ah Li who warned Singaporeans that the stock market was going for a big correction in February. It did not until the last day of February, courtesy of the Crash of Shanghai. The Crash of Shanghai sent shock waves around the world but was good for two days only. The China Bulls returned with a vengeance and sent stock prices surging with a vengeance. Many Singaporeans who bought Putt Warrants lost badly.

Then in March 2007, there was a foreign Professor who predicted that the stock market will crash in the month of April. Why April? It has nothing to do with fongshiu. He used a simple unproven craft - he drew a parallel from the Crash of May 2006. Simpletons tend to work and think this way - if the last crash occurred in May last year, expect a crash 11 months later, ie next year but one month forward. What kind of logic is this? It is not TA but proven unreliable observation. Again, many speculators lost a lot of money listening and believing in such pundit's logic.

Who are these forecasters? What were their background? One thing is certain - they were not Technical Analysts even for a year. They were almost like soothsayers. Honestly speaking, I dare not even try to tell the Bull to turn backward and stop running. I dont tell the market what to do or where to go. I listen to the market and follow the market. I do not intervene except in 2003 where I forecasted, using my experience and knowledege, that the STI will rise to 4,300.

Unfortunately, despite putting my reputation at risk, there were few believers. Majority were skeptical and they were even discrediting my analysis with some calling my work fake and lies. But from my 25 years experience in forecasting and Technical Analysis, I know the market was already heading into a Bull run and the STI will rise. In the writing of the book, my initial 'safe forecast' was 3,000 but before the book went to print, I decided on the calculated TA objective of 4,300 rather than choose a play-it-safe, kia-si and kia-su target of 3,000.

But there were some 999 Singaporeans (total book printed was 5500) who bought the book and believe in the cycle theory and forecast. They took the risk and gallantly rode the Joseph Cycle. Their decision paid off handsomely. Some of them told me that they were on the verge of taking huge losses (ie selling out) in 2004 when the market began to rise. Fortunately, after reading the cycle concept, they took refuge and it paid off. The book cost them $25 only. Those 999 readers were better off by tens of thousand dollars with some better off by half a million dollar. How do I know? They called to thank me. I was happy that a simple book became their financial life-saver.

In the world of finance, there will always be wolves wearing TA-Clothes taking every opportunity to call market tops and market bottoms. If they were wrong, they have nothing to lose. What they said can easily disappear into the wind and into time. And there will be many pretenders telling you, "I can help you win and profit in the stock market." Or this, "I have a sure-fire method to help you make BIG MONEY in the stock market." Or even more daring, "You can make $40,000 after three days!" Of course, in a world driven by greed, there are plenty of gullibles, desperadoes and virgin investors willing to buy those talks. They were the real losers; and these losers were very forgiving of the forecasters and their promises.

A week ago, the stock market went crashing. Did they predicted a crash? No. So lets be honest - nobody knows which month the stock market is going to fall. Similarly, nobody can tell the stock market which month to rise. All those forecasts are Bull's shit and Bear's pee. Treat them as just another uttering from educated amateurs.

The best I can do before the market crash was to inform my students and readers about the dangers ahead. On the 13th of July, I warned, "...properties are bubbling and the nanny government is unhappy about it....and cooking some measures, and any time any moment they will do something.." We cannot tell the market when to turn but we can read when it will be turning.

Thankful that each and every family has a roof over their heads. Thankful that everyone has access to clear, clean and continuous supply of water. Thankful that everyone has to go to school and be educated. Thankful that we do not have to go hungry. And thankful that there is electricity every second, minute, hour and day.

We have to be thankful that there are jobs for everyone, and no one has to beg on the streets; thankful that we are also moving away slightly from an acheiving-first-agenda to a caring-and-helping-hand-agenda.

We have to be thankful that the terrorists are kept out and the security forces are ever watchful, keeping the nation and everyone safe. We are thankful for the sound sleep too.

We have to be thankful that we are very unlike America - rich in grand ideas like weapons, space, technology, class and freedom but emptiness and barreness in the soul.

We have to be thankful and proud that our tiny little nation, a red dot in the eyes of our neighbors, has a massive savings (reserves) of S$200 Billion.

We have to be thankful and proud that within a short time span of 40 years and one and a half generations, the different races of Malay, Chinese, Indians and Eurasians, were able to turn a nation-in-distress into a nation-in-demand and a nation-of-envy, and from a world-third-nation into a world-first-nation.

We have to be thankful and proud that our tiny nation is the Jewel of the United Nations parading Singapore as an exemplar for developing nations to follow.

We have to be thankful and proud that within the diversity of races we are able to find peace, tolerance and mutual understanding yet forging healthy competition and still has the reserves of energy to be compassionate in time of crisis.

