The Way ICnFeel The Market Archive
31 December 2005
Wishing a Happy New Year to all our
subscribers, readers and visitors!
A year passed us by. Age happily chalking away. Tragedies blew its triumphet. Terrorism
showed its ugliest head. In an age of prosperity, jealousy reigned supreme.
29 December 2005:
Announcement 1: ECB Charting Software Ver1.0
Cheers! Our ECB Charting software is finally ready. It is a java base software.
You need to download (free) from Http://java.com the java application to run
the charting. After login, click ECB Chart Tool, then select "Configure
Portfolio" to choose your stocks. The max # of stocks is 50. After
choosing, click "Save SGX List" So select those good stocks for your
portfolio. The software can be detached from the web and scalable. You can
screen for daily, weekly and monthly charts. There are three indicators -
Moving Averages, RSI and MACD. You can easily switch to line chart from bar
chart and back. You can also turn off the volume if needed and zoom in and zoom
out in a breeze. The software is light and compact. The design and layout are
according to what I think is necessary and minimal, and the topmost priority is
"friendly". Now you have 700 stocks in your hand including all the
warrants! And you can scroll back and forth and view the price history of each
stock - some 20 years back! Thats more exciting. It took us one year to arrive
here. But that it is not the end yet as we have to add in the signals and trends.
So far, the layout and color scheme are very pleasant, and I am sure you will
love it.
Announcement 2: Be An Expert in eMini Forex Trading
We will be holding another preview on the 3rd January, 7pm. The course
commenced on 4th January to 13th Jan, every evening for 33 hours! We teach you
how to fish. We impart to a trading skill set from our experience while working
in the banking treasury. We were ex-bankers - treasury manager, technical
analyst, traders and authors! The training is comprehensive and intensive with
realtime analysis and demo trading. It is a certificate course and you are
learning from the best. This is not a 1-day or 2-day seminar. We treat it as a
school. Call me at 97978988 if you need more information.
Year 2006? Will it be bullish or bearish? I am bullish. Why? Will bank stocks rise to $20? Will OCBC hit $10? Currently, tech stocks are in favor. What will you buy? Will The Joseph Cycle come true? From 1300 in 2003, the STI marched to end the year at 1764, +364 pts; then it continued marching and end the 2004 year at 2066, +302 pts; this year it is gonna end at about 2350, +284 pts. How much will the STI be at end 2006? Currently, newspapers are talking of global pandemic, you know it is Bird-flu. Are you afraid? Will you keep cash or stocks? 2006 is the year of the Fire Dog - is it good or bad for the economy and stock market? In 1994's Year of the Dog (wood element), the stock market collapse. Fongshuism said the Heaven and Earth elements were not aligned then, so the stock market had a fall. What about this DOG?
27 Dec 2005: Peace rules the Earth finally. Lets pray for more peaceful months and years. Pray for No Earthquakes! No Tsunamis! No Terrorism! Pray for Brotherhood and Love All Living Beings on Earth! Pray for Truth, Righteousness, Peace, Nonviolence and Love to return from the forest. Pray for the return of the Golden Age of Mankind. Lets keep the D'Evils at bay and invite God and Angels into our midst.
Normal ICNFeel writing will resume next year. The long long break was a good way to recharge my mental and physical batteries. I managed to spend some time reading and researching on medicines and herbs. And I really found some GEMS!
For example, Ku Chao or Weed Grass, also known as the King of Bitter, is one of the herbs offered to Lord Ganesha, the Elephant God. It is a holy medicine easily found anywhere! Grown in any condition and it can be a life saver! I have heard of desperadoes (cancer victim) saved by eating three leaves a day! Believe it or not, Weed grass is timeless, as long as the Universe; maybe when God created the world, He created first Papal (Papaya) as food and then Weed Grass as medicine. The time of Lord Ganesha was approximate 20,000 years ago! Do you want some Ku Chao for your garden? I will be happy to give you a baby plant. Ku Chao is the basis of all medicine. Ohhh, can you accept its bitter. It is really bitter but over time, it can be a pleasant bitter. And what choice do you have if you are chronically sick with cancer. The botany name is Andrographis Paniculata. It is Lord Ganesh's favorite food! It has to be true and good otherwise the Indians would not offer it to the son (Ganesha) of Lord Shiva. FYI, no insect dares to set its teeth on this weed!
Then there are other super God-given herbs like Pennywort (Brahmi. Good for rhematic pains and osteoporasis), Neem, Aloevera and Pomegranade. And super God-given foods like Yogyurt and Honey.
Quotes:
1. "Treat your food as medicine"
2. "Medicine must be cultivated when we are in good health"
So, be well and be healthy. Health is the first happiness! Wealth comes second.
Forex Course reminder: "Be an Expert in eMini Forex trading". We will be running the fifth FX course this January. Those who are interested are invited for the preview tomorrow. Please call me at 97978988.
23 December 2005: Dear friends and readers
It is the time of the year to remember the dead through prayers and at the same
time, offer a little of our joy and happiness to those who survived the mammoth
disaster a year ago. We can make a difference to those who suffered.
In Memory of the December 26th Tsunami victims
On a cool Sunday morning at 8 am, 26th of December, 2004, a giant Tsunami came and carried away 297,000 of our friends, their children and parents, to heaven. (Asian Tsunami 2004)
On a calm Friday morning at 5.28 am, 26th of December, 2003, a big earthquake came and carried away 43,000 of our friends, their children and parents, to heaven. (Bam, Iran)
On a beautiful morning, 26th of August, 1883, 121 years ago, a giant Tsunami came and carried away 36,000 of our friends, their children and parents, to heaven. (Island of Krakatoa, Indonesia)
Farewell to all my friends and peace be with you. Go in peace and be with God who is Almighty and Merciful, Compassionate and Loving.
Do not worry for us. We shall learn from each tragedy and emerge stronger than before. These disasters were expressions of Mother Nature. Nature has spoken and the remaining people will have to listen and learn how to survive her wrath.
May Mother Nature have mercy on us. May Peace descend on all of us. May God be with you.
PS: Extract from page 9 of "Survival Rules and Habits - A Legacy For My Children". Book is available from the author (97978988) or major bookstores in Singapore.
07 December 2005: What did Jedi Master (MM LKY) said today about India and China (IC)? IC will dominate the world economy in the next 40 years. IC are the two oldest civilizations and IC have the knowhow and wisdom to survive. Can Singapore survive? Dont worry about Singapore - we will be their Chu Ko Liang. The USA is like Chang Fei - always eager to fight and to uphold justice. India is subdue and calm like Liu Pei while China can be called Kuan Kong. The three together formed the Romance of the Three Economies - USA, India and China, while Singapore will be their strategic advisor, Chu'ke. The three economies of China, India and USA will be our Singapore's Romance. Singapore will enchant and "seduce" them! We had in the past romanced with Malaysia and Indonesia to form the Golden Triangle in 1987/88. Later, smart Mahathir tried to romance Acheh, Burma and Malaysia to form the Northern Triangle. But it backfired and we were all punished with a Asean Cross.
Everybody is talking about Tech Sector now - it is the sector in rotation. So tact along. Go for the good stocks. I have said before, the tech industry has been in a doldrum for far too long, it is akin to the shipping sector. Now we are going to see a resurrection - soon there will be talk of undercapacity and overspilling demand. Will see.
05 December 2005: STI unchange after rising 21 on Friday - a good pause. Beware of bank stocks like DBS, OCBC and UOB. They are trading at the high and the developing pattern favors a move towards $20-$21 for the yet-to-be-split DBS and UOB, while $10 for the bank that split OCBC. Why split? Whose beneift? There is a secret to splitting - it will allow the common masses to buy the cheap-by-now-#1-quality stock. When one split, it disadvantage the others like DBS and UOB; and it may put pressure on them to consider splitting. Splitting is one legal and artful way to increasing shareholders value without the pressure of performance. Be prepared for splits. Once upon a time, Warren Buffett was the richest man. Then came $Gates of Microsoft who found the secret of splitting and took the coveted title - the richest man. So if UOB and DBS are that those prices of $20, what would the STI be - 2500, 2800 or 3000? In 2003, DBS was trading at $8 and found no takers - investors were shunning the stock saying it was overpaid for the purchase of Dao Heng and the bank was overstretched. Today, nobody is complaining as it is trading at 16.60 and dangerously near to breaking the Bull Flag pattern. That Bull Flag is calling for a higher DBS.
The top guns of ASIA will be meeting in the next few days - East Asia, ASEAN etc. But one thing I do not understand - in 1997 when ASEAN defended Mynamar and defied the west (courtesy of Mahathir), ASEAN went into a financial meltdown. After more than 10 years attempt, Mynamar did not change an iota. Now ASEAN are debating whether to "kick" him out. For whatever reason, mysterious and suspicious, the entire capital of Mynamar was relocated into the hill. For ASEAN's future prosperity and not to incur the wrath of the west, Mynamar should put to cold storage, and ASEAN concentrates on building people bonds and economic bridges. ASEAN divided is ASEAN's fall. ASEAN united is ASEAN's prosperity. Mynamar is just a poor torn in the eyes of the world. Whoever side with her will incur the wrath of the west. ASEAN has learnt her lesson and ASEAN will be smart enough not to repeat it.
If only you have spare cash, try some IPO. If you do not have, NEVER risk your money. Of late, IPOs are becoming disaster in themselves. Why? Maybe the quality ones are no more and they are bringing in junks of F-Companies. If only you are disciplined and understand the subject matter, do try some warrant. If you do not know and are of ill-discipline, forgo the temptation. Warren Buffett said, "If you dont know, dont play." and "Borrowing (include gearing like warrants) is like tying your hand to the steering wheel." Hmmm....he is saying a deadly crash is bound to happen. One wise man speak, a thousand should listen.
4 December, 2005 Sunday 4pm: Ah ha.... STI up 21 points and I wasnt too keen to write my analysis. You must have been popping into my website at least 10 times and probably a bit frustrated finding no wisdom. You must also be wondering why? First, I am used to write from my hip - I hit the keyboard and whatever comes to mind, is what you are reading. But on Friday, I ran out of bullet. Tiredness had the better of me. But as the market was solidly up 21 points, there was no need to reassure you how hight it can continue going. It is up and it will be up further. May be you guys should write me and let me feel your market opinions and give me ideas on what to write.
One of my subscriber sms me and said an Angmore Brokerage was calling for the STI to hit 2,500. But thats nothing new to you and to me. We have been calling that moons ago. What was the basis for that call? Do you know? They just saw a BULLFLAG and now they are howling. Did not we said, "After November 15th ......" There are many people out there always depending on hand-outs instead of learning to call the shot. When it comes to growing your money, your wealth may increase or decrease. Would you leave that fate to somebody's call, knowing not the background of the man behind the call. Be wise. Invest based on knowledge, not on what you hear. Rely on wise people; people whom you trust and who are expert in their arena of expertise. No man can become rich if he indulges in peddlar's promises of gold and fortune. No man can be rich if he can be so easily swayed by promises of rich return and profits propagated by simple minds. No man can be rich if he takes the short cut to success and greed for fat-n-fast profits. The road to being wealthy is 40 years for Warren Buffett and a lifetime for Tan Chin Tuan.
Back to the market - let the bull run, let the bull flag flies. Santa Claus is coming to town and will reward those who invest wisely. It is about time to do the count down - 20 days to Christmas! But as we celebrate, we must also remember it is 22 days to the first anniversary of Tsunami 2004 which came on the 26th of December 2004. On 26th of December, 2003, a huge earthquake in Iran killed 20,000 people. In 26th of August 1883, 123 years ago, the beautiful Krakatoa Volcano exploded, a giant Tsunami with 40m high waves killed 36,000 inhabitants of Asia. Quote reference: Page 9 of "Survival Rules and Habits - A Legacy For My Children". So let us remember the 26th of December.
This Christmas, as we celebrate, we must remember and feels the sorrows of the dead and pity the millions who survive, their plights and their desperation. Blessed and insulated against natural disasters, our children may have taken everything - the good life, the good food, the clean water, the wealth, the security and safety - for granted. Outside of Singapore, other children are starving, they are shivering, they are roofless and parentless. Why not share half of your Christmas joy with them? We should not take our fortune for granted. Teach our children the meaning of Poverty. Teach them the spirit of Sharing. Teach our children the Right Road to Wealth. Teach them the omnipresence, omnipotence, omniscience of God and the Word. Thus so equipped, they will be ready for the future ahead.
01 December 2005: STI up 11 points to close at 2311. You know the flavor - tech stocks. But StarCruise is running too and it is not tech. Why? It is a year-end stock. Starcruise is a December stock - buy on 1st and sell on 31st. Its business is fully book at yearend. The Joseph Cycle will be entering its fifth year next year. 2002 was the first year of the bull cycle, and 2008 is the 7th year and at the same time China's first Olympic. It is gonna be a mammoth event and the Chinese will not "lose face". They dont mind losing money but will not "lose face". They will accomodate Taiwan's tantrum in the run up to the Olympic but it will be a different matter after. Poor Aussie Nguyen - he took a big gamble and failed. He will be hanged. He risked his life for a bundle of dirty money. He was prepared to die in the first place. When it comes to trading, we must never adopt a "do-or-die" attitude. Warren Buffet's first rule "Never Lose Money" should be change to "Never Lose Your Life". When we have a life, we have a chance. Dead means no chance at all. The Way of the Generals says, "Lose a little and survive, then wait for another chance to gain victory." This essentially is what trading is all about. Winning is all about opportunities and the seizing of opportunity. Since mid-November, the opportunity was unfolding in our stock market - tech stocks. In the past few days, it has accelerated. It is coinciding with the year-end Bull Run. How long will it last? One month, two months, four months or more?
We all want to be rich. Who wants to be poor? Nobody. But how to be rich? How to grow rich? The easiest way is inheritance but you need a rich Dad or a rich sugar Daddy. For the vast majority, there is only one road - SAVE. How much? Save at least 10% of your income. Spend within 90% of the income. Invest the 10% savings and reinvest its earnings; it is like growing a money-tree. In investing, be wise, be smart and be safe. That is to say, take no risk. Capital preservation and sure growth is the objective. If you save only, you will end poor. Why? Inflation makes your saving smaller and smaller and becoming miniscule. To invest wisely, you need to know time - the good times and the bad times, and ride on the times. 90% of the things we learn in school cannot be applied. So schools should spend 90% of the time teaching us How to be Rich. Next week, we will be running a Teen Financial Course - How to be Rich. My philosophy - teach them for seven years and they will have a chance to be truly rich.
30 November 2005: The STI index may be down 2 points but all the tech stocks were up. Rotation is in play. First was the finance, then multi-industry, then property, and now tech stocks. We have been warning of this since mid November and earlier. But today I heard one kwai-lo from USA was calling for the tech stocks recovery from today till mid June 2006. The reason - hmmmm, tech stocks have been battered down last three years and it is time for a recovery. In the Joseph Cycle of cycles, each sector will have its opportunity and its time. When all sectors are exhausted, the musical chair will be repeated. But when all sectoral cycles are spinning, like a hurricane, it is bubble. Then you should know what to do - run for your life. But that is not likely to happen in the next two years. Follow the Joseph Cycle. Keep your stocks and take a ride. KLSE looks very appetising; the technical indicators look very depress and my timing signal is calling for an accumulation. Singapore is just as bullish if you read today's headline, "Property market is rebounding - govt releasing 8 new sites" to cater to the booming retail and tourism needs of the nation.
Course for Teens from 6th to 8th December we will run the first
teenage financial course for the young from 7 to 14 years old. It is a two and
a half days program, 9am-5pm(x2) and 9am-12nn. It is a financial grooming,
enrichment, education and awareness course for teenagers. If you like to know
more, drop me an email
29 November 2005 : STI is pausing below the downtrendline but it is well supported by the 55MA and 200MA, a technically bullish scenario. On top of that, the bonus is the traditional year-end bull-run and the January effect. The downtrendline at 2310 will be penetrated. Trendlines are very important in trading. Once violated, it signifies the resumption of the trend, in this case a bullish trend. We can all guess the upside objectives - 2500, 2800 and 3000.
Nikkei is now at 15,000! And foreigners are pumping S$135 Billion into Japan. The upside target will be 20,000. STI will rise too. Watch out for KLSE - but let the police-strip-me-naked episode die down first. The PM was quick to apologise to the Chinese government. 15 years ago, my friends and I were treated likewise at Madras International Airport by immigration officials - they were stripped naked and even had to show their butt! I really mean it, and they used a torchlight to shine it. On top of that, we were all "robbed" of our Indian Ruppees. But today, India is changing but not much. In the net, I read of horror tales - they tored your visa sheet from your passport. So you better beware!
Anyway, I still believe in Malaysia and especially in the current PM Badawi. He is different. He will change Malaysia and turn Malaysia into a forward looking and transparent nation. This can only come about if corruption is defeated. Singapore did it! LKY is credited for setting the OB markers. Culprits were punished and sent to jail. LKY's values are HIT - Honesty, Integrity and Trust. If he set the rules, you better follow. So forget about reprieve for drug-smugglers - anything more than 30gm (sorry folks, ONLY 15gm. Error regretted!) means the death penalty. The rules are tough but it is necessary. I cannot imagine Chee Soon Juan leading Singapore - Singapore will become a heaven for drug smugglers and consumers if he is in control! I think he needs to think more about Singaporeans' interest, future and survival. The calibre of opposition parties in Singapore is pathetic. More often than not, I still love Singapore for the tough rules and many donts. It is good for the future and for our children. A word of warning for all Singaporeans - "Dont toy with drugs!" More than 15gm = Death penalty! Learn how to be rich the right way - learn how Warren Buffett become a billionaire over 40 years! If it is too late to learn, then teach your children or show them the way.
28 November 2005: It is impossible to micro-managed the market. You all know, short term trading is all about psychology, technical and time factors. There is no fundamental. Fundamentals affect prices in the medium to long terms. Thus we always here the laments, "Buy on rumors and sell on fact" or you can hear the investors' cries, "When the good news is published, I jumped in to buy but the prices fell instead of rising. After cutting my losses, prices begin to creep upward. It is as though the market is out only to catch me." Short term trading requires a different skill and training. So also for long and medium term trading. Trading knowledge was never taught in school. Why? I spent 20 years studying but not much can be applied except adding, substracting and multiplying. Streetsmartness was gathered by learning from others. And when it comes to trading, we paid expensive "tuition fees" to the market. Everyone did if not 90% of them.
But if I were to spend 7 years in a trading school or from a mentor, I would be one of the most successful trader and avoid having to make silly mistakes, and repetitive too. December 5th to December 9th, I will be starting a new course to expose teenagers (7 to 14 years) to trading and finance, with emphasis on the success of Joseph Cycle and Warren Buffett. So if you care for you kids, give them this opportunity for the next 7 years. How I wish I am 10 years old now and learn the thrill of money making through buying and selling shares! Dont miss this opportunity. Teach the kids the art of growing money. When they grow up and we grow old, they will be entrusted to grow our money successfully instead of foolishly losing them.
PS: Looks like our Election will be forwarded to next year. There are too many international events in December. The delay will be good for our stock market too. The massive capital expenditures and the solid 7% growth rate will steam roll the economy. The Joseph Cycle will be rolling into 2006 within the next 33 days! The year of the Rooster will give way to the year of the Dog in two months time. In 1988-1994 Bull Run, the stock market was led by the Dragon. In the 2002-2008 Bull Run, the stock market is being led by a Galloping Horse. And it is still running!
24 November 2005: STI up another 10 points to close at 2306. And you should know which sector is leading the race. A few days ago, I read an analyst calling for a major fall in the STI. Most people were. They may be right IF the Bird-flu kicks in; and I maybe wrong. But Bid-flu is still a far away problem, light years in trading. If it is going to be a catastropic issue, you should hear of Warren Buffett selling out now, Sir Tan rising from his grave to issue "selling orders" to his commanders and Wise Wee will be withdrawing his $2-3B warchest and hide it in his bomb-proof shelter. The chinese has a saying, "Worry about nothing." A few years ago, jitter-bugs were so sure than China will invade Taiwan. 1000 days later, they are still waiting for that war to start but the Joseph Cycle cannot wait for them. The Joseph Cycle rides on. Today, China is wising up, cleaning up and smarting up for her first ever Olympic; a national pride.
Our MM, Jedi Master LKY is in India; giving pep-talks to the Indians. He did that to China decades ago. The result - the Dragon awakes. Today, he is waking up the Sleeping Cobra with his flute and economusic. Watch out for India! Ten years down the future, India will be a giant to admire. In the past, they used to pun, "If you see a cobra and a Indian, you should kill the Indian first." (This is a local slang and I have zero intention of being racist. It is a educational medium) In the future, when you see an Indian and a cobra, you will embrace both of them. Then there is Japan - the PM has re-ignite the Samurai spirit. Japan went into a 15-years hibernation. Today, Nikkei is surging - the upside is 20,000. So in Asia, there are three giants - China, India and Japan. But there is another giant who is still sleeping - Indonesia.
Our role in Asia - advisor to two major giants China and India. That role secures our present and will secure our future as well.
23 November 2005: STI up 18 points to close at 2296. The Year-end Bull Race is on course. Election is also on - December. Stop the writing and talking; and watch the race. By now you should know what is rotating. There are ways to identify a trend. There are methods to call for a buy and methods to call for a sell. One can apply technical analysis to track the market and monitor the footsteps of the 'smart-money' crowd. According to Granville, there are only two camps in the stock market - Smartmoney Camp and Sillymoney Camp. Which camp are you in? Whoever intends to enter the world of trading must know that 80% are losers while 20% are winners. Smartmony Camp is the 20%. How to be a member of the winning camp? Knowledge is the key. And knowledge comes from training. Warren Buffett said, "With a millionaire bucks and plenty of inside information, you can go broke in a year!" So he decided to stay away from Wall Street and hide himself in a faraway place - Omaha, Missouri.
If Sir Tan Chin Tuan is Singapore's Warren Buffett, certainly Lien Ying Chow
and Wee Cho Yaw fit the bill too. They are our Billionaires and Singapore's
icon. The rules of investing according to Warren Buffett are:
1) Choose the right company 2) Buy at deep discount
3) You must have time - hold it for 15 years
4) Follow the above three rules.
Rules 1 and 2 are easy to replicate but rule 3 is difficult for 99% of fellow investors. Take for example, newspapers and television have been writing and talking how terrible Bird-flu will be, what happen to the investors? Got cold feet and chicken out. In the Joseph Cycle Bull run of 1988 to 1994, there were terrible events like Tian An Men, Iraq-Kuwait war and Gulf War II. Well, many chicken out but the Bull continued kicking, roaring and snouting. The end of the world doomsday prophesy faile to materialize. Some devout Christians said, "God will take care." Why worry?
22 Nov 2005:Yesterday it looks weak. Today it looks strong. What does it mean? Either no idea or bidding for time. Who is Sir Tan Chin Tuan? He is our local "Warren Buffett" Our "Hua Ren Bai Fatt". Our local Warren Buffett. Why?
He owned the following stocks: Asia Pac Brew, F&N, GE Life, OCBC, Robinson, Straits Trading and WBL. The value of a OCBC share in 1947 was $1306. Today it is valued at $476,554. This is 382X growth or 36,489% in 58 years. Simply, 629% per year. In 1962, a share of GE Life was $2850. Today, that share is worth $499,646! This is 17,500% growth or 408%. So who says "long term we are all dead?" Long term investors survive! But long term investment requires a proven and clever plan and strategy. The goal of long term investment is capital preservation and growth. 99% of investors invest to 'satisfy' themselves whereas investors like Warren Buffett and Tan Chin Tuan invest for the next generation. In fact, most of them were having "fun" without realizing they were in fact gambling! The sadder fact is - they were addicts. Therefore, it is said, "80% of traders were losers, 20% are winners!" It has been that way since 200 years back. The winners will say, "Let it remain that way. Let them be blind traders while we be wise."
Warren Buffett is a Jew. He is the world's richest man until Bill Gates split-n-split his Microsoft. Tan Chin Tuan was a strong Methodist. Both are Christians. Warren invested heavily at the Joseph Cycle Bottom years in 1974, 1987 and 1998/2001. All I know is if you have the habit of buying good stocks in a recession, you stand a chance to be the next billionaires. But you must have time - 40 years! You must have discipline to buy only good stocks and deep discounted. It means fire-sale prices. Only in a recession or financial panic, do you have a chance to get that kind of deal. At the moment, there is no such chance yet. Our STI is already in the Year-end Bull Race. But there is half a percent chance - Bird-flu. The problem is - you may be dead before the crash.
Want to be a Billionaires? Learn. Warren Buffett went to school, met his guru-god Graham and became a Billionaire. So can you. Go to school.
Do you know? Out of 465 Billionaires listed in 1999, 135 or 29% were Jews! Some notable Jews are Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Paul Allen, Steven Ballmer, Michael Dell, George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, Rothschild Family, Alfred Oppenhiem and Steven Spielberg. All Jews know who is Joseph. At a young age, all Jewish children know what Joseph said in Genesis, "There will be seven good years followed by seven lean years, and it will be repeated." So if you want your children to be the next billionaire, either make him a Jew or get him to read The Joseph Cycle. At the time of writing the Joseph Cycle book, my hunch told me that Warren Buffett is a Jew! Why? Because he was buying at every Cycle lows in 1974, 1987 and 2001! A week ago, my hunch was confirmed when I just discovered through internet info, that he is a Jew. Who knows I may be a Jew in my previous life!
I wanted to take a writing break but was refused. Why? The STI surge 32 points today, breaking the 2280 and 2290 resistances. Good news came, coincidentally to support my bullish stance. Thats my good luck. But honestly, events occur miraculously at good time to fulfill the chart reading. The good news: 3Q 7% growth rate and forecast of 5% for the year. Then there is new-old news of the economic greatness of China and India, shouldering the global economy. You know Singapore is smart enough to ride on their big backs. I have said earlier that after mid November, the Bulls will be on the starting line waiting for the starter's gun to fire. Now it is off! You can see the Money Bulls making a 32 meter sprint today. Is this a false start? Some sceptics are thinking so. But no way. It is good and a real beginning race for The End of the Year. Rotation wise, it is the electronic sector that will be leading the race.
Where is the end of the tape? Where are Bulls thinking of? First, 2500, then 2800 and finally 3000. If they dont make it by Christmas, they have Lunar time and Haji time to continue running. I wrote in my book The Joseph Cycle, "Hey Buddy, the Cycle is in a Bull Run!" But truly speaking, the economy under the helm of young PM Lee Hsien Loong is running. It is being teh-tariked, hot and spicy. Singapore has managed to remake itself. By the middle of 2005, our economic growth was very obvious. If you failed to recognize it, you really miss the big dot. Maybe you were too busy helping out in Acheh. Poaching employees is on the rise. Companies are hiring. Businesses are expanding. Empty office spaces are fast disappearing. Expensive homes were snap up with a click of the fingers! But still the general public (investors) are shy and shunning the stock market; they are still fearful. They have been intoxicated and driven to bearish insanity by Birdshits, Birdnests and Birdflu, Tsunamis, Hurricanes, Floods, Terrorism etc. Similarly, many Funds, especially those in US, I heard are cash rich and stock poor, preferring the status quo. But when decided to jump in and join the merry, you can imagine the euphoria. They will throw caution into the wind. History will be repeating. The Cycle is re-Cycling.
My conclusion, based on my experience and the way ICNFeel is, "The stock is not in a Bubble state and thus there is no fear of a market collapse. The fundamentals are arleady there and running. On top of that, the Joseph Time Cycle has a few more years to run." So greed is not in the air yet. But when the masses enter the market, driven by Greed and Euphoria, there will be writings on the wall. Do you know how to read the writings?
The Joseph Cycle book help anchor the average investors in the management of his wealth. Some regretted bailing out, thinking that "it is too high already". Their joy were short-lived; they became spectators of the Bull Run. The Bulls may make them history if they are not careful. Holy me, the writing never end - must stop it.
17 November 2005:STI up another 7 points to close at 2261. Still short of the 2280 and 2290 chart points. But it will be tested. I have stated my case and proposition. Maybe it is time for me to keep quiet and let the Bull concentrate on the course it has to undertake. My silence may last longer. Oh by the way, out of 25 Decembers, 18 were positive and 7 were negative. This worked to be 68%. But in NY, the statistic is almost 90%. Dont worry, I will be writing again, to cheer the Bulls lah, once the STI crosses above 2280 and 2290. FYI, the Bulls will be riding on a Bull-Flag Chariot.
16 November 2005: Nothing has change save for the fact that STI was up 14 points closing at 2254. Nothing to gloat about unless the index is well above 2280 and 2290. At the end of the year, we come face to face with December and Christmas. Seldom in December traders would yell "Bloody Christmas". It is always "Merry Christmas" and it is also "Money Chri$tma$" Why? Because the stock market is overwhelmingly bullish in December- people spend more esp after collecting good bonuses, people buy more gifts, people prepare for the new year buying new things, people change cars to impress their mate and show their wealth, people treat their girlfriends etc. This year, the spending mood is a galore with a domino-effect - Christmas, New Year, Hari Raya, Lunar New Year. And with the economy so hot and the Election so suspendingly-near, it is not wise to be bearish.
Some say the Fund Managers use November and December to replenish their holdings and reposition for the next year. Others say there are a bunch of kiasu Fund Managers who will buy earlier than the others, and buy when others are away holidaying, a sort of a one-up on the unwary. But there is a bunch of Smart-Money-Alexes who knows, statistically, that the stock market in December is a Bull's Turf. I know too. I used to tell the traders, "Bulls are Christians and celebrate Christmas!" while "Bears are more terrorists and sided with the Hungry Ghost!"
15 November 2005: One subscriber asked me, "Why are you bullish when everyone is so bearish?" My answer: "Why should I follow everybody when I can follow myself, trust myself and believe in myself." When I was embarking on my first book The Joseph Cycle in 2003, everyone told me, "Dont waste your time and believe that the stock market will rise!" I was faced with discouragement from all corners. But I know what I was doing and I know what I know. In life, we must be firm, take side and face the risk. I know what many people were saying behind my back. Why should I bother. I know of a professor and an analyst who was telling the world that my hypothesis was wrong and I was misleading the market. Against everybody's expectation, the silent Bull raced to 2400 and many stocks went 2 to 5 folds. The path of the market, the Joseph Cycle, was right. I was dead right and on time to announce it. I did not waiver. I did not chicken out. In trading, nobody is better than anybody. You are as good as anyone. The winner knows when to admit he is wrong and accept his loss graciously. Life as a analyst, there is risk. Many analysts refuse the risk and indulge in "if and should". Many who bought my book were glad they read it and decided to hold on to their investments. I simply received a thank you call.
To me the STI is bullish and I will concede this posture unless the STI falls below 2200. It has assumed a simple abc flag pattern which is bullish in nature. Time wise, as we head into December, investors will favor the bull's side than the bears. We have crossed over the most bearish time phase of August, September and October. Time period favors the bulls. Bird-flu is the only factor which could derail my viewpoint. As you know, the Oil prices have receded below $60 and is no longer an issue.
14 November 2005: The STI is flagging bullishly. A break above 2272 is the whistle for the beginning of the long awaited Year-end Bull Run and the Election. Should it occur, it will break through the 2290 resistance as well. That will trigger the STI to test the high of 2400 and probably settle at 2500 for the year. To see 2800 before the year is out is a bonus. The long term trend is bullish and support the STI at 2200. On 28th October, they tried to send the STI lower with a close at 2192. Instead the STI rallied and bulls were resurrected. But after hitting 2280, the market enters into a pause, building a Bull Flag pattern. Bull Flag means bullish lah. Tomorrow is mid November, and the starter's gun will fire anytime. Bulls will be lining up for 2500km Bull Run!
11 Nov 2005: If STI 2192 is the low of wave c, then the next bull run should open up with a 12345 waves. The medium term and long term trends remains bullish. The short term trend is bullish now but the state of the market is trapped in a trading range of 2200-2290. Breaking the 2290 resistance means the beginning of the year-end bull run for objectives of 2800 to 3000. 2200 is the long term support while 2290 is the medium term resistance. To be bullish again, the STI needs to rise above 2290.
Poor Jordan - she was bombed by three suicide bombers. Australians are smart - they act first, talk later. Who knows how what would be the terrible consequences if no action was taken. None can quantify but that would be too late. When lives and property are at risk, act is always louder than words. That could The Brits will have to pay for voting down PM Blair's proposal - when it comes down to stopping terrorism (modern day communism), the people must be willing to sacrifice and the nation must be united in its purpose.
When it comes to forex trading, nobody is bigger than the market and the central banks. A year ago, the three musketeers Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and George Soros tried to sell and talk the dollar down with estm $75 Billion. It backfired! They lost heavily betting that the US$ will collapse. Instead, the US$ rose and rose and rose. They were badly burnt. You cannot tell the market where to go. Rather we should listen to the market and follow where it is going. Swimming against the current is a fool's game. Driving against the traffic is a suicidal trait. The wise trader knows the trend and trades with the trend.
PS: If you like to attend our course preview on 16th November re the course "Technical Analysis for the Average Stock Investors" scheduled for November 20th to 25th, please call Vivien at 9843-9884 or email me.
10 Nov 2005: The Year end Bull run will starts once the STI close above the resistance line at 2290. Time-wise, it should occur after mid November. Technically, it is now supported by the long term 200MA at 2200 and resisted at the top by the 55MA. Above 2290 means Bull run ahead. What about below 2200? Big trouble ahead! Trading involves risk-taking. To lower the risk, the right entry is very important. If you bought at the high, it is difficult to win. If you buy at the low and the trend is bearish, it is high risk. The rule of the game says, "Follow the trend". But it does not mean that you will be profitable. Every trade has an opportunity to lose. But a loser (lost all capital) has no opportunity to trade. Risk is everywhere! Understanding risk first before you venture out. If you go hunting, you risked being killed by the Tiger or who knows your friend may accidentally shoot you in the back or head. But if you know how to lose and is always willing to accept losses, risk is no longer risky. The second rule of trading says "Cut your losses short". Trading is a business. If you know the business of trading, then you stand a chance to survive. If you do not, then you may fall into the age-old saying, "80% are losers, 20% are winners". What is business? If you trade and do not know, then you maybe having fun.
9 Nov 2005: It pays to be vigilant. Australians are living wisely - act before they act! In trading, the equivalent is "If you are wrong, act first talk later." The US 911 experience is a very very expensive lesson. It could have been prevented, if....if....if. You should know the answer. In Singapore, we are always ready. The law came down hard on on the two bloggers who crossed the racial OB marker. If the kids did wrong, the pain and lesson must be delivered or else, the house will come falling down. In trading, if you make a mistake or break the rule, you MUST punish yourself with a stop loss; and you must reprimand yourself. The first is easy to do. The second none bother to do so as individual trader has nobody to report to. Discipline must be enforced. In trading, discipline is the difference between success and failure. If driving against the traffic is save and sound, then everyone should be trading against the trend and be profitable. Today is 9th of November. After mid November, there will be a beginning itch to start the year-end rally. By now, you can guess the seasoned traders are "on the mark, ready to go". The 31st December's tape is 2500, 2800 or 3000?