We have to be thankful to the people who lead and drive the nation; the people so carefully chosen by our loving Lee Kuan Yew - the Father of Modern Singapore.

We have to be thankful to one man, Lee Kuan Yew personally, for sticking to his root, and sinking his future and destiny into Singapore rather than be tempted by lucrative offers as far away as London and New York; and thankful to him for leading all his countrymen, our fathers and mothers, out of our 'Egypt'.

We have to be thankful and proud that every government of the world is learning from Singapore - from building homes to building cities, from creating jobs to creating new water, from streaming traffic to screaming cleanliness, from heckcare-my-health to healthy lifestyle.

We have to be standing very tall and smiling for when these emissaries, some as far as a thousand miles away, return to their respective countries, they were singing the Singapore Success Story to their governments and to their people.

We have to be thankful, proud and happy to be born in Singapore and to be Singaporeans.

Above all, we have to be thankful to God who put you and me in Singapore rather than in Iraq, North Korea or Bangladesh!

We ought to be very very thankful for our nation is truly blessed - no floods, no fires, no earthquakes, no diseases, no Aids and no chewing gums.

Dear God, continue to bless our nation and guide us, light us as bright as possible so we can show and share with our fellow nations.

A Happy Birthday Wish:

We will all be thankful and extremely happy if in time of financial crisis the Savings of S$200B will be there to prevent another financial crisis. In Hongkong and Japan, they did it to support their financial markets and prevented a financial meltdown. Can Singapore do it?

7 August 2007:
America is morally bankrupt. Pastors molested boys. President had sex on the Oval table. Gays can be married. Playboy and Playgirl magazines pay a million dollars to celebrities to showcase their private sexual organs. And Sex on TV. Do you want to be an American citizen? I wont. I rather stuck and be a Singaporean.

America is morally bankrupt - they packaged junks and sold it to the rest of the world's banks like DBS, UOB and OBC. We asked: How come so stupid of DBS, UOB and OCBC to buy junks originating from US.

America is morally bankrupt - they lend to the poor monies to buy homes but slapped these poor people with interest rates ranging from 30% to 60% high. Helping the poor is morally high but milking them on high rates contradict it. The poor people means they are really poor people - they have no money to buy their own homes. Charging them extraordinary high interest rates kill them faster than the loans. How on earth are they going to pay off their loans? Of course, they will default. Everyone knows that - you dont need to be smart to know that. At that kind of interest rates, the lenders are as good as a loan shark operating in Singapore. No poor people can repay all the loan if the loan rates are high. This is common sense, and yet our bankers like DBS, UOB and OCBC do not understand. Why? Because of greed. Because high risk instruments pay high returns. So they had to pay a price for their greed, stupidity and risk taking.

But behind the turmoil and the pains banks are enduring today, is an opportunity for investors to buy good companies cheap. So I pray and I pray, that the bank stocks can come down as much as possible for me to buy and keep. You can bet those with cash are thinking like me - they are waiting like a hawk for the window of opportunity cause by human greed and stupidity. Banks are not god, they do make silly mistakes and the stock market will punish them for it. Of course, some heads from the bonds/derivatives department will roll. They will be hiring headhunters to help them look for the next sucker.

When bank dealers lose big money, they get fired. They then move on to another bank as their services and experience by now, are well demanded. But the investors suffered temporary paper losses. Should they raked in some big bucks (usually before the crisis sets in) they will be handsomely rewarded with big bonus and pay rise. If they fail, it is their luck and timing have finally run out. Someone down the line has to shoulder all the blame. The subprime has been running for a few years until now - until the tide receded and suddenly we find a few banks were swimming naked. I am surprised our banks were a part of the big scam.

Singapore is different - the government helps the poor with cheap loans to buy homes. We have our HDB, the icon of Singapore. Without the HDB, many Singaporeans will still be living in attap homes. Imagine if our HDB, 40 years ago, charged our parents 40%-60% interest rates. Do you think our parents can repay their $10,000 loans? There is only one outcome - my father will not be able to repay the loans; he will default and declare himself a bankrupt. But thanks to the PAP, thanks to one man - Lee Kuan Yew, all Singaporeans have a roof over their heads. Lee Kuan Yew understood the first priority for Singaporeans - a roof over their heads. American company's first priority is profit from any opportunity, even from the poor or the dying. Today, the HDB head, Mah Bow Tan said they will help poor families with deferred payment. If this is America, the offer will be like this, "Deferred payment plus 60% interest rates. Take it or leave it." To be honest, if you do not have intention to help the poor, do not offer help plus.

If I can echo a familiar muslim voice who cried out and rebelled against America, I asked, "How can a morally bankrupt nation leads the world?" America is great, America has muscle but America is not right.

1 Aug 2007:
Yesterday, I spotted a technically-good bank stock and informed my students via sms 7 hours before the market opened for trading. I even offered to share with them my ppt analysis. Looking at the bank chart, I was surprised by the classic technical pattern - it was almost a sure bet on the upside. So I bought it first thing in the morning even though it gapped up HK$3. But at the end of the day, it was up 10+%! It was a surprise - normally HK stocks dont rally that much. It is not the end yet for this stock as the price can rise much further in the future. Tomorrow, ie today, I am looking forward to "average up".

What is the meaning of "averaging up"? When and why do we average upward? What was the technical pattern that drove prices upward? Is it that difficult to spot trading opportunities? Using Technical Analysis we can spot trading opportunities with ease. But Technical Analysis is not all. One should learn how to trade, when to trade and why trade. Going to war, every soldier needs a weapon. Going into the trading jungle, every trader needs a weapon too. Otherwise, how else is he going to kill the opponent. In trading, some one wins and some one loses. To talk tough, I want their money but they want mine too. But if I know more than them or I am more skilful and knowledgeable than them, I am likely going to be the winner. The best man wins. The skilful warrior wins. The smart wins. Not the other way.

Trading skill cannot be acquired from books. Even if it is possible, it will take you years to learn and some school fees; by then, either you may be too old to be interested or too broke to continue. Trading skill must be taught. It must be taught to you by someone who knows. Thus, find a teacher who has the expertise, the experience and the right background to train and develop you.

PS: Dont ask me what was the name of the bank. Unlike others, I do not like to temper with the market. I let the market do its work. Try my student - they may tell you.

28 July 2007:
Download Stroke Identification Size:142K

Health is wealth. With good health, you have the opportunity to create and generate wealth. WIth poor health, you are either too weak to think of wealth or you will be spending a lot of money to regain your health.

What is your first wealth? Health. Not your cash or our home. What is your second wealth? Not your car or investment. It is your family and relations.

When you are wealthy houseflies come from afar. When you are poor, only the ants below will visit you. The Chinese said, "When you are rich, relations gather around you. When you are poor, relations live in the four corners of China." If you are sick but wealthy, everyone showers love on you. If you are sick but poor, everyone prays that you die early.

Dear friends, whether you are wealthy or not, look after your health. Good health is the best blessing. What is the meaning of wealth when there is no health. But there is life and happiness with good health.

In spirituality, it is said that, "If you take good care of yourself, God will take care of you even more. If you love yourself, God will love you even more. If you make yourself rich, God will make you even richer." Help yourself first! God helps those who help themselves first. How to be rich? Save first, then invest!

Beware - Clean wealth has a place in Heaven. Dirty wealth has no room in Heaven - earth is where it will always remain.

26 July 2007:
This is not a joke. It is a Singaporean's lifestyle. It is the weirdest Singaporean's approach to two types of investment - one is buying a car and the other is buying stocks.

Buying a Car:
The price of a car ranges from $40,000 to $100,000. The time taken to buy a car is from 3 months to 6 months. The buyer will visit every showrooms and test drive every model and made. Worse, one idiot went for a test drive and killed the sweet young salesgirl in a crash. Investment-wise, car is a depreciating investment asset; the moment it is out of the showroom, the resale price is 10K-20K cheaper. And the car is good for ten years only! Assume you bought a car costing $50,000 and assume you can earn a 15% return. That $50K should be worthed $243K. But after ten years, your car is worth ZERO. What is your real loss after 10 years? $243,000! Is that peanut? How well can you sleep on a bed of $243,000 cash? After ten years, the car goes to the scrapyard; even junk stocks which go to the junkyard is better off than a car after ten years.

Buying stocks: Your mobile phone rings. The broker said, "Midas at $2.00 is a really good buy. Quick, I have a call coming in. Buyers are coming in, quick." In less than 30 seconds, you said, "OK, buy 25 lots." The broker hurriedly screamed, "OK OK. Done. OK Thanks." The phone dropped dead. Of course, stock prices can either rise or fall, but in this case, Midas went for a FREE fall; it crashed to a low of $1.30 on rumors that Patrick Chew, the MD is under corruption charges in China. You had a near heart attack - a $17.5K loss; and you were heard uttering, "What a bad timing and how come I always had such arse luck - Buy it drop, sell it rise." You put the blame it on 'luck' not on system failure.

Comparing the two investments - one took 3-6 months to decide, the other took 30 seconds to decide. You were very careful and scrutinized every nooks and corners of your darling car - checking inside to outside, bottom to top, even scrapping the paints and tyres; but when it comes to stocks you were impulsive and reckless, and you buy with your ears. There was no homework, no scrutinising, no physical checking and no shopping around. If only you can do what you normally do buying car, you will be a successful investor buying-selling stocks. Right?