Fires in France is burning the Euro down. Euro on fire is Dollar's gain. In times of trouble, in US$ they trust. In times of natural disasters, in God we ask. The pain in Europe is Asia's gain. Read the newspapers? China and India will be the engine of global growth for the next 40 years! The stars in Asia are glowing, growing and shining bright. The twin engines (China and India) will power the rest of Asia along. A cooling economy in China means 9% growth rate. What about a boiling-hot economy? What about Beijing Olympic in 2008? Watch the Chinese Dragon and the Indian King Cobra - they have a combined population of 2.3-Billion mouths today; 3 Billions in twenty years' time. The US + Europe combined is a less than 500 Million.
Where is the US$ heading? Forex trading is hot and interesting. What wave is the US$ in now? How high will it go before it come crashing down again? If you do not know the business of trading, do not get involved. In trading, you MUST be trained. You must have the knowledge. Attending a TWO DAYS SEMINAR is not training and can never make you a proficient trader. If two days seminar can give you the skill set, then everyone will be a winner, then schools will have to close down. If you want to be a doctor, where do you go to? A medical University. How long? 5 years! If you want to be a skilful Trader, where do you go? A school offering Trading Course! Schools do not make promises like "You can make $5,000 a night! You will make $40,000 in one week. You can make $2 million in a year!" The school offers to transfer the knowledge of trading to you through training and teaching. The rest is up to you - PRACTISE PRACTISE PRACTISE! So beware of pundits showing you and revealing to you the Royal Road to Quick Success. Learners beware!
8 November 2005: STI up 15 points. Euro$ down 100 points. The fire in France is getting bigger and worrier. Meanwhile, our PM said the economy is doing very well. So what will the stock analyst write tomorrow, what will be their forecast the STI and what will they call and recommend? Bullish! STI will challenge 3000 this year; for next year STI may challenge 3500! In China, the govt said economy 'cooling' is over. BTW cooling means 9% growth. Hot will be X%. If you can recall, in 2004 no analyst believe the STI (which is the economy) will rise. All were having doomsday feeling in their stomach. Today, many investors are still afraid to pull the trigger because of the Birdflu.
Come December, we will be having our General Election. Needless to say, the PAP will win. PM LHL has done well. We must give him due recognition. His performance is above expectation. Some people will always remain critical (rather jealous) of the long running (they prefer to use the word 'long RULING') PAP party. But objectively, the overall economy is doing well. Maybe we can say Singapore is 'lucky' - no disaster, no attack, etc. Mind you, Lady Luck favors those who work hard.
7 Nov 2005: Cool man! Last week the STI rallied 90 points. Today, it cools down a bit. That is a healthy sign. Trend do not travel in a straight line. A healthy trend gyrates, it runs, then cools down. The cooling down process is due to profit-taking which will allow some smart-money to fish for good buys. Technically speaking, the STI bounced 90 points after testing the 200MA. That 90 points jump means the undercurrent is strong. You can feel strength and good interest to buy on cheap. Bear in mind, the technical condition is still oversold and the long term trend remains bullish and intact. By now, you and I should know that the Election is about due. In fact, someone said they have given hints. So watch out for the Election Engineered Bull Run plus the Christmas/Year-End Bulls.
Dont worry too much about Bird-flu. The world will go on. As I said earlier, as long as the world is not in a world war, bird-flu is manageable. What can possible derail the bullishness is the human factor and unemployment cause by technology and outsourcing. Tkae a look at France - the unemployed is speaking and they are setting France on fire. Mind you, this fire of discontent is more deadly than Bird-flu. It can burn Europe if the politicians are not careful. I have warned before that as jobs were lost and as corporations lost their social responsibility and treat labor as a commodity, then the world is entering into a dangerous phase of development. Hunger through unemployment plus a sense of insecurity can give opportunity to a revolution. It is happening in France. The danger here is - terrorists may pounce on the situation and turn Europe in a nightmare. France is in fire. Will Euro escape the fire or be burnt with it?
2 Nov 2005: Cheers, it is November. Cheers! In two days, the STI rallied from the low of 2190 to 2155 - 65 points. Not surprising - why? One, the market is oversold. Two, the long term 200ma supported it despite a brief fall below. The truth is the 200ma held and the Bulls will be encourage, and they will go for the traditional year-end Bull run. I think the market has found the bottom after the correction to 2190 low. So from here, it will be a retest of the 2400 high with prospect for 2800 to 3000! Enough time or not? If two days can yield 65 points, what will 31 December STI be?
Hey! It is still holi-days and why am I working? Happy Deepavali and Happy Hari Raya to all Indians, Malays, Chinese and Angmohs. EChartbook will not be reporting on Friday but expect the STI to be firmer. What stocks should you accumulate for the year-end Bull run? No food and chicken stocks, please. Know the next rotation to play.
31 October 2005: It's month end and the STI smarten up with a 24 points rally. Is this the beginning of the year-end run? I think the market fooled all the bulls by going below the 200MA. Last week's weakness was the "forced selling" after the 60+ points fall. Expect accumulation to slowly seep in afterall the market is now in an oversold condition. So it means, it is an ideal condition for 'picking cheap stocks' and go for the year-end Bull run.
Singapore is cited as a global example in the fight against Bird-flu. We are a small red dot yet we are setting examples, and the United Nations is showcasing Singapore to the world. So sad to know that Terrorism has reared its ugly head in India. I would have thought the Earthquake in Pakistan is a clear message for Peace to Reign on Earth. But not! Terrorism is not learning. Terrorism is brutal and heartless. Terrorism is the pastime of the Devil. Love is the message of God. Destruction seeks to destroy the message of Love. The world leaders must awaken and motivate the masses to weed and root out Terrorism. It has to be a conscious effort or else Terrorism will never fear to operate. Singaporeans must be on vigil 24 hours a day. Singaporeans must be united. For peace to stay, discipline and sacrifices are necessary. This was the price our forefathers paid. This will be the price we must pay to secure and continue that peace.
Do not waste your time on warrants. The playground is not level. It is lopsided. In the past two weeks, warrant traders were massacred. In warrant trading, the length of time is cery crucial and our warrants has little time. Its attractive leverage is the killer. Why? Warrants are usually launched at huge premium. And who is the winner? Dont play if you do not understand. Option is another. Do not dabble in anything that you do not understand or think you know. The first rule of trading should be "If you do not understand, stand aside." Do not be tempted by greed. Leverage is one obvious example of greed. In the law of gaming, the higher the leverage given to a player, the higher the probability of losing. No man win by leverage. Leverage is another form of borrowing. Warrent Buffett said, "Borrowing is like tying your hand to the steering wheel." A fatal crash is bound to happen. Know what you are doing. And do what you know best.
28 October 2005: "I" stands for Iran and it also stands for Irresponsibility. Today, I=Iran=Irresponsibility. If you break it up, it will read "I Ran". Yeah, better run. Irresponsible speech plus nuclear is worse than the A-Bomb.
Bird-flu issue is overblown or overflown. I think our Dengue kills more than Bird-flu. There is no chance for a pandemic as long as the world is not in a world war and everyone is cooperating. The Bird-flu Pandemic will never occur unless all nations are preoccupied with their own survival. I have a natural solution to protect/insulate yourself against Bird-flu and it costs only $7 dollars for the entire family!
STI falls below 2200 on a Friday. It has been two closings below the 200MA. So expect those contras to throw in their towels. This Octobear is not that ferocious but it did killed some contra-guerillas. But in every seller, there is a buyer too. The stock market is a game of accumulation and distribution. I reckon the accumulators are buying downward as the bearish sentiment is in their favor. So expect the STI to skid down till mid November before it is price+time right to bet on the traditional year-end Bull run. The school holiday begins next week; so bring your children for a holiday but beware of Tsunami, beware of Earthquake, beware of Hurricane, beware of Bird-flu, beware of Whooping Cough (I am one victim!), beware of Dengue, beware of Terrorist, beware of Nuclear and beware of Iranian-speech. So many beware....maybe it is wiser to stay at home and pamper yourself with the latest Slim 26" LCD TV or take a train ride to Penang.
26 Oct 2005: Our PM Lee is in China; he is working, and hard; he is making inroad into China. It will bode well for Singapore. I cant imagine a tiny RED-DOT Singapore with a peanut population of 4 million Sings is making a speech to the 1.2 Billion Chinks. It is an accolade for all Singaporeans. You really can walk tall in China. In the last 30 years, we tied our petticoat to US - so US prosper we prosper, US fall we stumble. But this time, we are double hedging - with US and with China, later on will be with India. China is becoming great - she is Nuclear, she is on Space and she will host the 2008 Olympic. Her growth rate is 9 and over; cooling means 8%, how about blowing? Like US, China will be a consumer (currently export) nation in the next few years. If only 5% Chinese were to holiday overseas, the potential tourist bucks is estm S$180 Billion.
Malaysia is coming up. Dont write her off! Malaysia will be the exemplar nation for the Muslim world. She is not the biggest but she is the best. Indonesia sets a poor example. Under a cool-calm-confident Badawi, you can expect Malaysia to be better with each passing year. With Middle East in turmoil and Syria in deep-shit, Muslim-democratic Malaysia has a chance to showcase her success to the Muslim world. Few months ago, I was in KL's Chinatown and I saw many ME tourists shopping there. Malaysia is coming; it is akan-datang! If Malaysia has the HILT Factor (Honesty, Integrity, Loyalty and Trust) she will be a nation to watch and a voice to listen to. If Badawi beats Corruption, Malaysia can be irresistible. The Petronas Twin Tower has already put Malaysia on the world map.
Singapore was and is still a great trading port. In 1819, Stamford Raffles had a vision of it and he bought the island over. Since then, we were a nation of great traders. We were the biggest rubber trading exchange in the world beside London even though we produce no rubber. Our forefathers were traders. Today, we are also an important center for oil trading. Then in less than 10 years, rubber trading disappear mysteriously. Maybe because LKY cleaned up the Singapore-Rubber River. Presently, we are still an important forex trading link in the world with many big trading banks here. Trading is Singapore's business, and it is big business. Aided by internet access, trading has become global. We can regain our trading heritage. Guess it is our culture. With internet trading, Singaporeans need not fear about unemployment. We can learn to trade for a living - in a educated and professional manner. The busines of trading has the lowest operating cost - less than $250 a month! You only need a broadband $60pm, a notebook (depreciated) $100pm, utility $60pm and miscellaneous $30pm. Rental? None. Why? You can trade from home, trade from any hotspots like MacD, KFC or Cafe. To succeed, we also need good teachers and good school.
Is it time for the Tech stocks to run? In Jan 2004, Prop Index was 440, in June 2005, it was 540, this October it hit a high of 755. In Jan 2004, Tech Index was at a high of 198; currently it is at a low of 120! The earlier was up 72%, the latter was down 60%. in Jun 2005, Sesdaq Index was 75, by October it was 91, a gain of 18%. If you were to exit Prop stocks, which sector will you risk your money?
25 October 2005: First, the Finance stocks ran. Second, the Shipping
stocks ran. Third, the Multi-industry stocks ran. Four months ago, the Property
stocks ran, and ran like hell. Good fortune, the Garmen help by easing the
rules. Guess who will run next? Certainly, not Construction stocks. If you need
to know the answer, send me an
24 October 2005: STI finding support at the 2200 level. By tomorrow, it is time out for the contras ie pay up time or else positions will be subjected to "forced selling". Octobear is not over yet so the market may continue to reel under cutloss pressure. On the other hand, there are strong buyers looking for "cheap sale from forced-sale". Trading market is always a switching from weak hands to strong hands. Technically, I will continue to see the current decline as an abc process. You should know what is the meaning of abc. It is the language of the trade. So if you do not know, it is time to get back to schooling or else trade in the dark. A remisier said, "There are a lot of Blind Swordsmen in the market." How true! Wonder whats their probability of success if they do not know Joseph Cycle, if they do not know abc, if they do not know pattern, and if they do not know time.
19 OCtober 2005:Octobear is in town. STI is finally near to 2200 support. Now it is clear - the market is doing an abc correction. it is the 'c' wave with a 66 points fall. This is what I mean by October is not nice to the Bulls. Bulls can get slaughtered in October. But smart money will arrive in November to soak up the 'cheap sale' and gun for the Annual Bull Run in December and January. Do you know that, among the 12 calendar months, January...... is the most BULLISH. December comes in second. Another statistic - Out of 35 yearly data, 14 were weak years and 21 were bullish years; this works out to a 2:3 ratio. That means out of 5 years, 3 years tend favor Bulls while 2 will be Bears. So should you experience two years of Bear Run, it is time to turn Bull.
Was the fall in the STI expected. YES! It was clearly written on the chart; and the season tells. The Bird-flu news and Refco big news add spice into it. The next question on our mind is - Is it time to buy? Is it cheap enough? The answer should be found in the next question - Is the market under forced sale? When will there be forced sale? Forced sale means weak Bulls selling out into the arm of the strong holder. Without this 'rotation' the market is not time to bounce. Technically, the long term trend supports at STI 2200. Expect forced selling below. Below 2200, old bulls will panic, enter into fear mode and eject.
14 October 2005: Have a good weekend. Spare prayer time for the unfortunate victims of disasters like SA Earthquake (estimate cost of 40,000 to 50,000 lives) and the survivors of the Asian Tsunami 2004. Singaporeans only suffered tiny cases of Dengue, Bird-flu (so far the most serious but not fatal), maybe one hotel collapse, one road cave-in ie Nicoll Highway and a little flood in Chinatown. Thats all. We must realise our good fortune - our good luck. But luck goes to those who are prepared and ready and high in morals. Save for the occasional kiasuism-in-all-things, we are afterall good citizens - disciplined but grumbling, law-abiding guided by fines and canes, physically fit but love bad food, workable but a complain-king and can take the pressure but need the government's support. We are ..... distinctly Singaporeans. And now Russians are trying to know us more! The Chinese came 20 years ago to understudy. The Indians came 10 years ago to understudy. The Malaysians have been copying all along. And the Americans will called us if they want to understand Asia. We are in the global spotlight and we can never be if not for one man - Lee Kuan Yew. Wonder how much is our Singaporean Citizen (SC) worth today? Sorry it is not for sale. Have a good weekend pondering how we can double our SC value.
13 October 2005: STI recovered to close unchange from yesterday. Seems like there is good buying support below. But bulls will not be fooled to jump yet. October is still a long way to go. On top of that, there is wind of FED raising rates, very likely. Traders will be mindful and cautious while keeping an eye on our Election. Personally, I never like October. October sounds like Octopus with many tentacles which sounds like obstacles. If you are superstitious, you never like to trade the tenth month which in chinese sounds like dead month. Ten in chinese is shi. And if you know history, many Bear markets were born in October. Bulls, you know what to do? Kill all the Bear Babies born in this month or you may have to face the real Yogi Bear. How? You say bullish and I write Bulls-hit. Other than that, we have to let October flu-away.
12 October 2005: Big fall of 34 points with STI closing at 2320. What is happening? Sunny one day and rainy today. Blame it on some falling blue chip stocks like DBS and SPH. Anyway, the STI is all within the 2200-2400 consolidation range. Sideway traders are having a field time trading on buy-low-sell-high tactic. Some breakout traders were killed buying the 2325 resistance. The majority are sitting on the sideline waiting for the STi to break above the 2400 and waiting for notorious October month to flu-away.
Listen - heard a friend had one sure-proof method of fighting Aedes Mosquitoes. Drink a can of F&N's Tonics daily. Why? Because thats the only canned drink containing quinine. He claimed, "Zero mosquito bite! So no fear of Dengue." True or not I dunno but certainly a canned of soft drink is 95 % sugar and the sugar may kill you first before the Aedes do you in. F&N's coffer will rise and they will have the best laugh. How about another idea then - breed Mosquito-eating Birds! But what about Bird-flu?
11 October 2005: STI up 12 points to close at 2355. It is inching healthily towards the 2400 upper resistance. But I think the market has the desire to break it. Why? Election is roughly very very confirmed in December. You know the trading rule - Buy before Election, Sell day-or-two before Election Day. Second, the way the SAIL took off, resembled and reminds me of the day WATERSIDE took off on soft launch. There is certainly purchasing power in the economy, and it is mostly overseas and the local rich. I heard investors bought entire floor. I heard 20 Hongkies flew down to Singapore just to ink on the paper and flew home immediately. The SAIL will sail and propel Singapore towards my Joseph Cycle's objective of 4,300 or who knows beyond the horizon! Based on the theory of repetition, I am sure 3 to 4 years down the road, provided Bird-flu is muted, we will be seeing a Bubble bigger than Hurricane Katrina. The stage is set; the laymen/retail are not in yet; Greed has not yet manifest as Fear is still on Earth. But you know human beings - they will repeat the Boom2Bust Cycle ie the 7-Good Years followed by 7-Bad Years propagated by Joseph (Yusuf), son of Jacob (Yaccob) in Genesis 27:41. Those who know the Principle of Joseph will be survive; those who do not will have to fight the devil of Greed within themselves.
One theory said that people are preparing to spend and enjoy as much as they can. The reason? "The present cycle of events like Tsunami, Katrina and SA Eartquake remind them of the prophesied Doomsday scenario. So better enjoy while you can." But one gentle reminder - DONT GO INTO DEBT! Spend within your means. Gamble within your pocket. Speculate what you can. Of course, the wisest thing to do is - Believe that the world will survive.
Technically, above 2,400 (just a mere 45 points away) means the STI will head for the expected-by-all objectives of 2800 to 3000. What else can you and I do except to cheer it forward, and ride the Joseph Cycle. I think it is time for me to give a public seminar on The Joseph Cycle - The Race for 4300!
Bird-flu of 1918 went unnoticed and became pandemic because the entire world was caught in a World War. Bird-flu of 2005/6 is being watched by the entire world and the whole world is on alert and ready to counter it. The scenario in 1918 was the perfect stage for the Birds to kill 40 million people. This time, the world will kill the Birds first before it can kill humans. Where are the Birds? An angry trader screamed, "Where are the dammed Birds? F*#@!????" The boy answered, "Flu away."