The investment lessons are:
1. Don't hurry - think
2. Test drive every 'car' before you buy the stock (compare stocks)
3. Read the brochures and compare with other 'car' (annual reports)
4. Know who are the reliable distributors and provide after sales support (mgt and earnings)
5. Hold it for ten years like buying your car - your $50K stock investment may grow to $243K assuming 15% compound growth

The two tales is a national joke if not a global joke:
30 seconds to buy a stock and 3 months to buy a car!

Thats life. And you said, "Thats what everybody is doing, and since everybody is doing that, there is nothing wrong not to do it." Well, life goes on.... the smart becomes richer at the expense of the silly. Hey...why should we teach the silly to be smart. If all the silly becomes smart, then the smart will not have a chance to be rich. There is a ancient saying, "The wise do not discuss with the fools. Wisdom falls on fool's feet."

Dear readers, you may not like what I write or you may feel offended. If it hurts your ego or your fame, please stop reading, and stop visiting this site to ensure you wont get hurt in the future. ICNFeel is my personal blog - I write what I feel and I write to educate my students. My students dont complain so why should you.

25 July 2007::

18 days ago, on the 29th of June, one of my students phone and asked, "Is the 5th Wave on Midas over?" I was on the road and replied, "Let me check and get back to you." Back to the office, I turned on our proprietary chart and immediately I called this elder lady, Eunice Chua, "Yes. The 5th Wave is over, it is on the decline. Your analysis is good. You have put your learning to practise." Midas was trading about $2.05. Four days ago, Midas plunged to a low of $1.30. The question was: Were you butchered at Midas? Eunice ran before the collapse. She applied what was taught - investing knowledge. She knows when to get out. Now the next question: When did she get in?

In November 2006, Midas began to break above $1.00. I sent an sms to warn my student of an opportunity. Eunice bought around $1 to $1.03. It was a 100% return in less than 9 months. How big was her position is immaterial but I can say she is not poor. You invest/trade within your means. The important things are - she knows how to get in, why get in and she knows how to get out and why get out? My students know the business of trading. Because they went to school and were trained.

Money to make money is the most difficult. Making money using money is finance. To study finance in any University will require at least three years study, on top of that under the tutelage of Professors. So who are you kidding when you are learning from some pundits with a few years of self-trading experience, and you exclaimed "I can trade now." Some even dare to promise "quick return and quick profits".

We came from established banking background (UBS, Bank Paribas etc) and we dare not even promise a student that you can make money. We tell them that our knowledge will first gives you the competitive edge.

Similarly, in November I issued an sms telling our students of a nice chart with a nice opportunity in KLSE. The stock was Boustead Holdings - it was trading at RM$1.90. Yesterday, Boustead hit RM$6.00 and I sms them to say, "It is time to get out and say thank you. The return of 200% in 8 months is too good to refuse."

Notice the similarity in both stocks? We only trade once in less than one year and the return was very very rewarding. Hello, no brokerage will want you to be client! One of my student regrettedly told us, "In one year of trading, I chalked up S$70,000 of commission yet I was a loser." The hurt came in a strange way. He laughingly said, "That broking house was so kind (I would take is as sarcasism) to send me a CNY Hamper as tall as myself." Who are enriching - yourself or others?

Wall Street was so kind to say, "The more you trade, the less you made." But in truth, the more you trade the more you will lose. Ask any loser and he will tell you it is true. So friends, beware of online trading as the purpose of online trading is to induce you to trade as much as possible. The more you trade also means that you are probably indugling in gambling and enriching the brokerage houses. Gambling means 50 50 chance. But are not you suppose to INVEST. Why are you gambling? Most probably you dont even know you are gambling. Only when your capital is down 80% will you wake up and admit so. By then it is too late, Buddy.

Come on, get back to your work and do a honest load; repay your employer with work greater than your pay. If half of your mind and quarter of your day's time is on stocks, you are 'over-paid' and underpaying your employer. You have three choices in life:

24 July 2007:
I read an advertisement in a newspaper, "Low Risk and High Return". It was a trading course offering options and warrants. In the financial world, such things do exist but I can also give you a true and real life example of a classic "Absolutely Low Risk and Extremely High Return" instrument. What is that? It is Lottery or in Singapore we called it The Big Sweep. The risk is $2 and the return is $2,000,000. In the US and Europe, the risk is U$1 and the return could be as high as U$30,000,000. Milions of people jump on that sort of offer and opportunity to be rich.

But if you are a financial wizard, you will ask this acid question: "What is the probability?" In the case of Singapore, it is one in three million. Keep on trying. Techically, low risk and high return are for gamblers. Gamblers love the extremely low odd. They love the thrill of trying and trying and trying.

In the real investment world, low risk is associated with low returns and high risk with high returns. What is the risk profile of Warren Buffett? He invests in low risk stocks - bricks and mortars, stocks with steady earnings between 7 to 15 %, and that will still be around in the next 10 to 20 years, and he buys them at the right price and at the right time; to be able to do so requires patience, determination, courage and conviction. Still he managed to be the world's richest financial wizard, if not the Century's Greatest Financial Guru.

If you want to be rich, why don't you learn to be another Warren Buffett. Buffett is a living example of a real investor. To me, I think God has sent him here to show us a living example. So do not be tempted by advertisements proclaiming "You can made $40,000 after three days of learning" or "Low risk and high return." Warren Buffett went to school to study finance, and he learned from Professor Benjamin Graham whom he call "my Guru". Graham was like god to him. Professor Graham taught him the famous investment rule, "Margin of Safety". Do you know what is the meaning of margin of safety? Goto school to find out. At Simon Sim Advisory Research Pte Ltd we aim to impart to you the right knowledge about investing and trading, empower you with a survival skill for the rest of your trading life. We have 70 years of combined experience to share and to teach you.

Dr Sim Clinic
Dear Student, if you are not well, you should see your doctor. The doctor will diagnose your problem and prescribe the right medicine for you. And your doctor will charge you anything from S$30 to $100.

If you are not trading well, who do you see? Your doctor can’t help. But you can make an appointment to see Dr Sim. His charge is $300 an hour. Is that expensive? If you think so, then let me ask, “Is trading loss cheaper?” Good things are not cheap; cheap things are not good. In the bank, I told the CEO, “A good analyst is very expensive; a lousy one is extremely costly.” Similarly, good doctors are never cheap, bad doctors can be very 'expensive'.

There is a saying, “If you pay peanuts, you only get monkeys.” (There is an exception to this rule – please refer to the case of SPH vs Durai, 2006.) How true. That was the cause of Barings Bank’s demise; a 233-year old iconic bank. That was probably the real cause of CAO’s destruction; the CEO gave the impression that he was paid a lot but I think it was far short.

On the other hand, if after ‘treatment’ you are well and back to winning ways with the market, how much will you be making? What will be your profits? I am sure, it won’t be peanuts. All professional golfers like Tiger Woods for example, have private coaches. You can call then Doctor-On-Demand. Do you think these coaches were paid peanuts? How much is the prize of one Championship? The prize money is about US$1Mil; and what about the peripheral incomes from advertising and sponsorships? A couple more millions.

If you are my students, it is FREE. I do not charge. My philosophy is, "If my students fail, it is my responsibility. If after coaching them, they still fail; it is their responsibility." The charge comes after the free coaching. It will pain them to pay; some hard-nuts need the pain-in-the-pocket-medicine in order to change, learn and grow up.

When I was working in the bank, UBS from 1985 to 1998, my bosses used to called me Dr Sim, while the dealers called me Guru Sim. Why? The dealers know I know what I know, while the bosses know I was helping to diagnose and correct the 'sick' dealers. I was like a doctor to those in 'trouble'. Every trader or risk-taker needs to have a personalised "Doctor". Every organization has a few "Consultants", and for young organizations there are "Coaches" to help them.

21 July 2007:
Do you know the truth about Jackpot Machine or The One-armed Bandit?

The machine is weighted. What do I mean by that? Wighted means the payout can be controlled or determine by the owners of the machine. If the owners of the machine decide not to have any payout today ie to say "No Winners" then they will set the machine to no winner today. How do I know?

Decades ago, I had a friend who worked in an organization was incharge of those jackpot machines. The technicians servicing the machines said behind the box, there was a switch/device where we can decide whether this machine will yield a 777 - Jackpot today. Of course, which owner would want to pay a Jackpot everyday. So the chances of you winning will be nil.

That is why the One-armed Bandit machines are the most profitable department in a social club. Without the winnings from the machines, many clubs would be in the red. But the side-effect is - we churning a pool of gambling addicts whose addiction is leading to many social ills like drugs, sex, murders and families destroyed. The government should know better. Because of organization's survival we are selling out our moral values.

Jackpot paints a false picture of hope. It pretends to be an entertainment but it is cleaning up an individual's bank. I can tell you that you cannot win at the Jackpot machine - it is a 100% losing certainty. The owners of the machines and the CEOs of the social clubs know this fact - and they are happy to have more. And they are happy to see Uncles and Aunties queuing up to gamble. This is the immoral nature of our society. Organizations must balance their need to survive with social responsibility.

Do not argue childishly this "If they cannot gamble here, they can gamble elsewhere. So let's have it at our door step." This is not a sign of genius or leadership. It is brute argument. It is street talking. We should expect our CEOs to talk sensibly, wisely, maturedly and enlightenly, and be able to rationalize.