10 October 2005: A minute of silent prayer for the 30,000 people killed in the massive RS 7.7 SA Earthquake! Mother Nature is angry; she unleashed Tsunami 2005; she unleashed Katrina 2005; she unleashed Earthquake last Saturday. Will we ever learn what Mother Nature is trying to teach us? She has yet to unleash her final lesson - Bird Flu. "Oh Mother! Your children are smart but blind; your children are strong but without the will; your children are generous....... but divided in colors; your children are god-loving but hate one another. Oh Mother, forgive us!"
Did the Aedes attacked the stock market? Rather, the South Asia Earthquake rocked our market; bulls felt the tremors while bears panic. The result is - the STI breached the 2325 resistance putting the short term trend to a "Bull mode". That means short-termers cannot SHORT the market; they must follow the trend and long with it. The short term's playground will be 2325 to 2400. Dont forget to 'Be Bears' the moment STI falls below 2325/2320.
Aiyoyoh....Tsunami, our market went up; Katrina our market kept on sailing; Terrorist Attack our market went up; Earthquake our market went up; Aedes our market no impact. What about Bird-flu? Up or down? The typical Singaporean answer, "Why think! Let the Garmen worry! We lorry behind them. Meantime, Bull the Election and support the Garmen's people. To the Garmen, PAP is People's Action Party; to us, PAP means Peace And Prosperity." Thats what we like to think. But in truth, we are always "Prepared and Ready!" because we are trained and we are disciplined.
Similarly, in trading we must be TRAINED and we must be DISCIPLINED. But that is still not enough - practise is required! Success is not cheap. Success comes with a price. Every martial expert practises his art, rain or shine, in peace or chaos. How does a trader practise when he is already in trading?
07 October 2005: Choppy and gyrating condition below 2325 STI. Beware - a closing above 2325 could be the move for 2400; then a move above 2400 calls for a run to try 2800-3000 target! Know the season! December and January favor the Bulls. August, September, October and November favor the bears. Also, the bear move seems to kickoff from NDP; so "We have a march down Orchard Road" the old stockman said. Follow the playground - 2200-2400-2800-3000, and trade accordingly. What is the meaning of Metro, Isetan and CK Tang rising? Idiots, the economy is healthy and rising! People's pocket are healthy; they are consuming. "Hey Buddy, the Joseph Cycle is in a Bull Run!" said Gen. Joseph.
But the scientists (read today's ST newspaper) are saying the Influenza of 1918...... is the equivalent of today's Bird Flu of today. I-Flu killed 50 million people while they are forecasting the B-Flu's potential to be 150 million. They are saying the Influenza Flu is cause by Birds too. Dunno whether you and me will be alive should it erupt. Maybe we should kill all the Birds first, before they kill us all. But there could be a cheap and effective method to protect yourself against B-Flu. Salt! I use saline water to rinse my nose. In our nose are millions of celia hairs whose primary purpose is to move (in waving motion) foreign matters or virus out of the body. It is our FIRST SECURITY GUARD. If the celia hairs are polluted n corrupted, then our first defense is down. You body is now open for attack. Some people steam their nose by having steamy hot-bath or steam-sauna. It does help. But saline is the cheapest. It costs less than one cent to start a saline wash. Maybe I should give a talk on how to rinse your faulty n dirty nose!
I am down with C-Flu (common Flu) since ytd and have been washing down with saline. Salt was a very precious commodity in the past. Wars were fought because of salt. India got its independence from the British as a result of the Salt March.
I really cannot imagine what will happen to the stock market should the B-Flu erupt. Neither can we stay out of the market unless it is proven positive. But there are certainly some stocks that we can eye - medicine and pharmacy. Forget about salt stocks and chicken stocks. Have a good weekend and dont worry too much about B-Flu. Watch the mosquitoes first, the A-killers (Aedes).
6 October 2005: Time is not ripe and not right! STI down 36 points. The art of trading requires an understanding of time. Time is important. Timing is equally important. What is time and what is timing? There is a difference between the two. The earlier refers to season while the latter refers to entry and exit. One is macro, the other is micro. To quote from the book "The Joseph Cycle - Will The STI Riset o 4300?":
"Know time and you will be master of events. Know yourself and you will be master of Man. Know time and yourself, you will be master of Wealth." Of course, management gurus or your bosses will tell you, "Time is money" while the Indian Yogi will said, "There is no time." Time is a critical factor in trading efficiency and effectiveness. Too early is costly, too late is doubly costly. Time is one of the seven factors in the wheel of success.
So expect STI to come under pressure. Once again, the consolidation playground is between 2200 to 2400. It is wide enough for the day traders to make a living. In day trading, there no fundamental; day trading is more about psychological and technical behaviors.
5 Oct 2005: STI up 2.5 points closing at 2326. The consolidation trading range from August to October is 2200 to 2400. Above 2400, the potential is a rise to 2800 to 3000. The market is expecting a move at year end. And at year end our market have to cheer for Election (most likely December). So what to do between now and end of October? Drink kopi and go for tehtarik but keep an eye for bargain. Come November, the Bulls will line up waiting to run the Year End 3000 Rally.
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4 October 2005: STI up 23 points. Why? In defiance of terrorism. The market is saying to the terrorists, "Every attempt to bring us down, we will raise the stock market up." Well this could be just emotional and temporary. I heard an analyst from UBS is calling for the STI to rise to 2780 by year end. That could also be the reason for today's surprising surge. Months ago, many house-analysts were calling for STI 3000 by year end. The Joseph Cycle has been calling for 3000 by year end earlier. But is the market ready to run now? I dont think so. October month is still shaky. Maybe November could be the better timing......
Technically speaking, the STI consolidation range is 2200 to 2400. So unless we break above 2400, then there is reason to cheer and speculate for 3000.
3 October 2005: Terrorists ought to know that they can never kill all the innocent people with such callous and cowardly act of "Bombings". Even the Evil Hitler lost the war. Evil must know that Good will always exist; Evil can never rid Good for God which is Good will never allow that to happen. The world will always survive. Influenza in 1918 killed 40 million people alone. Still the world keeps on ..... going and growing. Evil cannot resist the trend. It is tantamount to throwing a stone at the wall. Will the wall collapse? No way. Evil attempts to blame Good for the ways of the world. In fact, Evil should look within, then consider becoming Good instead, and merge with the world peacefully.
Bali is unlucky. The innocent Balinese were unfortunate to be caught in between. It was not their fault yet they have to suffer. The world must not forsake Bali and give up on Bali. If they do so, more Balinese will suffer and it may sound like a victory to Evil. The moderates must rise to the occassion; they must raise their voices, they must exert their influence, they must speak up, they must say "NO" to the Evil that misrepresents them. There is a choice to make, and they have to make the right choice.
We pray for the Balinese people. We pray that those who died in the Evil's scheme may find solace and peace in Heaven.
It is wrong to kill.
It is wrong to take life.
If ...if... if Evil can put an end to Dengue and Bird-flu, it will be a blessing to all.
28 Sep 2005: Crude Oil prices are locked in a trading range of $63-68; above $68 will send cold shivers to the stock market, below $63 will ring cheers and jubilation. One hurricane breeds a second and old folks know this - "Bad things come in threes!" Thus one more hurricane to hit America's Belly, the stock markets will buckle and bulls will kneel down. Over time, the heightened Oil prices can be psychologically damaging to the market. President Bush's call to Americans to "car pool" and "use less oil" could send discomfort to stock investors. In Asia here and at this time of the season, we are saddled with ........ Haze, Dengue, Typhoon and worse of all, the Bird Flu which is said to possess the potential to kill tens of millions of people. If you read the news, you may decide it is safer to put your hard-earned cash in the bank and be happy to earn Marxian's interest rates! The real bad factor in today's climate is not Hurricane, it is the Bird Flu. Birds are hard to contain. It is a global pandemic the mad scientists are forecasting it to occur. And we all believe in their forecast! (I am guilty of it too but it is better to be safe than sorry!) Can the Indonesians rise to the occasion in the event of a Bird Flu Crisis? Or they sink into mental-paralysis and let the Bird Flu rise to the occasion? These are difficult questions to answer.
But The Joseph Cycle says the cycle must march till 2008, and in between there will be major hiccups. In the months of Sep and Oct, bad news are plenty and may come in busloads. Weaklings are likely to be consumed and fill themselves with fear and many will fall off the IP (Investment Peak), while the cash-rich will be happy to mop up heavily-discounted stocks. Investing is a cycle - the weak-holder will sell into the hands of the strong-holder, and the greedy ones will buy from the smart-money at indecent premiums. To avoid falling into the IR (Investment Ravine), one should read into human psychology and understand mass behavior.
The first rule of trading says, "Never break the rules." The second rule of trading says, "Follow the first rule." Then the third rule of trading says, "Trade a handful of stocks only." How many rules did you break now?
Read What Katrina Can Teach Us? "This is an inspiring and awakening sermon by Pastor Max Lucado on humanity and heaven as seen through the eyes of Katrina.” S. Westgate
27 Sep 2005: Do not chase the highs. The safe way to trade is to buy on weakness. An old pro says, "Buy when people are selling or when nobody wants to buy." Viceversa, "Sell when everybody is rushing in to buy." This is the contrarian view. But from the wave point of view, it means buy in wave c and sell into wave 5. Or from the technical trendline, sell when the price penetrate the uptrendline from the top or buy when the price penetrate through the downtrendline from below. From the fundamental point of view, just hold onto good stocks. And if you are a Buffettian, ....... buy on value and sell on over-value. If you are a technical guy using technical indicators, it will be sell overbought signal or buy oversold signal. To sum it up, there are many methods in trading stocks. What are you? Remember, what works for others does not necessary mean it will work for you. So you have to find your level of competence and expertise. You have to know what suits you best and well and then take the risk.
In a Bull run, we buy high and sell higher. In a consolidation phase, we buy low and sell high. So we have to know whether the STI is in a run or in a consolidation. Time says it should be consolidating till October. But SESFOR says it should be in for a run. Who should I believe? Tell me.
26 Sep 2005: Beware! Foreigners are in town! How? The chart says so. Why? Coming for election-profiteering! When? From now till the school holiday and before the expected Election. Which stocks to go? Ah....we cannot be so public. But the information in EChartbook can tell.
Technically speaking, we should forget about the decline or correction to 2250-2200. With the "foreign-money" in town, it will be foolish to wait and dont act. The Singapore market is too small for foreign-bucks and too big for local-money. So if the "Indons are in" you better beware. I suspect they are here already. They could have jump the gun...... and beat every Singaporean to the Election-eering! You know them. They are great opportunists. They have a great sense of timing too. Watch out for "sleeper" stocks - ie good stocks but been overlook and forgotten. Of course, big blues are safe like bank. Tech stocks, Dengue stock (do you know who has been killing Dengue lately?) and medicine stocks are the best. Forget about water stocks for the moment - too much rain lately. Wise to keep out of chicken stocks for the moment unless you think chicken is not a bird.
A lot of stocks have been flu-ing around lately. Even K1 is now a darling. But there is one stock that looks like HPL's Bull Flag formation in the past, at $1.00 sometime in Sep 2004. It was so written off but today, HPL is smartly trading at $1.50 after a high of 1.60$. A chart pattern is a behavioral pattern telling the analyst the sum of the market's desire, future direction and the potential-2-profit. Some critic says it is tea-leaves reading. Most economists tell you technical analysis is "rubbish"; yet many of them rely on it without your knowing. But to a technical trader, a good chart is 90% to victory. To a General in the midst of war, a chart is a map; without it defeat is certain.
In 2003, all the economists were competing on the only theme "Who can predict how much the economy will shrink?" In 2003, for a economist to say "The economy was bullish!" was taboo and it tantamounts to committing "occupational suicide". But in 2003, a Technical Analyst applied Cycle in Forecasting, published his result in a book titled "The Joseph Cycle - Will the STI rise to 4300?", and declared to the world and all Singaporeans that "THE ECONOMY IS GOING UP!" and "Buddy, the Cycle is in a Bull Run!" All the economists fell off their chairs (one or two may have died of a laughter-induced-heart-attack) on hearing that. They had a jolly good laugh. The joke was "The economy is bullish unless Joseph is alive!" At the rate the economy is surging today, not only is Joseph alive, the economists are kicking and blowing their trumpets to the tune of the Old Testament.
The knowledge is in the Bible! The Bible speaks the Truth. And the Bible is the Word of God. And whatever God said shall be truth. Joseph revealed the secret of heaven. Simon Sim recycled what Joseph said and reinstate Joseph as the Father of Cycle.
Thank God. God saved America by making Rita third grade and making Rita land where no man live. God listened and answered the prayers of Americans especially Texans!
23 Sep 2005: God save America! Hurricane Rita, the world's third
biggest hurricane is set to punish land or to clean-up land? Some said it is
send by AQ to punish GBush. Beware, US $ can be choppy on Monday morning; you
never know what Rita can do to USA. Some economists said Katrina and Rita will
shave US growth by half a percentage point. But some said, the "massive
reconstruction" will inspire another growth. Like in trading, argument can
always be bullish or bearish depending on which side you prefer. But should not
the US $ weaken?
Latest! New Orleans Levees break! 
Courtesy of MSNBC.com
With Dengue on the march, Bird Flu-ing around, Oil prices slip-up, and Heaven cooking Grade-5 Hurricanes & Floods and Grade-10 Earthquakes, we might as well leave forecasting to Heaven. Markets will be on the lookout for such unpredictable natural events. In Singapore, the time and season still favor a consolidation range between STI 2250 to 2200. The long term moving averages support at STI 2200. Expect long term buyers to appear but be mindful of birds-fluing across Asia from its base in Indonesia! Watch WHO said what from Jakarta.
Have a nice weekend folks. Tonight, I am looking forward to conduct my third mini-Forex Trading Course Preview at 7pm. We were ex-bankers teaching the art of forex trading. Who else can do it better?
22 September 2005: Watch the Katrina's sister Rita performing at Texas this Saturday. I dont think she will dent the spirit of America. But Oil prices may rise further and FED may have to raise rates. That is bad news for stocks. Back home, we are having Dengue at home and Bird Flu abroad in Indonesia. Will the Bird Flu be ...... the next pandemic for Asia? Australia is damm worried as the monsoon winds from China will head into Australia. Currently, the winds arrive in Singapore in a NE direction, then changes tact after the Equator, into a SE direction. That means migratory birds (hope they dont carry H5N1 virus) will land in Australia. If Indonesia and the WHo cannot stop the flu in Indonesia, it will be a disaster for Asia and the world. How come they did not call on Singapore to rescue? We did extremely well in the last Battle of Bird Flu 2003.
With so much negative news, and major ones, the direction for STI is definitely clear - south bound in alignmetn with the Time factor.
21 Sep 2005: US raised rates and $ weaken. That is the classic "Buy on rumor, sell on fact". The average traders were caught by surprise. But to the experienced traders, there was no surprise. It is a illogical market behavior in a logical environment. Therefore, they said, "Market has no logic." Many times, market is ........ more psychological than factual. Afterall, most traders are governed and consumed by fear, greed and ego. An expert trader is one who is knowledgeable in technical, fundamental and market psychology.
STI is still vulnerable on the downside. Bulls can only buy whatever is cheap or risk financial loss. Or they have to wait for the technical "oversold condition" before jumping in. As I said, the possible target could be 2200-2250. Technically speaking, the short term trend is bearish while the long term and medium term trends are bullish. So that means, buying on weakness. The market is buying time. Why? The time is not ripe. August, September and October tend to favor the bears than the bulls. If you want to be a Bull, wait!
20 September 2005: STI should be lower. Rates should be higher. Oil prices are higher - shot up $4 yesterday. The next storm is brewing in New Orleans - more oil destruction could be in place. One trend is very clear - oil prices are still potentially explosive and pump prices are heading higher. Now it takes a $100 to fill your tank! We are sandwiched between two explosive economies - India and China. Dont worry. Nanny will take care. We will be a matchmaker. So dont be bull yet. If you want to buy those that you think it is cheap! ....
It was said that the undersea earthquake on 26th Dec 2004 tilted the earth axis and that our planet went wobbly for a few seconds or minutes. It was rumored that the earth's shift can cause climactic changes and bring forth a wave of new diseases and viruses. Are we witnessing all those predictions now? We are having a Asia Dengue beginning in Australia to India. We may be seeing Katrina II after witnessing Katrina I. It is snowing in South America. Someone said snow will fall in Singapore. Maybe that is too much to swallow. Someone also said Singapore will sink. That is a mouthful to swallow too. They never said Singapore will be the lighthouse of the world. In fact, Stamford Raffles or his peers did said that. So be it and it is becoming true. That I am very sure.
With Dengue on the rise, what stock should we buy. With flooding on the rise, should we buy motorboat/sampan stock? My survival kit is "stock salt, sugar, water and prayer to God at all times" at home. They dont cost a lot, occupy so little space and zero decay and but it can feed you and keep you alive in times of crisis.
19 September 2005: Oh yeah...the STI is heading lower as we said on Friday. Why? Technical and psyhcological fear. Technically, it is not time to start the Bull run yet. Psychologically, who is not afraid of the FED raising interest rates. Interest rates is the greatest enemy of stocks. So are Bulls to the Bears. In fact, they are eternal enemies; since the day stock market was born. Time-wise, we know the Bull is program for November and December run which will coincide with Singapore's Election. You know and I know, prior to..... Election, the stock market will look good. In transparent Singapore context, it is a fundmaental fact that the economy is sizzling hot unlike those "western cooking" economy. The question on every Bull's mind is: Where is the Bear's Bottom? The answer: between the last leg (low) and psychological 2200.
On the currency front, Germany's woes is Euro's loss. An uncertain Germany or a Germany with the old and ineffective man-Chancellor is a stumbling block for progress. Seems Germany will enter into a gridlock like Japan did in the past. If Deutsemark is tradable (it was no longer. The Swiss and Brits are smart not to join the Euro - on hindsight), it will be SELL SELL SELL. With Angela, there could be hope. Now there is uncertainty. Euro currency has to pay her price and US$ stands to gain. So far, Germany has been France best friend, and France is smiling as long as Gerhart is still "alive". I made a gross analystical error in forex - I failed to incorporate the German election and failed to check my black-box. A chance to short the Euro was lost. To win, we must analyse and plan ahead. To become rich, we must do our hardwork and homework. The common saying, "No sweat, no gain" is very right.
Simon Sim Advisory and Research Pte Ltd and EChartbook.com run training courses on trading and software. Our lecturers are qualified and has at least 15 years of banking experience, trading and exposure. As ex-bankers, we understand the importance of quality. As bankers, our reputation is the most valuable asset. As bankers we treasure the values of Honesty, Integrity, Loyalty and Trust - the HILT values.
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16 Sep2005: It is Friday and weekend. STI closed lower with a big red bar down. Thats not a good sign. So should see lower trading ranges next week. My Joseph Cycle Time Analysis says the STI is time to start ..... the next Bull Run in November 2005. So you know what to do - LONG KOPI, PAK KIU or PHUA 4D. Brokers will PARH BUNK and company CHIA LO TI. Ah Peks and Ah Sims go CHAY PEH KEE. Employees will work harder and POH 4 HUAY ANG.
Beware...playing too much GOLF in the equator-country like Singapore means you are at "high risk of skin cancer". Beware....attending courses on trading and learning TA can increase your chance of winning from 20% to 80%. BUT beware of one or two days courses promising winnings and success. Those are bull's shit. If one/two days can make an outsider a success, then all horses will be winners. Then the bank does not need to spend two years and two million Singapore $ to train a fresh gradudate from the University of Singapore! Seminars make the speakers rich and the participants made poorer. Know the difference between a seminar and a course. Go ask your teacher. To be crude - most seminars are talk-cock-sing-song while course is drill-in-drain-out. Before you ever sign up, always check the background of the trainers/lecturers. Dont learn from donkeys. Life is like that, there are always donkeys dressed as racehorses. You know one thing - donkeys are never shy to show their dick while racehorses are too shy to get horny.
Weak beings have a bio-weakness - they are gullible and they want to buy a short cut to wealthy. So if you want to be rich, exploit this weakness of man.
15 Sep 2005: Be Aware, Be Alert Be Asmart! Real or not I do not know. Judge for yourself - How theives can steal your ATM # at the ATM machine.
Today was graduation night for the first batch of Forex Traders in the course "Be an Expert in mini Forex Trading". Yesterday was the end of the second course. We will be conducting our third course in October. One of the student said, "What you learn here cannot be learn in the textbook and elsewhere. Nowhere else can you get four qualified lecturers to teach and guide for 36 hours! They did a good job. This course is value for money. I am glad I signed up."
Notice we added Forex and KLSE in our subscription modules. Why? Watch out for Malaysia! This country is blessed with natural resources, so blessed rich that if they have good leaders like for example PM Badawi, the country will excel. It will only mean the KLCI stocks will also run. So subscribe to EChartbook's KLSE module and gain access to the 1000+ stocks in Malaysia. Put some money into Malaysia. Once again, mark my word, "watch Malaysia." True or not I do not know but it can certainly be verified and if u can confirm it, do let me know - I understand from sources that PM Badawi has asked all its Ministers to ....... don white attire as a sign of "purity and clean". You know he is driving at a clean image and corrupt-free. It reminds me of who? You know I am referring to who in Singapore. Today Singapore is the world's darling. Malaysia is copying Singapore's every move but smart enough not to infringe or pay copyright. FYI Malaysia will one day be an icon and model for the world's Muslim developing nations. Indonesia is the biggest Muslim nation in the world with a population of 250 million (could be third now with possibly 300 Million, after China and India). But Indonesia has nothing to show to the world except its corruption and internal social disunity. They will need another 3 generations to rise above. Look at Phillippine! It is perpetually mired in corruption and leadership problem. How can they ever rise above.
Young Japanese are giving Koizumi the mandate to make changes. Japan is a rising sun now. Nikkei will rise every morning. After 15 years of pain, the mid to younger Japanese decided it is enough - the old way must go and the older leaders must also go. Singapore? Ah ha, Singaporeans never have to worry. So pampered. Nanny Lee has taken care of it, decades ago by institutionalizing it and making it a habit too. He always fix things first before we can even think of it or before it arrive. Now we even have a Code of Conduct for Ministers! Soon, the world will follow Singapore's Way. In Survival Rules and Habits book, you can find many codes (rules) to guide behaviour and conduct in private and in public. The Joseph Cycle book is the way to wealth - the wealth rules. Survival Rules and Habits book is the way to behave - the moral rules.
Sponsors needed! Buy one Survival Rules and Habits book and the author will donate one book in your name to any Home, Halfway House or School of your choice. As schools have limited funding to buy books, I suggest old boys and girls to think of returning "something" to their alma-mater. You can do it by donating books. The wiseman says, "We came to earth empty and naked; we have to return empty as ash, no cash and card; mother nature fed us and we grow; so before our time expired, it is good to be able to do something as gratitude and/or pay your debt. In this way, living will not be in vain."
14 Sep 2005: Two weeks ago I gave a 3-hour talk at NACLI on "Rules - Managing the Risk" which is based on second book Survival Rules and Habits. Today, I received positive feedback and thank you from the GM for delivering such an awesome, wonderful and inspiring talk; none fell asleep, all participants were kept on their toes. My beginning and only fear was..... - I am not a management guru or a consultant; I am a TA and An Accidental Author (I never attend a course on how to write books). He was wondering how I managed to win the audience on such a difficult topic. Mind you, the audience are reputable names. The answer - I did my homework by going through my book over and over; on top of that, I was in top form that day.
Trading is the same - if you do your homework, trading is no longer difficult. If you know what you are in for, then life's ups and downs are no longer surprises and shocking. If you are prepared with a plan and strategy, how can you lose. If you are focus and clear, how can there be errors arising from impulsive actions. The way to victory is to know time, ground and enemy.
13 Sep 2005: China has 1.2 Billion Chineses. India as 1.1 Billion Indians. Japan has 170 Million Jippons. And this three economies are the triple engines firing Asia's economic growth. Indonesia is a dark horse with 250 Million people or the 4th most populous nation in the world and the largest Muslim nation. Asia has 3/4 of the global population; a never satisfied consumers. Before WWII destroyed Shanghai, Shanghai Bourse was..... the world's biggest stock market. Wall Street was peanut then. Hmmm....Shanghai will one day be bigger than New York. It is the dream of Shanghainese and Chinese. Singapore with a drop of 4 million people is real peanut. But our small size is our biggest asset. Singapore can duck and turn anytime without the people complaining; grumbling yes but revolution no. Singaporeans is the asset; they are highly educated, hardworking and smart.
Oil factor seems to be stale news these days. Fear of higher interest rates is taking the centre stage. But lately, natural disasters seem aplenty. Some people said, "Certain people has offended God and God is meting out the punishment." Others said, "Mother Nature is rebelling against abuse of Nature." The wise Presidong Bush said, "Nobody expects Katrina to break the levees. I was on leave and Ka-Trina struck. Last time, I was on leave and Al-Qaeda struck. I am always lucky." The market said, "In August, September and October Bears may strike. In December and January, Bulls will streak and strike."
12 September 2005: Peace went through 911 but another maid episode hogs the headline over the weekend. These foreign maids are giving Singapore a BAD NAME. In my book Survival Rules and Habits, I said, "Maids are not fit to look after our children. They are fit for housework but not taking over the parenting role of our mothers and grandmothers. Grandmothers are the best person to groom the kids but few really thank and appreciate their mothers until ...something terrible happens."
Inspired by a SHS bottom, the STI rose. But it is not into a bull run yet. It will go higher another 50 points but it will have to abide by TIME. We have to cross the terrible September and October obstacle. Also we remind ourself that 911 is not over yet. AQ is still planning....... something and the fact u and I know is "After hitting USA, Australia, Spain and UK, who will be next on AQ's hit list? Japan and Singapore Of course, Singapore is an "impenetratable fortress" and a bless place. I am incline to say the STI will consolidate within the range of u know 2250 to 2400, in good health for The Joseph Cycle's intermediate objective of 3000! These days, everybody is calling 3000 their own objective. Next year, everybody will be calling 4300 their own objective too. None is willing to say that the higher objective is Joseph Cycle. None will speak up for the Joseph Cycle. None will say that The Joseph Cycle is right. This is the way of man and the way of the material world. In 2004, some "analysts, academics and lecturers" were calling me liars and saying The Joseph Cycle is all bullshit. Let me tell you one thing, it was in the 7th month of my writing and after researching into Genesis, that I decided to rename my book "The Joseph Cycle". I listen to my inner voice and took the courage to rename it Joseph Cycle and the risk of being mocked at. The book carries the divine symbol number SEVEN.
At the rate and strength of our STI and our economy, who knows 4300 may pale into the shadows in the year 2008! Two years ago, everyone felt 4300 was an IMPOSSIBLE TASK. Today, the market is dead sure 3000 will be hit and thinks 4300 can be reached. 9th September 2005:
BEST NEWS!Survival Rules and Habits - A Legacy For My Children will be printed in Vietnamese and read by millions of Vietnamese children and adults. A prominent Viet publisher spotted my book at Kinokuniya Bookstore and immediately realized the value and potential of the book for Vietnamese children. I am confident this book will be translated into many languages. The book itself is a mystery - Gods and Goddesses were showering blessings nearing the end of my writing! It is true! Some of my friends were witness. Excuse me, it is not my ploy to have you buying my book. In truth, I sold less than 500 books in Singapore but soon, there will be 100,000 Vietnamese children reading it. There is a saying, "Recognition comes from afar!" Same here, foreigners from all over the world come to Singapore to meet Lee Kuan Yew. But we take him for granted and at times dislike him for his "cannot do this cannot do that" mantra. 2005
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Two more days to 911 Anniversary. Pray we do not fall into spies and betrayals. Pray our nation will be safe from disasters, man-made and natur-made. So far so good. God has bless us with peace and good leadership. We can show the world how to live together and live in Peace And Prosperity. Take care of your health - flu and dengue are common these days. People are falling sick suddenly. How to survive? Read my second book - avoid crowded places, safest place is home. Drink plenty of water but WITH SALT. Sleep well and for the moment AVOID ...... rigorous exercises. Swimming is the best bet for your cartilage and muscles. Swimming exercises 95% of your body while running only 60%. Swimming lubricates your joints while running WEAR OFF your cartilage. Exercise smart! Pray the world has a peaceful 911. Pray the mad terrorists wake up and stop doing inflicting pains and sufferings on the innocent children and adults. Killing for God is a NONSENSE! There is no such thing as God Loves Killing. It is the Devil that propagates DEATH. God Gives. If you want a simple method on how to defence your body against all kind of virus and bacteria, send me an email. The simplest method is the best method.
Pray lah.....that the world will safely pass 911 by. After that, then we talk about stock market and all the bull's shit and dog's shit, and argue until the cow comes home or the rooster crows at midnight.
Do you know that Singapore fell to the Japanese because of spies and betrayal.
Do you know that the French in Indochina provided the Japanese with naval bases in southern IndoChina which is 750 miles from Singapore and 300 miles from airfields in northern Malaya. If the French did not do that, Malaya and Singapore will not fall into the hands of the Japanese, so EASILY. It became a springboard for the Japanese Invasion and the beginning of untold misery and sufferings for millions of Malaysians and Singaporeans, including my grandmother, grandfather and parents! And Lim Bo Seng who did not make it - because he was betrayed! Does the French knows the difference between right and wrong? 60 years later, in Iraq, the French and Germans opted out of confrontation, leaving the GI, Brits and the REST OF THE WORLD to fight and dig their own graves! Lets soak French loaf into muthu 'chicken' curries.
Do you know that the Japanese Commanders had detailed maps of Malaya telling them what main roads to travel on and where were the British troops, even before they landed in Malaya? Who provided them such detailed and accurate information? The fall of Singapore was thus inevitable and it truly fell in a matter of days! 14 days to be exact. Yet Singapore was supposed to be the FORTRESS OF THE EAST! See MAP on Fall of Singapore
I am horrified to know of the above after reading the warsite at http://www.britain-at-war.org.uk/Malaya_and_Singapore/html/british_prepare.htm#BritishPrepare
No nation can survive if there are internal spies, betrayals and third-party enemies. My father fought the Jap Army and was hunted by the Kempetai. He nearly lost his life. I do not wish to experience my father's time and I certainly do not wish to see the second fall of Singapore in my life-time and future-time. Like what I said at page 306 of my second book Survival Rules and Habits - A Legacy For My Children, "Be prepared is the only answer to keep strangers at arm length."
8 September 2005: "Chia chau" literally means eat grass in local slang. When stock market enters into August, September and October, the players suffer this syndrome. It is the off season period and the many bulls have gone into hibernation mode. You are lucky not to see too many bears around. ...... In such lull, any fundamental news can change the direction of the market from sideway to trending. For sure, the longer term investors are waiting for good buys. The Joseph Cycle is still intact. We are only into the 4th year of the 7 years Bull Run. And the STI index is only half way to the 4300 objective. Fundamentally, our economy is strong. Fundamentally, ASEAN will one day be strong again; at present they are bickering and full of jealousy and accusations though I am seeing some sign of understanding and cooperation. I think the three Bs - BGLee, Badawi and Bambang can click together. Together with Thailand, the four countries can be a signicant player. Such positive thinking will come in good and handy at year end - November and December. The local weather is killing - hot and humid. We feel tired easily. So take a good rest.
7 September 2005: KLSE index rose. STI was higher. But the season is not right nor ripe. What is cooking in the forex market? Beware of AUs$! A rise above 7700 calls for a rally to 8000, and a rise above 8000 calls for a finale rally to 8400-8500. Folks this is a 700 to 800 points potential strengthening in the AUS$. This could be the finale weakness ....... in the US$. You know how much Katrina has inflicted on the US Govt - US$100 Billion Bombshell. You know how much it will cost the US Govt to feed/house/dress the 1.2 Million Orleanis for at least 6 to 9 months? Assume it costs $50 a day per head multiply by 1.2 Million multiply by 180 days = $$$$$$$??? US$10.8 Billion. Not peanuts! Thanks to Katrina. You know how much it is costing the US Govt to keep peace in Iraq (for the sake of the world! Please give thanks to them)? A BOMB! Add together plus the OIL factor, the sum could be an ATOMIC NUMBER! Maybe...maybe...mabye...the mathematical numbers will do the US$ in. So dollar raiders and dollar predators will be happy to hear and will be happy to pounce and happy to capitalize on this opportunity. Well... this is the way I c and it could be wrong or cud be damm right. Anybody can paint a "sweet" picture but how to trade and survive is another completely different issue. The art of trading have to be taught and learned. Weapons are plenty, costly and can be purchased but to master it, one needs to be taught on how to use and practise till perfect. China has huge army yet they need to conduct war games to simulate the capture of Taiwan. The key work in success is TRAINING.
6 September 2005: Beware...dont fly small planes unless your life is cheap! If you wish too, please buy a $10 Million death only insurance. That will make your generation rich. So what, Oil prices are lower. The season is not right. Timing is important. Higher Oil prices did not cause stocks to fall, so why should lower oil prices cause stocks to rise. But it will if Oil prices falls below $50. That will be incentive for funds ......to pour money into stocks. What to do in the meantime? Drink kopi and eat kaya-roti, have long long lunches. If not, learn how to trade FOREX like an expert! Interested, send us an email or call me at 97978988 for a discussion. We will be running our THIRD FX 36-hours Certificate Course in October; if u wish to attend a preview scheduled in late September, please email us. We have 4 lecturers and we are FX professionals from the banking industry. 05 September 2005: The saying goes, "One plane crash, two more will follow." It did. One Tsunami came, two more waiting to happen! Well, we saw the second one in USA - 1+ million people stranded and displaced with the situation turning into anarchic. The world will have to wait for the third big one! Where and when? God knows. Dont worry, it wont happen in Singapore. We are a bless country. Even if should occur in Singapore, I dont think Singaporeans will sink in anarchic-like behavior. Our national service duty has ingrained in us leadership, cooperative and comradeship qualities. We were disciplined ...... soldiers and every man knows what to do and the right thing to do - stay calm, do the best each can at onsite-situation and wait for the central command and control to take over. Singaporeans are different breed of people - trained and disciplined. We dont whine and we dont grumble during chaotic times though we may be kiasu during peaceful times. Anyway, our heart goes to Americans affected by the traumatic life-shattering disaster. But who knows, this could be retribution for the American Blacks. Millions of Africans were dying in Africa, what did they do for them? I never hear of African-Americano coming out to help Africans in Africa? We can see Whites going to Africa to help but hardly any Blacks. God help those who helps their own and others.
STI is in a state of consolidation. There is equal chance for a downside move as time is still not in the Bulls' favor yet. September and October are not good for bulls. How to survive? Adopt a hit and run trading tactics. Long term, the STi will rise. Most people can feel the economy is getting stronger. I can feel businesses are growing and I get a feeling that most busineses are even expanding. Rising Oil price is like a temporary shower. It cools but it will not derail The Joseph Cycle which is pointing to 4,300. These days, I am winning more converts - people are telling me The Joseph Cycle will come true. Ah char, as though I dunno.
02 September 2005: Greatest news and most satisfying, my second book Survival Rules and Habits - A Legacy For My Children will be translated into Vietnamese for the benefit of 75 million Vietnamese living in Vietnam. This is the beginning - I believe the book will be translated into multi-languages like Malay, Bahasa, Chinese, Japanese, Indian, Thai, etc. The book is a GEM to have - it is the book for today's chaotic world. But I must praise and give thanks to God.