In the old days, my father would threatens to break our legs and hands if he caught us gamble. The rule was spelled out clearly and there was no bargaining. That was how tough he was. We were never allowed to even own a pack of cards, much less about walking into a casino or be a spectator at a gaming session. He was deprived of education due to the Japanese Occupation of Singapore but he knew the dangers of gambling - especially, its pyschological aspect ie addiction. Gambling is addictive. One thing bad was my father did not educate us on "What is gambling and why gambling is a 100% losing thing. Since coming to know of how jackpot machines can be rigged, I would not even throw in a coin. Better to give it to a beggar if I can find one, or else throw it into the Singapore River to feed the fishes.

Ha ha, the guy who invented the Jackpot Machines may incur more sin than the guy who invented the Bombs. Gambling wrecked more damages than Bombs.

The real game machines are entertainment. Jackpot machines are real gambling equipments. The Japanese has Ninchinko where you buy a pack of metal chips to play. In the case of Jackpot machines, you insert real coins - 50 cents. In the past, it gobbled up only 20 cts coins. The older folks need some entertainment but not gambling. A manly old folk said, "If I have to lose at the jackpot machine, I might as well be lost flying a wuya for a whole night." Hello brother, .....beware, they come with a companion called Aids. That may be your final and fatal Jackpot.

So what to do with our time? Or how to kill time? The echeleon recommends write your autobiography. Or you can learn how to trade. A psychologist in Hong Kong said, "One should not do nothing after retirement. Either you play mahjong or trade." Mahjong is OK - you can't lose much. Trade??????? My advice - learn how to trade before you trade.

The moral of the story-
Know first before venturing out to play

20th July 2007:
I did not worked in the PM's office, neither am I a buddy of the Minister (I am his admirer and I have high respect and admiration for this Jedi. He one of the nation's Seven Wonders! The world as well.). But on the 13th of July 2007, I warned and wrote:
"Yes our properties are bubbling and the nanny government is 'unhappy about it'. They will prick the Prop-Bubble before it can hurt you and me. They did that in May 1996 by a string of property measures to curb speculation. I am sure they are cooking some measures and anytime any moment, it will be announced. In fact, the price actions on many property stocks suggested on-going distribution as though to herald the coming policy measures."
On the 18th July, at noon time, the govt announced a hike in property development tax from 50% to 70%. And the STI plunged 68 points. My broker sms'ed, "Panic Selling! STI down 40 points." That was not a surprise to me as I was expecting the 'Nanny Chenghu' to come up with some measures to 'cool' the hot property down.

Unfortunately, the crowd did not catch the SM's displeasure despite a headline warning news. They were bloodied in the nose by such a minor measure. Will they be deterred from speculating? No. They will be back...and back with a vengeance. The new measure, in my opinion, was 'too soft'. It will not deter the property speculators. The measures taken in 1996 was hard like a rod. If you can read the message behind the measure, it seems to say, "Nanny dont mind the property prices rising and appreciating but lets do it orderly and not rowdy." I wrote on the 13th July, "Property is still a good investment. It has not run out of date yet. After cooling, they are likely to hiss and roar again."

Quite a lot of late-comers were caught by the news. They were punting penny stocks not knowing that the smartmoney were bailing out on property stocks. If you failed to interpret 'all those telltale signs', it is time you attend school. Why pay to the market and yet learn nothing?

Time-wise, we are heading towards NDP and into the Summer Season. Singaporeans will be looking for oversea holidays. The big boys will slow down their activities ie winding down, and some will switch their interest to the running US bull market. The DJIA is heading for 15,000 and 20,000! Many US stocks are pretty undervalued. We may undergo some cooling or pausing as the STI has risen heftily above 1994's high of 2600 to 3650. On the other turf, it could be time for the laggard KLSE to surge. After breaching the 1000 resistance, KLSE surged to our forecast at 1350, testing and breaking 1994's high of 1333. Technically, there is room for KLSE to rise to the next target at 1500 and then 2000. The difference between DJIA and KLSE is one zero less. It is 2.45 am 20th of July, 2007 - I better get to bed as I will be having two training classes today, 2-5pm for elder folks and 7-10pm for the 15th Class.

13 July 2007:
6am: Cheerios! Singapore's bestselling financial book, The Joseph Cycle - Will the STI rise to 4300?" is going for a 4th PRINT. This is the longest selling book in Singapore. The book was launched in January 2004. Today, it is still selling at major bookshops like Times, Kino, PageOne Popular and MPH. Someone told me that a certain Mrs Lee purchased a copy of this book too! As a token of thanks, we did mailed the MM and PM copies of the book back then. Thats not the reason for the popularity. The popularity stemmed from the market's performance and the book's forecast. Suddenly, everyone wants to read this book after the STI crossed the magical 3000 mark. Bookshops were crying for stocks. I was reluctant but finally forced to go for a third reprint. Reprinting an old book carries a big risk - what if the book don't sell? Authoring is a financially losing profession or hobby.