Big move on currency front - the US$ weakens........ against the Euro, BGP, Aus etc. There is a potential that the USD may go into a finale fall. That will mean currencies rising against the USD. Fundamentally, the USD should weaken.
What will happen to the stock market when the dollar weakens and the Oil prices strengthen? Joseph's Time Cycle says the "right time" to buy stocks is in November. Seasonally, August, September and October months are not Bull friendly. Thus, the case calls for a period of consolidation between 2200-2400. Have a good weekend folks. And if you want to buy my book Survival Rules and Habits, please call me at 97978988.
I recommending every adult to return "something" to the school that taught them. Every educated person owes their school and obligation. I recommend them to buy some of my books and donate it to their alma-mater.
1 September 2005: Good start to September...seems to reassure us that the Bull Run for 3000 is still there. Anyway, it is there. PM Lee Hsien Loong has hinted that in his Nataional Day address. Singapore will be a sparkling jewel in Asia and a global city in the world. Ahhh...long term we may even see 10,000 STI. Today, Temasek is buying Bank of China and paying the Chinese S$3B+. How I wish they can spend those money mopping up all the ailing stocks in Singapore! Lets make that our Christmas Wish. Before, Chen of CAO wanted to buy our SPC. Now we are buying their BOC. Singapore is buying up the world! (This is how we will become a Global City) Temasek bought into India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipines and who else. They are securing Singapore's future but what about the 45+ Singaporean Man? Foreign IIT (Indian IT) are replacing Singaporeans by the busloads! Singaporeans above 45 are facing risk higher than AIDS! But dont worry, EChartbook will teach you how to ........trade FOREX FOR A LIVING!
I think the STI has already found its bottom - 2250. The question is what is the high for the consolidation month of September? Give it 2250-2350. You know, OIL is not history yet. Who knows it can shoot for 100. Also US may be forced to raise interest rates which will force every central banks to hike rates. Already, local banks are raising interest rates (against property loan borrowers) like hell! They tell me every 3 months Stanchart is raising rates by a quarter percentage. Pity those borrowers - they are being bleeded, harass from every corner. Hmmm....squeezed out by employers and squeeze by bank (loan)! Man....money is King in Singapore. No money eh-si. No job also-si. What to do? Look for lobang. Toh-luk (where)? Trading lah.
Yesterday, I wrote about the "To reign in the runaway horse either they have to weaken the CURRENCY or imposed higher taxes and rates. If it is currency, then there is a big trading potential on the US Dollar." Immediately, the $ weakens 250 points against the Euro and 150 points against the Aussie. In fact, there was a SHS Bottom on the Euro$ that quicken the move. Many traders were misled into buying US$; they were all butchered today. If you are adept, you could have set a entry stop at EUR 12230 and AUD 7500. Tonight the currencies are trading at EUR1.2470 and AUD7610.
31 August 2005: Month end today...and the market did fairly well. Honestly, it did very badly....we were all hoping it can come lower for us to get in. But it isnt. So we have to wait for September to do the little trick. Yesterday, Forbes boldly proclaim to the world that the OIL market is into a BUBBLE. We were talking about it a month ago. See how people can regurgitate information. But thats the world - information and especially rumors will be regurgitated and recycled. The layman will catch wind of it and suffer a fever. When that happen you will know it has reach a market top.
Some people tends to over-worry. The Indonesian Ruppiah ....... is a temporary episode. It is induce by market price of oil. The 1997 Asean Crisis was caused by debt. Debts really sent Asean into the depth. So forget about them talking about another Asean meltdown like in 1997/8. Not too sure those fellas know what they are talking about. Stock investors must wait for OIL to finish the show before it can stage the next show and take the spotlight. Every passing day is a frustration to the waiting-for-the-bullrun Bull. The 1992 Constitutional crisis held the Bulls back. Today, the Oil Crisis is similarly holding the Bulls back.
The American Debt of 4 Trillion is a problem - it is a big cancer and Americans find it hard to cancel it overnight. FYI every American is US$150,000 in debt. They are very poor people if you based on the national debt. Also, they dont save - their savings are more negative than positive. The US is a spending economy, and the rest of the world like Singapore loves their SPENDING. To reign in the runaway horse either they have to weaken the CURRENCY or imposed higher taxes and rates. If it is currency, then there is a big trading potential on the US Dollar.
It is time to learn how to trade forex and wait for the coming opportunity. We run forex course monthly lasting 12 nights or 36 hours. You learn the fundamentals, technical and psychology of trading forex. In internet forex trading, you dont pay COMMISSION. Bids and offers are instant. The spreads is as good as interbank. To know more, drop us an email. You can sign up for the 3rd intake schedule for Monday, 3rd October 2005. The 2nd intake for September is closed and the course commence tomorrow night. Our lecturers, with a combined 70 years of experience, are looking forward to meet the students tomorrow.
30 August 2005: Ohhh.....ahh US$70 OIL PRICE. Going 80, 90 or 100? They said the trend is very clear on oil prices. JUST BUY any price and you can make a FORTUNE. True. But not many people know they can trade OIL prices. Most do not know how. But who is driving the OIL prices up? The professional OIL traders, commodity houses and some banks. Definitely the laymen is not to blame but they have to pay the price of higher oil prices and products, and the stock investors suffer with lower stock prices. Katrina...... only comes to exaggerate and quicken the Bubble. Ask yourself - Who is short OIL? Who is long OIL? Those who bought will have to sell. Of course not now, as the market is OILY HOT. But soon there will be smelly fingers like for example CAO. When the bubble burst and the tide recede, you will know how many people have been swimming naked.
But dont worry, the OIL prices is entering a BUBBLE phase. Bubble means it can burst itself anytime. Nothing can stay high forever. Bubbles last less than a year. When it bursts, it mean the birth of a BEAR trend. Then everyone will rejoice. The result is pump prices will fall and stock prices will rise. In the meantime, our market will be happy to ride the OIL STORM within the range of 2200 to 2400. Dont worry....PM Lee Hsien Loong has it all wrap up. His vision for 2015 will be the third wave for Singapore - LKY took the first wave, GCT took the second wave, and LHL is now putting every Singaporeans on the third wave. Singaporeans never complain. We just love the direction; the younger generation is finding it a challenge. Cheers!
Please accept our apology for the server breakout on weekend and ytd. It was unfortunate - I could not contact my IT as he was in KL and having mobile connection problem. He is now in Thailand and I pray nothing goes wrong this time. But dont worry, he is carrying two mobile phones this time.
26 August 2005: Oil prices are heading higher. It is good. The faster it bubble, the better it will be for the global economy and for stock markets. Supply-wise, there is no such thing as shortage of OIL. According to inside sources, there are plenty of OIL. It is speculation and hoarding that is inflating prices. Oil traders are pushing the price to its ultimate level. In Wave terminology, the trend is undergoing the proverbial FIFTH WAVE....... You know, after the 5th Wave or the Bubble Wave the price will have to go into a spiral descend. Then Oil prices will be heading back to 30-50 regions. But there is another speculation going on in the market place, that CHINA is building giant underground SILOS to store OIL to secure here future needs. True or not, I do not know. But on the other hand, western powers will be looking for alternative fuel. Scientists are going back to harnessing wind power and solar energy. Some are looking at sea-wave power. Another crazy idea is - Why not our urine? Well, lets pee into that. You never know until it catches fire. Hmm....when market is undergoing consolidation, it is the best time for analyst to talk-cock-and-bull story. Ah ha...range for the STI 2200/2250-2400
25 August 2005: Key Reversal bar today is a sign of bullishness. It only means accumulation. But the time is still not right yet. So be prepared. The market has to undergo a longer consolidation before it can push for the upside. Short term trend remains bearish so we have to gauge the consolidation range for the future. The widest is 2200 to 2400. But with today's KR bar, the lower range could be 2250 to 2400...... Every consolidation will lead to a bull run, and therefore a break above 2400 is the service for 3000. And this is definitely backup by the "soooo-bullish" economy as whipped by the the Prime Minister. What if Kazanah of Malaysia starts buying up everything in the small-dot economy? Do you think they will? You know people do silly things in the fifth wave. And when they do, HA! the STI will not be 4300 but 7000!
Make yourself free this Friday. Why? Watch the spectacular 2 MOONS in the sky. It occurs once in a blue moon - 1600 years! It is the planet MARS on our horizon.
24 August 2005: STI sinking according to the Flag theory. So let it be; the market has to unfold itself. It has to fall before it can rise. And if it rises, it has to fall. This is the nature of trading markets and if you are unable to accomodate this, emotionally or mentally, it is better to find a better investment turf. Technically, it has yet to reach ..... an oversold level where smartbuyers can say "Hey Buddy, it is time to go in again. It is time to Ride on Lee Hsien Loong's Election."
Let me take a break. Why? It is my birthday. August 24 = 8+24= 14 which is the Joseph Cycle number. My kids are waiting for me at home to cut the cake!
23 August 2005: Time is not ripe yet for the Bulls to continue its upward charge. The Flag formation of the past 7 days favor a downward thrust before the market can be rated as oversold. By then, it will be September. Time-wise, September and October are not great months ...... for the Bulls. I reckon the Bull will find November month the ripe time for the push for 3000. So in the meantime, be prepared for wave 'c' downside attempt.
22 August 2005: Come on, give a clap to the young Prime Minister of Singapore. Give another clap to his Team of Ministers who plans to make Singapore The Jewel of the East! Yes...The Joseph Cycle is pointing that way. Singaporeans..... will be embarking on The Third Lap. It it already a jewel in Asia. It will be a Sparkling Diamond, no more a Tiny Red Dot or a Sparkling Red Dot. The STI will definitely rise. Once investors were concerned how low it will go. After the PM's speech and Grand Plan for Singapore, these same people will be asking how high will the STI be - 5000? or 10,000? Ahhh, Ah Beng and Ah Tee will say (when the bubble arrive), "The sky is the limit for Singapore. Never say cannot. Never say die. Try lah. Die die must try."
But the glory of Singapore can also be the envy of its neighbors. So again, we shall not be like Kuwait in the 1990 - you know the story.....Kuwait trusted that no neighbors will dare to rape her open kingdom. But Iraq, her brother, did. Kuwait went on fire and bled profusely. 23 nations of the world came to her rescue. But she was no longer the same - she was defaced. So how will Singapore and Singaporeans protect this Diamond of the East? We will leave this to our children to decide. But prior to, we have to instill in them the sense of loyalty to the Motherland and a preparedness to lay their life to defend the motherland. We cannot take security for granted after we achieved Diamond status in 2015.
BTW, according to The Joseph Cycle, 2015 is a Cycle Bottom! Aiyoyoh....it is always like that... very contrarian. Like in 1994 and 1995, after being crowned Developed Nation status, we went down...down and down. But this time in 2015, it will be different. Not that severe anymore. Please refer to my bestselling book The Joseph Cycle if you need to know more.
FYI - Jesus Christ died on the Cross in the year AD 27. Singapore was founded by Stamford Raffles in AD 1819. The Great Depression occurred in 1931. Our self-independence occurred on the harmonic 28-year cycle in 1959. The recession and stock market low ended in 1987. These coincidental years were the higher degree harmonic cycle years as propounded in The Joseph Cycle. The next great Convergence date is in 2043. But I will be 90 years old and maybe senile already. My children and your children's children will be around. What are the implications for them? Can they ride The Joseph Cycle in 2043? Who will teach them? Will they come to know of the Joseph Cycle? Will my book be around in 2043? Nothing is by chance. We appear to have a choice but it is all already pre-planned. Everything is already decided in Heaven before it comes down to Earth. Joseph told the Pharoah, "It is from God and he fixed it."
What about the Devil in 2001? Tell you tomorrow.
19 August2005: Do you know there is a correlation between Joseph, Jesus and Singapore? Do you know whywho the Devil brought down the Twin Tower? Hear me explain tomorrow!
See you tomorrow! The Saturday Market Talk will be held at Green Brew Restuarant, Floor 1, Science Hub, Science Park Drive. This meeting is for subscribers of EChartbook only. Fee $20 inclusive of refreshments. Bring your notebook as it is wireless rest. The 2-6pm will include Tutorial, Joseph Cycle, Market Talk & No Warrants. If you are not a EChartbook subscriber, please pay $60 for admission.
PS: We are holding a Forex Trading Course Preview on 23rd August 2005, Tuesday, 7pm to 9pm. Refreshments provided. Email me for detail and invitation. .......
18 August 2005: STI is still bearish but Walk over for President Nathan! No challenge. How I wish our life can always be like that. No challenge. Anyway, I am glad Mr Nathan won. It is good for Singapore. Now it will be PM Lee's turn. So watch the young Bull ....... Lee. According to Election Engineering Theory, the incumbent party will call for an Election on the back of a rising stock market. Rising stock market acts favorable on the incumbent party and is able to keep 5-10% of the votes from swinging away to the opposition. In the meantime, with the market sagging ie into a correction phase, the smartmoney will be scouting for good buy ahead of a possible Election this November or December.
PS: The Saturday Market Talk will be held at Green Brew Restuarant, Floor 1, Science Hub, Science Park Drive. This meeting is for subscribers of EChartbook only. Fee $20 inclusive of refreshments. Bring your notebook as it is wireless rest. The 2-6pm will include Tutorial, Joseph Cycle, Market Talk & No Warrants. If you are not a EChartbook subscriber, please pay $60 for admission.
17 August 2005: Let the market cool down. What goes up must come down but not lower than where it began in order for it to go higher. So when they do come down, dont ask for more before buying. Every investor loves to buy cheap....and they usually never have a chance to buy it. Why? Because they will lower the price as though to say, "Please dont fill me!" In a rising Bull market, the bravemen seize weaknesses. But if you do not have the courage, I suggest you begin ...... by loving Lee Hsien Loong and believe that his "aura and good luck" will help you ride through the market. Our PM Lee is a lucky man. He is brainy also. The moment he became PM, the Tsunami event gave him a chance to show his competency and capability. Singaporeans and Singapore won the world's praises and thank you. The world came to know of Singapore's capacity to response to disaster and our nation's organisational strength, social unity, leadership, can-talk-can-do-attitude and compassion. He and us did well. Clap # 1. Not long after he took over from GCT, the STI index rose above the 2000 and 2200 level. Thanks to him. Clap # 2. End of this year, he is likely to call for an Election. He will win hands down with the STI probably near to 3000 then. Clap # 3. Dont worry about Oil, all Singaporeans will have enough Oil to drive their cars for the next 10 years! If we allow him, he will convert Bukit Timah Hill to Bukit Oil Depot Hill. Clap # 4. And finally, I hope to see you at Green Brew this Saturday and we will talk about Joseph who became PM of Egypt at a young age of 30. Do you know that LKY became PM only at age 36 and at birth he was already destined to be a great man. Why? How do you know? Joseph will reveal the truth to you. Do you know why the Devil brought the WTC down in 2001 - the bottom of the Joseph Cycle? Who was the Devil incarnate? Joseph will tell you.
Second FX
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Some Feedbacks from our first batch trainees, "I learn so much more in two weeks compared to my five years of learning." "I wish you had started the course earlier." "The things I learnt from you cannot be learned from the books." "This course is very invaluable, give me confidence and will make me a competent trader. I am increasing my odd of success." "I like your sincerity and your passion to teach us. You really have our interest at heart." "Now I really understand what is the meaning of a hunter and a hunted. I will strongly recommend this course to all my trading friends." "Even better than the fx knowledge is the health knowledge you imparted to us. A big thank you to our guru." "The knowledge we gained in the last two weeks is a breakthrough for me. I can feel I am on a higher plane now. I am prepared to send my two teenage children to learn from you if you are prepared to teach them."
Never in my 25 years have I received such warm thanks from students. At the end of 10th lesson, they surprised me with a THANK YOU card, expressing their sincere appreciations for me and all the lecturers - Mr Tang, Tng and Ivan. I am really touched. I will never forget their gesture. The THANK YOU will be pinned on our notice board - a testimony from the students.
15 Aug 2005: There is now a big craze about warrant trading. Better know what it is first before jumping in. Ask "What do I know about warrant? What is warrant all about? Why do they offer warrant? Is it a level playing? How unlevel is the playing field? What are my disadvantages? How much premium am I buying or why pay for the premium?" Friends, if you find gold & jewelleries in a cave, would you invite others to share? Trading is a zero sum game. Your losses are their profits. Someone has to lose, and the fact is "Majority or 80% of them have to lose to the 20%." So dont be a sucker to every new toy. Remember the wise saying, "Your neighbor's wife is always more beautiful.....and the dream is real until there is a fatal disaster."
Warrant: Cosco EW20060203 expiry, strike $2.18, warrant trades at .365 = $2.54! Mother stock trading at $2.36. You are buying warrant at 18 cents premium. This is a 8% premium over 6 months period or annualized is equal to 16% premium. Someone is earning 16% return risk free! Where on earth can you get risk free 16% return? It is a lock in guaranteed profit. What about time decay and convergence? Writing warrants is a FORTUNE. Why?
13 Aug 2005: Ps: ECBTutorial-cum-MarkeTalk Seminar, 20th Aug, Sat, 2pm-6pm. For subscribers only. Email to confirm your attendance. Refreshments provided. Token Fee $20.
Of course, President Nathan will win the re-election. The highest seat representing all Singaporeans should go to the right person. I dont mind having Tommy Koh but not that ex-JTC chap. I dont feel safe and would not trust people of questionable character. Look at those countries surrounding us - "the nation's wealth squandered by rivalling parties". The real loser is the voter. So vote correctly. Vote with the future of your children in your hand. I rather have a tough guy, honest and trustworthy than one who could be a wolf in gentleman's clothing. This August we will vote for a President. President Nathan is one worthy fellow you can bank on. Why? He troubled himself to thank me for the book! I am truly impressed by his courtesy, consideration and respect for a small man like me. He makes me feel big and important!