Honestly speaking, nobody knew the fear and the risk I went through during the years 2004 and 2005. In making a public forecast that the STI can rise to 4300, I was putting my reputation at risk and my neck onto the chopping block. Many jealous opponents were hoping for my broken neck. Even my children were psychologically affected. They asked their Mummy, "Mum, what will happen to my Daddy if the forecast failed? Will they laughed at my Daddy? Will I lose face in school?"

So dear readers, I took a very big risk but a risk based on supreme knowledge, experience and expertise. When I wrote the book, my intention was to help the general investors - to help them get their bearing right. That bearing was - "Stay in stocks. It is in a Bull Run." And I wrote on the book's front cover, "Buddy the Cycle is in a Bull Run." I was not looking for glory.

But what if I were to tell you another facet of my inner feeling, that I was an instrument of His Divine Will and Plan. Would you believe it? The book is not me or mine. It is from Him, directed by Him and through me it materialized. I am a nobody. I am just a common man with a common taste for kopi-oh at kopi-stores. At times, you may see me in slippers-singlets sipping the same old brew. To read it, was a blessing. To write it, was a suffering, a blessed suffering which in turn became a satisfaction. Indeed, a satisfying suffering!

4am: Dow Jones Up 284 points to close at 13,862!

I have said before, "The DJIA is heading for 15,000. After that, it will head for 20,000!" Today, CNBC Live described the market as the "The Super Global Boom". Today, CNBC has finally acknowledged that the world is enjoying a global economic growth. A few months back, they were so pessimistic; they were calling for a BUBBLE in assets and BUBBLE in China. They cried wolf wolf wolf, and today they turned their tails and howled at the top of voice, "Super Global Boom". When CNBC cried wolf, many local investors and punters unloaded all their stocks and went confidently on the offensive ie they went SHORTING the STI. Unfortunately, they were SHOT and MUTILATED. Even up to yesterday, these so called 'good friends' were warning me (as though I was a novice) about a coming global market collapse.

I was surprised some of our Ministers cried wolf and got the chickens (citizens) shitting in the pen. Luckily, the maestro strode in and in one masterly stroke said, "Singapore is into a Golden Age and you chickens and the little chicks are very blessed." Immediately, the STi rallied 60+ points to support his Golden Words. Ah Cha, the Jedi is still a Jedi. Singapore still needs him, even for one more day if not ten more years.

The US market has awaken. It has been lagging behind many global markets. The main culprit was the subprime housing woes. But who really cares about subprime properties? Super-prime properties in major cities are rising, not falling. Sub-prime properties are properties build and sold to the poor Americans. It is like our 1-Bedroom HDB flats located in the old days Bukit Ho Swee and Tanglin Halt. Who will bother if the 1BR prices collapse? I will panic if the prime properties collapsed. Telenews from CNN and CNBC dramatized the insignificant subprime episode and attempted to make it a major issue and disregard the handsome profits those US companies were enjoying from global trading.

Is the Super Global Boom a real thing? Yes it is but I would not call it super. The world is enjoying a global growth; it is across the board from Japan, China, Russia, Singapore, India, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Western Europe to USA and South America like Brazil. The truth is, this is the true result and benefit of a global marketplace - a world without trade barriers or the world is your market. Suddenly, every nation is reaping benefit. Even the high oil prices is turning out to be positive - the rich Arab Kingdoms are re-investing their new found wealth. In the past, they hoard it. Today, they are wise enough to re-invest. This is the third force that is fueling a global economic growth. The twin impetus are China and India, known as the Celestial Dragon and the King Cobra!

Yes our properties are bubbling and the nanny government is 'unhappy about it'. They will prick the Prop-Bubble before it can hurt you and me. They did that in May 1996 by a string of property measures to curb speculation. I am sure they are cooking some measures and anytime any moment, it will be announced. In fact, the price actions on many property stocks suggested on-going distribution as though to herald the coming policy measures. Property is still a good investment. It has not run out of date yet. After cooling, they are likely to hiss and roar again.

The construction sector is worthed a staggering $55Billion for the years 2007 to 2011. All related companies will be reaping handsome rewards. Expect the mega $55B to spill into the technology sector. The world is driven by technology. Technology is the driver in everything. When construction booms, technology blooms. Dont worry, we are 13 months away from the 8888-Olympics. Already, China has prepared Seven Wonders for visitors before and after the Olympics. Almost every stadium they are building for the Olympic Games venue is worthy of a Seven Wonders. Thats how grand the Chinese wants the Games to be. They will make this 8888-Olympics the grandest ever. The economy in the meantime, will be full steam ahead. Stock prices as well. To many opportunists, this is once in a life time opportunity. And to the Chinese, it is "Do or die" and "Seize or miss".