This November/December chance is, we may have a Election ....... - the time to vote for a party to govern Singapore. This is serious business. We will be selecting a political party to manage the economy and country. A lousy party will be disastrous. Living in Singapore is tough (too many rules) but we do not have much of a choice. Our forefathers sacrificed to build this nation, we will have to sacrifice to secure the future of our children. We need good leadership with the values of HONESTY, INTEGRITY, LOYALTY and TRUSTWORTHY. In short, HILT. Voting them in, we are giving them the sword - to make the nation grow. If you vote a corrupt and inefficient party to govern Singapore, the sword will cut you and me. Many Asean countries took this Road2Ruin and suffered.
So the stock market will
rise to the occasion reflecting the economic and social confidence. Election is
big business. There will be positive multiplier effects. On top of that, rising
stock market gives the voters a good feel and may win some votes. So the party
will have to time the Election right. Timing is important from the voters and
psychological point of views. Of course, some say all this is
election-engineering but I think it is more of an art than manipulation. For the
stock investors, it does not matter. What matter is whether the stock prices
usually rise before an election or fall prior to an election. Take for example,
NDP and long holidays - stock market tend to fall a few days prior to NDP and
usually falls prior to a long holiday. The recent NDP came with a long holiday
effect (Sat, Sun, Mon and Tue) and the market behaved predictably. If you
missed it, wait for next NDP.
Early this year, the market speculated the election will be held in June. It
was not. We were all grossly wrong. PM Lee knows better lah. Will it be this
Nov/Dec long holiday? The chance is very high. The Malaysian got wind of it and
were talking about it. I do not think the PAP will postpone the election to
next year. Global economy esp electronics are looking for recovery in the
second half. Our economy is forecasted for higher performance. PM LHL needs a
good Report Card. China's economy is still burning hot with over 9% growth
reported today. So beware of china-link stocks. Do you know that HDB's
incubating office at Bukit Merah was 100% snapped up in less than 2 weeks? The
office space market is "hot". It means our economic engine is
cranking well. Office rentals are going up and the demand is strong. Last year,
a shop unit was asking for $1800 and find no tenant. Last month, it asked for
$3,300! And taken. If this was not evidence then what is. Do not judge the HDB
shopkeepers' business or the taxi drivers' woes and say that Singapore's
economy is not recovering. The wise man say, "If you look down at the
dried leaves on the ground you can say that the tree is dying. If you look up
and see the green foliage, the tree is alive and growing."
So bet on the Election. Ride on the present leadership and government. Trust the Joseph Cycle. These are my views, you can call it my personal ECBlog, and you have two choices - either agree with me or disagree. In the event you disagreed with my views, simply junk this article or shut your pc down immediately.
11 August 2005:
ECB VOTES FOR PRESIDENT NATHAN! Why?
Correction is good for the long term. Correction pushes away the danger of building a Bubble. Were you surprised that the STI fell today? You should not if you can read the pattern and the wave character - an abc. Today, a big chunk of the 32 points fall went to the heavyweight blues like DBS and UOB. Our market is different - two blue boys falling or rising can distort the STI and bring joy and sorrow to the masses. How about petitioning to delist these stocks and spare Singaporeans the agony and ecstacy? Or we ban ..... the stockists? Dont blame others! Blame yourself for not knowing the signal and for ignorance. The rule in trading is - If you do not know, dont play. If you want to play, know the risk. If you take risk, make sure you are well rewarded otherwise dont play, safer to stay at home.
My first course on Forex Trading is coming to an end. Eight students will be graduating out with flying colors. The duration of the intense training is 36 hours spread out into 12 evening sessions. They are learning the business of trading and the art of trading. We have 4 lecturers and 4 guest speakers to take care of their education. I think it was a course worth the money. They will have to sit for a test on the final day. We take our training very seriously and we know what we are teaching and we know what is good for them. Forex Trading Course will be held once a month. We will be holding two previews on 20th and 23rd August. Email simon@echartbook or contact me 97978988 if you have an interest to learn forex trading.
11 August 2005: No no...the STI is going into an abc consolidation phase. It is expected to go down on a 'c' wave. This will take a week to develop. There is fear of Oil prices going gaga after hitting $64 per barrel. Is there really a shortage of Oil? According to inside sources, pretty reliable, THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF OIL, THERE ARE PLENTY OF OIL OUT THERE. Traders are hoarding Oil and squeezing and betting for higher oil prices hoping to make a killing. They are now wondering how long it will last. The Oil prices are heading for a "Bubble" and like all bubbles, it will also burst and ends lower. But at the peak of the bubble, nervous stock investors will panic and bail out. Stock prices will be subdued by the bearish sentiment but ultimately, it will fall in to strong hands.
This month Singaporeans will be voting a President. Lets vote for Nathan! I will vote for the President Nathan. Why? In my opinion, he is the most courteous Singaporean. On the 25th of July I wrote, "Dear Mr President Nathan, I truly and sincerely admired the courtesy and encouragement you showered on a humble author like myself. In May 2005, I sent you a complimentary copy of my book Survival Rules and Habits - A Legacy For My Children without any expectation of receiving a reply nor thank you from your goodself. Yet you replied where I least expect. This was the first 'acknowledgement' I received for all the complimentary copies of books sent. Where all executives could not find time to reply or say a little thank you, you could find time between your busy schedules. In this little deed of yours, I must conclude that you are the "Most Courteous and humble President and Singaporean". I write this as a testimony of your courtesy and sincerity, and how I was so touched by your grace. Thank you Sir. Thank you Mr President Nathan." Simon Sim, Author.
10 August 2005: ps: My IT support guy is still holidaying in Thailand. Inconveniences regretted.
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9 August 2005: Happy Birthday Singapore! Happy Birthday to all Long Term Investors and Long Term Residents of Singapore. May The Joseph Cycle be right.
Last July, 40,000 Singaporeans signed a petition in the web which quickly forced the CEO, Mr Durai to quit. An additional 460,000 raise their in support of the issue. Are they more Singaporeans or was their act spurred by anger over the fact that their individual donations of $12 became a part and parcel of the $600,000 peanut-salary of Mr Durai? Now will these 500,000 Singaporeans stand up to defend Singapore, protect their families and give their lives to defend their Motherland like they did against Mr Durai? In the Durai's case, money and trust were the issue, and it inspired Singaporeans to rise to the occasion. Even the government was surprise! The key question is: Will they come to the forefront if Singapore is being attack by terrorists or outsiders? I heard a shopkeeper spend $15 on taxi fare just to collect (demand rather) back his $12 donations. Such bravados. Such a show of strength and principle. Such comrades in support of a cause.
Today is National Day 40th. And Singapore is the envy of the world. In less than 40 years, through sheer hardwork, dilligence and industry, sacrifice, belief and never-say-die attitude of our forefathers (your father and my father were a part of the success story and the Dream Team), we progressed from third world status (begging for help) to first world status (offering help like in Asia Tsunami 2004). No nation in the world has ever done it. But we did. In 1990, Kuwait was the envy of the world. Kuwait left her doors open thinking that no one will ever invade her. But Iraq did. And did it in less than 24 hours. In 1991, the Coalition Forces of the World evicted Iraq from Kuwait. But Iraq left behind a trial of destruction and fire. Today, the threats are slightly different. After Iraq's failed attempt, nations are less likely to invade another sovereign nations. They will know, it does not pay to do. And it is utter stupidity and foolishness to even harbor thought of it. So where will be the threat? Terrorism. The terrorists did it in NY on 9/11, then in Bali and lately in London on 7/7. So how can Singaporeans collectively defend and protect Singapore against terrorism and against unwelcome intruders? First we offer our two eyes and two ears. Then if need be, we lay down our life to protect our families, our wealth, our homes and our land. This is being Singaporeans. In the Durai's case, Singaporeans' message was HONESTY, INTEGRITY and TRUST. In the defense of Singapore, the message should be LOYALTY and LOVE for the Motherland. Together these words form the word H I L T.
I dedicate the above article to Singapore, my Motherland on her 40th Birthday.
STI will rise after the 9th of August 2005. It will challenge the last high at 2400. The sell-off last week operates on the market premise "Get out three days before the long holiday" and enjoy a peaceful holiday. It is standard market rules. But after the holidays, these guys have to get in and start chasing prices. You know the trend is up. So they have to buy first. And the objective at 2500 is still a distant away.
7 August 2005: Today in Church, I met two remisiers. And I asked them "Is it true that most remisiers are losers?" They answered firmly, "YES! Very bad. And they keep on trying. And continue to lose. I should have listened to a friend's (remisier) advice to quit the industry 4 years ago. Now I am paying the price." "So you mean 80-90% of remisiers are losers?", I asked. "Yes." The other remisier said, "I quit trading 5 years ago and concentrate solely on servicing now. No more risk-trading. I have lost enough."
It is sad and yet it is a known fact. 200 years ago, they already said, "80% are losers". Today, some researchers said, "85% are losers. Only 15% are winners." But the pool is bigger. The number of winners are huge despite being only 15%. Why are they losing? The second remisier said, "The ground is not level. Remisiers have to pay commission and buy higher or sell lower. Remisiers have to fight against the dealers and house traders who trade without commission. They are at the source of the information flow while we are near the tail end. It is like running a 100m race starting at the 0 markerline while the dealers are starting at the 20m markerline. You need to be a Carl Lewis to beat them. Further, house traders are not allowed to carry position to the next day while remisiers have a choice but more often than not, those 'shit' position becomes more shitty the next day." Why more shitty? The answers were colorful, "No luck. Bad luck. Last night I walked under a ladder. Blame it on the analysts. Today 'kanna kui'."
Losers can blame anybody and give 1001 reasons and excuses. They refused to ask WHYs and Whats? Why am I a loser? Why is that feilo-fella always a winner? Why when I buy the market fell. Why when he buys the market goes up? Why when I took 3 cents profit, the market ran up another 30 cents? What is trading? What makes the market ticks?
Can I be a winner? Can I be a better trader? Can I beat the market? Yes you can. Provided you have knowledge and you understand the market, you understand yourself and you are equipped. The wiseman said, "If you do not know, do not play. If you do not understand the business, do not jump in. If you cannot see, do not dream. If you hear it, forget it. If you felt it in your belly or gut, do the opposite." And the wiseman said, "In the beginning you are a fool. But if you attend school and learn from the wise, you become enlightened and fool no more. But if you think that a fool can be enlightened without learning, it is like a frog dreaming of becoming a prince." Why do they build universities and schools? For education and knowledge. Why do you have to go to school and universities? To acquire knowledge and to learn. How many years do you need? Three to five years.
The trading world is The Living University. But many enters without registration, permission, signing up, knowing the lecturers and paying a fee. Who is your teacher? No one. Where is your classroom? No class and no room. The majority enters this trading university illegally hoping to graduate with a Degree in Succe$$. One or two did made it (do not be fooled as this is not the norm) but the majority became corpses on the roadside.
So today, in Church I prayed to the Heavenly Father, "I pray that those who are having difficulties in trading be wiser and find a good teacher to guide them. I pray that when I trade, I do not fall into the fool's trap. Let those who come to me for help be wiser by the days."
Simon Sim Advisory Research Pte Ltd
(an exempt
Financial Advisors license company)
SchoolOfTrading.com
With our pool of trainers, we run educational courses for stock trading and forex trading: * IH=In-house
1. Be an Expert in mini Forex Trading. Why trade forex? What is emini? How to trade realtime forex through the internet platform. A crash course in the art of trading. (36 hours, 2 weeks. Monthly. IH)
2. Theory and Application of Wave Analysis. Learn what is wave trading. Learn how to trade and ride the waves. How to calculate targets and identify trading opportunities. Know why the good traders incorporate waves into their trading.(4 hours. Monthly. IH)
3. Stop Losing and Learn How to be a Winner. How to Be a Successful Trader through understanding yourself and your enemies. Using real case studies and examples. (4 hours. Monthly. IH)
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Please send us an email with the Subject: Education
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05 August 2005: Market kanna pre-National-cum-holiday-cum-ghostfests effect. So today no analysis but prayers for all the living and dead. May all beings be happy. May Singapore prosper under all conditions. May peace and security be upon us. May terrorists go down and stocks go up.
03 August 2005: Did you see a Bulls Brigade in KLSE? Click Bulls or Bears to find out!
Forex: SHS bottom on E$ cfm at 12250. Now E$ is trading at 12400, up 150 points. The objective is 12500 to 12700 but.....A$ is knocking on the downtrend at 7750. If that breaks then A$ can head back to 8000 and higher. Well, this could be what Buffett, Soros and Gates were looking for - a final decline in the US$. But they were dead before the US$ can fall. The central banks pulverished them for their cock-sure and arrogant attitude and super-overconfidence. The # 1 Rule in Forex trading is - Never go against the Central Banks and Rule # 2 said "Dont tell the Central Bank where their currency should go." Rule # 3 said Keep your idea and position secret. Rule # 4 said, Shut up, listen to the market and follow the trend. Study the map intelligently with a keen eye for details. Learn what the chart is trying to tell you. Listen to the chart and follow the trend. In March 2005, I heard ...... fx prop-traders from local banks lost big shorting the US$ following the viewpoints of The Three Musketeers. One of them lost so big that he was suspended from trading for the rest of the year. How can you lose when you follow the chart? How can you lose so big if you have rules? How can you not win if you have a weapon? The difference between successful traders and unsuccessful traders is Education and Knowledge. The prop-traders may be paid well but they may be as illiterate as the students who come to me asking for training. Gone were the days where an uneducated and unsophisticated fella can make it rich trading.
Market appears sagging under NDP effect - sell before N-Day but will the Bulls buy after N-Day on the 10th of August. I reckon they will if the price is right. Afterall, the objective at 2500 has yet to be fulfilled. They will try again to breach the 2400 high after crossing over this little market obstacle - Birthday of Singapore! OK lah, lets sing Happy Birthday songs for Singapore ... "May the Bull'ah rise, Singapura. Merrimen, come December we will see 3000. Samasama, we will see 4300 in 2008. Hear the Lion roar."
EChartbook is now complete! SGX has all the 700 stock charts. KLSE has 1019 stock charts. In the new websie setup, existing subscribers will receive access to all three markets - Forex, KSLE and SGX, for their remaining subscription plus a goodwill one or two months extension.
Ahhhh suspicious profit-taking on DBS dragged the STI down. Was this purpose or some attempt to frighten the small Bulls. I heard there is a bigtime market dictator on DBS stock. This fella can trade 500 lots of DBS. Who is he and how come he can corner this stock is again suspicious and juicy story. Last time, this fella can hold ransom the stock ransom. And how frustrating if you go long and the bloody stock refuses to move a cm. Many traders dunno why the STI fell off the high of 2400 and ended 11 points lower than ytd's close at 2365. Perhaps the sell off is only natural as next week is NDP and holiday. Traders are always tempted to lock in their gains before going for their holidays. If that is so, then decline is an opportunity to buy cheap.
E$ Today at 5.30pm I issued an alert: "E$ broke the Head and Shoulder ..... bottom's neckline at 12250 and surges to 12310 now. Beware of Aussie $ - it is not dead yet. Only Buffett, Soros and Gates were buried by the SHS Bottom pattern. If Aussie $ comes alive, it will challenge 8000 and above.
There are a couple of undervalued Blue Chip stocks in Malaysia! What are they? Maybank, Public Bank, SBank and AFFIN. Maybank seems undervalued trading below the 200MA while the KSLE index is pushing for a test of the 1000 chart point. PBank, SBank and Affin are leading the way by trading above the 200MA. Technically speaking, all four stocks should trade above the 200MA. Technically, a stock above the 200MA means it is long term bullish and will be enjoying a bull run soon.
EChartbook will be holding a seminar on the 20th of August, Saturday, 2pm to 6pm, at The Green Brew on "Tutorial, Market Outlook through the eyes of Joseph", for ECB subscribers only. Light refreshment & Coffee provided. The fee to cover the cost $20 pax. You can now have access to 1010+ stocks in KLSE and 650 stocks in SGX in our new website! And for the price of U$5.50 pm.
02 August 2005: Life is easy and will be smooth if you listen to God. Who is God you ask. Trading will be easy and profitable if you listen to the trend. What is the trend you ask. Like in life, people will bargain with God. Like in trading, traders will always bargain with the trend. They want cheap prices. They want to buy cheap and still bargain. Folks, this is your DNA. We inherited it from our ancestors. And in this birth, our immediate parents will DRILL into us, "Make sure you buy CHEAP ....... and BARGAIN for the best price!" So when they enter the Open Trading University Of Life, they are programmed to buy cheap and bargain for a cent cheaper. The consequence is - The trade they missed turned out to be the biggest winner! As good as missing the Jackpot. If you want to be a successful trader you must remodify your DNA. How? Call Doctor Sim for an appointment. If you want to know how high the STI can rise in 2008, ask Joseph or read his book The Joseph Cycle - Will the STI rise to 4,300? It was the bestseller at the local book shops for 20+ weeks beating 9 foreign big names! There are not many local authors except our dear maestro and father of modern Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, who can share and enjoy that spot.
On July 28th, I wrote about the STI, "The Bull is going....and are focus on 2,500. Time to auto-cruise and relax. Time for the technical analyst to take a break, and let the bull trend work itself out. Once we have nailed the trend, there is nothing much we can do." So you can see, I got nothing to write about the Bull In Motion but I still write. I write to educate you. To me, writing is an intellectual challenge. I hope the DNA can trigger your trading mind. We are 123 points away from 2500 and one week to the nation's Birthday - the day our fathers changed the fate of a small island in the Equator and against all odds the island survived! The island Prospered And Progress to become the Light House Of The World. The first nation that make ID a must. The first nation that said "NO SMOKING IN AIRCON PLACES". The first nation that banned CHEWING GUMS. Today, the industrialized nations are attempting to do what we first did 10 - 20 years ago. But first credit must go to the Singaporeans who made way and sacrificed their privillege and freedom for the greater good of Singapore. Our leaders are only as successful as the followers who follow.