8 July 2007:
Yesterday was Triple Seven Day - some think it is auspicious but others treated it just like another day. But loving couples love to make this day a memorable one - getting hitched just like I did on the 8th of August 1988! Come next year, 8th of August 2008, there will be greater fanfare. But on this Triple Seven day, I prefer to reminiscence on Joseph's Message on Wealth. What did Joseph said five thousand years ago that merit mentioning again? He said, "There will be seven fat years followed by seven lean years, it will repeat and it is from God." Joseph is an important spiritual prophet to all Jews. You will be surprise to note some of the Jews are Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and George Soros. I guessed they profited on Joseph's Message.

Since January of this year, many pundits have been a top on the STI. They were all mauled and proven wrong. While I was away, I heard that our ministers were calling TOP TOP TOP. They have joined the bandwagon of the so-called "early Bears". One day, someone will be dead right and that fella is going to get all the credit. But there is also another category of advisors who are advising investors that the stock market is "Bull run ahead". I wonder what were their views in 2003 or 2004? Back in 2003, nobody dares to dream of the STI rising above the 1994's high of 2,600. NONE. But I did - in fact, I was putting my 'head and reputation' to the chopping block. Back then not even the Ministers can foresee the STI's current state and the state of our economy. Our economy is now far better and stronger than the peak in 1994.

For seven bad years, from 1997 to 2003, the world was battered, butchered and buried. The 'visible' economic recovery started only in 2004. We are only three years into the growth. So it cannot be the end. The financial condition today is different from that in 1994. Back then, the banks made a big bad mistake - lending too much. This time, the banks are mindful of their last mistake and the mistake of the last bull run, will not be repeated. The pain this time will fall on the investors if they are not careful. As for the businesses, there are too much jobs everywhere. Few years ago, they talked of growth in Asia supporting the world. This time, the economic growth is global. Even Singaporean employers are finding it hard to find foreign workers because back home there are many job offers. No country wants to be left behind in the economic bandwagon that is reverberating throughout the globe.

The stock market seems quite well supported. Why? Because of liquidity. There are too much funds in this region and in Singapore. Money has been pouring here since beginning this year. They poured into prime properties forcing a bull run in properties. Also early, this year the Ministers announced a 6.5 Million population target - that caused a panic and a buying frenzy. Now the ministers are saying dont worry they have enough land for the next forty years.

So is the stock market in a bubble ready to explode? No really. It is far from a full bubble. Investors wo were murdered in the past two setbacks are now wise to know that the bull trend is still a bull trend until there is sign that it is over. So they see corrections as natural market actions and a healthy one. And those with cash simply said "Thank you for the buying opportunity."

Every bull run must end with bear run. Every boom will rotate with a bust. But when is the turning point? How do you know it is a Bubble? How do you know when the Bubble is going to burst?

I was in India from 28th June to 5th of July. Good news is I am back but the bad news is I had food poisioning. After six days, I decided to see a doctor and he prescribed anti-biotics which immediately helped me to recover and enable me to sit and pen ICNFeel. Barring the below Singapore's living standard, India compared to a year ago is still firing on all fronts. I was there in July 2006. Today's India is like China ten years ago. China enjoyed 14 years of consecutive economic growth - nobody ever dream of that. India may enjoy that too. The Indians have change - they cut down hundred years old trees in order to widen the roads, they forcefully acquired your homes if needed in order to widen the roads, they are widening roads using US Caterpillas instead of using hands and legs, and they are investing on infrastructures now. Moreover, the Indians today are no longer the poor Indians of yesterday; a widen section of the population especially the "Microsoft Babies" have tremendous purchasing and consuming power. A Singaporean Indian businesswoman I met on the plane told me that living and working in Bangalore is more expensive than Singapore. Like China, there is no turning back for the Indian economy. The nation with 1.1 Billion people need jobs and they have a hunger and a dream - the 2020 Dream.

The twin pillars of global growth - China and India - are now firing and will power the world forward. Even America will be lifted when the tides rise. Singapore is just smart enough to broker along and seize a ride on the surging waves.

There is now a third engine of growth which many has yet to realize and acknowledge - the Petrol Dollar. The couple of higher oil prices has make many ME Oil Kingdoms rich, if not filter rich. They have yet to showcase their power and muscle except one. In the past, nations borrowed to fund their growth and expansion. Today, it is their hard cash either from high oil prices or trade surpluses.