01 August 2005: STI rose steadily to 2366 shortening the gap to 2500. The herd is now 134 points from target. And the herd is not in stampede. Well, it is a slow, steady and orderly advance. Last year, the pre-National Day rally did not materialize. This could be the one. Europe's woes (terrorism) is not Asia's gain. I saw an opportunity in currency. Do you know what it is? I guessed the Three Musketeers (Warren Bill Soros) must have exited from the short $ and taken a huge US$5 Billion loss. Thats staggering. One of the rules about trading is this - "Never let the world knows what you are doing or intend to do". Every plan is top secret and every action is secretive. What is in the newspapers is not new. Another good market rule is Always listen to the market and never try to teach the market or tell the market what to do and where to go. The market is smarter than you think.
29 July 2005: STI closed higher at 2353 onward to 2500 target. It is only 150 points away, and a few blue chips rally will realize the target. Mind you, there are 5 more months to year end. I dont think it will take 5 months to see 2500. Max is two months. And after that what will the Bulls do? Answer : Call for 3000! Have a nice weekend. National Day Parade is coming - PM LHL will be having his first National Day Parade as the PM of Singapore. Like you and me, he will want to see the STI at 3000 too. It will be a testimony to his success as PM and we can all cheer together at the end of the year - "3000 Christmas" by year end! Anyway, our economy's fundamentals are position for that. So folks, have a nice weekend and support the National Day and do your part for Singapore - Watch out for terrorists!
First FX
Trading Course by EChartbook commenced August 2005!
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trade. Learn how to profit in trading mini forex, stocks and commodities like
Oil futures, index futures, gold etcetc. Two weeks evening course starts 1st
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28 July 2005: STI closed higher again. The Bull is going....and are focus on 2,500. Time to auto-cruise and relax. Time for the technical analyst to take a break, and let the bull trend work itself out. Once we have nailed the trend, there is nothing much we can do. Of course, some analysts love to harp on their success. As for me, I will retreat into my meditation cave and enjoy some communion with my God and my Self. Hmmm, I will have coffee with God.
Warning: 11.40 pm the currencies are reversing. GBP has bottom out and will be heading higher. There is so much vols in Forex these days meaning there are plenty of trading opportunities. In forex, you can trade 10 times (buy and sell) and pay not a single cent or point of commission. It is com free. Quotes are at interbank meaning you are as good as a dealer. Was long GBP at 17458 and out at 17515, then long at 38% Retracement at 17495 and got out at 17515 again, and now bought again at 17547 in a jiffy and sold out at 17549. The upside GBP could go as high as 17700 to 17800. Yesterday was also a good day for trading Euro.
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27 July 2005: One year ago, nobody dared to share the light I was seeing - that the STI will rise. Today, many of them are now calling 2,500 as their own and as though something new! And they were big name kwai-low companies but of course, their analysts are chicken fries. Me...... I stick my neck out and put it in the chopping block. A good Technical Analyst puts his head on the table and risk it - either his reputation gone or he fulfills his professionalism. But many analysts hide under the "if not" clause or better still "copycat" others. The difference between a good analyst and a bad analyst ...... is homework. Same goes for a trader - the difference between a successful trader and a unsuccessful trader is homework but prior to, he must have E & K - "Education and Knowledge".
I remember last year when one analyst from the local house call for the STI to collapse to 1500! The newspapers even printed it. He was going for "glory or bloke" but at the expense of many innocent investors and traders. Many investors hearing of that "massive call", panic and bail out. It was a big hooha and then there was a big complain. After that, we never hear of that 'analyst' anymore. Mind you, there are many selfish people out there trying to make their mark and money at the expense of others - there was no ethics.
There is always a conflict of interest when the house writes as compare to what I write. I am not bother by conflict of interest. I have no interest. I write because I enjoy writing and Technical Analysis is my passion and profession. In order not to be caught in between, the investors should first invest in Education and Training, and view it as long term investment. If you have 10 or more years to trade, what is putting aside $5000 for education and training? Anyway, there is no free lunch in Singapore - the MM has said many years ago that even the "air aint free".
Are you waiting to read my analysis of the STI? There isnt any today. Why? When the trend is clear, even a 5 year old boy will tell you, "Dad, the stock market will rise. Dad, the blue chips will rise and Mr Simon Sim said it is heading for 2,500 and there may be a run for 3,000 end of this year. You can see the pictures of BULLS in his daily commentary."
26 July 2005: STI up 12 points. A Bull is a bull is a bull. A breakout is a breakout. Why doubt? Face the facts and let the head rules the heart; not the heart ruling the head. A Bull trend is assumed to be intact until it is violated. At present there is no reason to do so. Thus we shall continue to follow the Bull and look forward to 2500 first objective which could be anytime. After that, the Christmas Bulls will take over and shall be calling for 3,000!!! We will talk about above 3000 next year or leave it to Joseph and his 5741-year-old Prophecy.
Someone asked me how many of The Joseph Cycle books I gave away as complimentaries to VIP CEOs and received no acknowledgement. More than 200 copies! The market cost of that was S$5,000! It was a lost; a marketing cost. But when I received President Nathan's acknowledgement of my second book, I nearly fell off my chair. I could not believe it - a very very important man found time to reply to a common man! If it does not touch you, there is something missing in your heart. For that, I take my heart out for him. Because of him, many Singaporeans will find the loyalty and willpower to defend Singapore. The President is a very important Head of State for our nation. The examples he set will inspire and motivate the younger generations, and drive Singaporeans to excel and be the best.
25 July 2005: "Dear Mr President Nathan, I truly and sincerely admired the courtesy and encouragement you showered on a humble author like myself. In May 2005, I sent you a complimentary copy of my book Survival Rules and Habits - A Legacy For My Children without any expectation of receiving a reply nor thank you from your goodself. Yet you replied where I least expect. This was the first 'acknowledgement' I received for all the complimentary copies of books sent. Where all executives could not find time to reply or say a little thank you, you could find time between your busy schedules. In this little deed of yours, I must conclude that you are the "Most Courteous and humble President and Singaporean". I write this as a testimony of your courtesy and sincerity, and how I was so touched by your grace. Thank you Sir. Thank you Mr President Nathan." Simon Sim, Author
Consolidation in progress. Alamak! The world is so volatile while Singaporeans are back to peaceful nature after Durai Decapitulation. Hmmm....earthquake in Tokyo, undersea Quake in Nicobar Islands triggering tsunmai alert in Phuket, bombs in Eygpt, bombs in London, bird-flu in Indonesia and manimore. Aiyoyoh ... bei-see pun eh suffocate. Singapore is very lucky and the island must be protected by many "lucky charms". Of course, Singaporeans must not be complacent and carefoolly let ONE Terrorist in. 4 million Singaporeans multiply by 2 eyes n 2 ears = 8-million-Eyes-Ears should be sharp to locate and identify one burly, dark-skin, moustachioed bearded man of Middle-Eastern-Muslim-looking origin, with cold-steely eyes, wearing a pair of denim jeans n Nike shoes, smoking an arabian-camel cigarette, carrying a backpack with protruding wires and dangling a mobile phone on his right hand with the letters AhQ tattooed on his left arm. Arrrhhh...he is a terrorist! You have to capture him.
ps: We are trying our best to get the new site under order. We are still tuning the new website. Apologise for all failures and inconveniences. We are looking to setting up a BLOGGER in our website and are sourcing for Blog engines where Bloggers will have FULL control over their 'intellectual properties' and be financialiliable for insults and defamation.
Be An Expert in mini Forex Trading! Learn how to start trading as business. Learn how to trade. Learn how to profit in trading mini forex, stocks and commodities. Two weeks evening course starts 1st August 2005, 7-10pm with real time practise and mentoring. Call Simon 97978988. I do not recommend 2/3 days crash course which in my opinion is a zip-through and does a disfavor to the learners. If you think you can learn how to run a business after two days of lecture, I will be really surprise.
Do you know why my bosses and dealers addressed me as Doctor Sim and Guru Sim? Because I was the best and they only respect the best and reward the best people. It was a genuine thing and that was the history of the two nics. It is not meant to be a show off so please do not be offended.
The forex market is full of volatility. It was fun trading forex if you know how. There is so much movement and it is very very trendy. If you are a trader, this is the perfect dream - no commission, good ranges daily, easy execution and very narrow bid and offer. And you are trading on-line with instant reporting. I will be running a two weeks course on Forex Trading on 1st August, 10 sessions from 7pm to 10pm. If you are keen email me. Limited to 9 pax only. Learn how to trade emini forex through the internet platform. In forex, you can buy and you can sell, whereas the stock market is a buy side only. The margin on forex trading is small and the BEST THING IS there is a guarantee that you will not be responsible for losses in excess of the capital in your account. Now this is very very important. In the local trading firms, you are FULLY LIABLE for all losses in excess of your capital. Sad to say, many unwary traders LOST THEIR HOMES and some lost their life. Let me teach you a few trick in the course. Definitely, if you are discipline and apply technical analysis into forex, you can only beat the market. This I am very very sure. You can learn how to make forex trading a second career or a secondary income on top of your mainstream income. My rule is as long as you trade within your means there will be no irrationality, fear and panic. The moment greed sets in, you are destine to lose your pant. Trading should be a business and all business has a win-win outcome. So if trading is a business, the result should be profitability.
24 July 2005: Interested to write your own BLOG into my website and share your market ideas with other members? Blogs are more intellectual; much better than Forum which has degenerated into thrash and puzzles for idiots. With Blogs, people can read your train of thoughts and over time it will reveal your intellectual maturity. So if you are keen to test your writing and analytical skills and like to hv your own BLOG in my website, send me an email. I will tell you how to go about it. You can write about the stocks you monitor in your portfolio, or argue why you favor this stock etc. Be focus so as to become an authority over an issue or a stock. If you are too general or covers everything, then you can descend into the proverbial "Jack of All, Master of None."
22 July 2005: The Bull is taking a pause and after the pause, it will continue on its journey for 2500 undisturbed unless the "AQ-Terrorists" can put a few bombs right in front of its path at 2400. Or the Bulls died of AIDS or there is a Tsunami. Once a trend is in motion it will continue its motion until its objective is met. So it is never wise to go against the trend even if the fundamental disagree. The only recourse for non-believers in Technical Analysis is to STAND ASIDE and leave the Bulls alone.
New Look Website: Apologise for the small inconvenience on Friday - the website was down, due to upgrading and not sabotage by IT-Terrorists as some people thought so. Kekeke. I hope you like the new look site. We are revising our subscription rates to US$5.50 ONLINE with immediate effect. Current subscribers will be converted to the new pricing structure and their subscription lengthen proportionately to their unused portion. For goodwill purpose and in appreciation of your support, we will add ONE free month for those on 6M Plan and TWO free months for those on ONE YEAR Plan. The improved website and a lower pricing takes into consideration the wider market coverage like KLSE and Forex.
Some users still prefer the old format TheSpeculator - left-click, right-see, user friendly - dont worry, you can still access the old format from the url at the bottom of the page. According to MAS rulings, we are not supposed to give recommendations on buying and selling of stocks. MAS is serious and some people were fined. The offences carried a penalty of $100,000 maximum. And I dont think it is wise to break the rules. Rules are good and rules should be followed. Rules should be followed in "disciplined trading". We may only carry third party ideas while narrowing our analysis to educational status rather than "recommendations". Of course, most people think they can hide under this "education umbrella" and fool MAS. I wouldnt want to do that and belittle the central financial authority. Unless you have the necessary background and qualified profession, you may perform without guilt. Other than that, it could be playing with fire. So with effect from today, EChartbook will strive to be the provider of objective and unadulterated information which is being generated by our proprietary Technical Analysis software.
21 July 2005: Little change. STI in a consolidation. Two days 100 points gain is too good to miss, bad not to take and rude not to say thank you. Winners will go for a spending spree but they will be back for more later after the spending. As long as STI stays floating above 2250 nobody will entertain thoughts of bearishness. In fact, exited bulls will be looking to buy cheap as their focus will be logon to 2,500 objective.
Who is better - CEO of CAO or CEO of NKF? Who is better - the CEO of Creative or the CEO of Hyflux? Who is better bank - DBS, UOB OCBC? Who is the best? The Gahmen is the best because they always come in to rescue and takeover at the worst possible time like in Tsunami 2004 and NKF 2005.
20 July 2005: STI zoooomed to 2343 high before profit-taking came to pare it off the high and finally closing at 2309. This is 16 points higher than yesterday's close. Not a bad one though. Technically, it is still healthy and good. The selling was a healthy and natural reaction to the dizzy 100 points rally over 2 days. Smart-sellers were smart to observe the rule of "Never refuse a windfall." It is only Tuesday today...and 2,500 objective is still a mile away. Trading-wise, the Bulls will be going for "buy on dips and sell into rallies". The JC Investors can only HOLD ON and go for a cup of teh-tarik or order Ah Koon's Kayaroti plus kopi-oh. The playground is clear - 2230 to 2500. And what if the STI rises above 2500? Answer - The Bulls will dictate and call for the bar to be raised higher to 3000! You know human beings - you can never satisfy them unless the bubble burst. The 100 points rise in two days should have caught the attention of non-believers, the Ah Peks and the Ah Sohs, and godknow maybe even the terrorists. It is an eye-raiser. So watch out, the future ahead is going to be volatile as fortune-seekers begin to come forward. The gahmen's policy change actually started a smoke in the forest which may turn into a wild fire. Well, Singaporeans will be hoping every month there will be such a nationalistic 100-point-stockmarket rally.
19th July 2005: STI uppppppa 43 points! Whew! At this rate, you shall see 3,000! And at this rate, we may see 10,000 STI by the year 2008! Cheers to Joseph Sim. Oooph...everyone is mistakenly calling me Joseph Sim instead of Simon Sim. Me no Joseph. TRUST the Joseph Cycle!
Back to market - Thanks to the Mothernment! Thanks to the policy change. Joseph Cycle did not call for it to happen but events will happen to fulfill the Joseph Cycle. So which is chicken and which is egg? Did the Joseph Cycle creates the events or the event creates the Joseph Cycle? The answer to this question can be answered by Joseph himself and you can find the ANSWER in this book "The Joseph Cycle - Will the STI rise to 4,300?" written by Simon Sim.
23 years ago in 1982, while the DJI was ranging between 700 to 1000, Thomas Blamer wrote the book "DOW 3000". Nobody believes him. I did and I bought that book costing S$41.90, which is still kept in my library. The DJI rose to 10,000! He called for 3,000 and the market gave him 10,000 - 3 times his forecast. In writing my book in 2003, I was recreating Thomas Blamer's experience and effort. I am calling for 4,300 by the year 2008 and today the index surged powerfully to close at 2,292. God knows how high it will be by this Christmas, 24th December 2005. And God knows how high STI will be by the year 2008. Will it be 3 times? When my forecast became public in 2004, everyone said, "4,300 is definitely impossible; Mr Sim is crazy and out of his mind." After today's majestic 43 points rally to 2,292, 4,300 objective is no longer impossible. It will become a question of "How soon?" Less than two years ago, disheartened stockowners echoed that our Singapore's economy is doomed and the PAPEople running the Economy are a bunch of dunno-good4nothing-idiots. Tomorrow, they will be singing a different song, and the lyric goes - "The Economy is Booming under PAPA, Our wealth is growing and glowing, Many nations are coming to see, Many money is pouring into Singapore, Our eConomy is floating, Thanks to PAPA." Yes, our economy is darn strong. You shall see. Foreigners are prepared to buy our Raffles. More foreigners will follow suit. With the liquid CASH, Temasek will buy into everything in Singapore. Two years ago, assets were chasing cash. Down the road, cash will be chasing after assets. Two years ago, Bears were chasing after Bulls. Down the months, Bulls will be chasing after Bears. I have said in my second book "Survival Rules and Habits - Legacy for My Children" that Singapore have shown the WORLD what we can do and what we really are in the biggest global disaster to hit mankind - The Asian Tsunami of 26th December 2004. We were the FIRST TO THE RESCUE! And that earned Singapore plenty of CREDITS, respect and goodwill.
All I can say is - if STI can rise to 10,000 "We will all retire very very rich men!" Thanks to Joseph and thanks to God. Dont thank me. Thank yourself for having the GUT to HOLD ON, for the GUT to GET IN, and the GUT to HANG ON, till kingdom come. You pat yourself on your back, I pat myself on my own back. The only thing I will accept from you is a cup of Kopi-oh and your continuing subscription to this wonderful, courageous point-blank website. I have never doubted our STI's capacity to rise. I have never doubted my analysis and forecast. I knew I will be right, time will tell and events will unfold to fulfill it.
Very soon, we will be launching a new-look website with a new strategy. We aim to make EChartbook, the only chart resource for investors, just like having your daily newspaper. And the subscription shall be painless.
18th July 2005: No change to STI's direction and focus for 2,500. Keep focus.
Alert: One currency is technically weak and has high probability of falling.
15 July 2005: Two big stories overhang the peaceful island of Singapore. One is Huang Na, a sweet 9 years old girl from Fukien, China. The second headline story and the gossips of every taxi and bus drivers and blue and white collar workers, involving 500,000 to one million Singaporeans, centred around the CEO of NKF. Under court pressures, he finally revealed his astronomical pay packet of $600,000 which was "peenuts or peanuts of paynuts" to some people. But the underlying principle at fault, commonly in most tragedies, is TRUST.
Huang Na's mother trusted a Singaporean woman to look after her daughter. This young mother trusted her colleague allowing her daughter to be close with this 'boyish' man. The consequence is TRAGEDY! She lost her daughter. Nine years of upbringing was lost in a moment of folly, a simple act of carelessness. She will have to live the rest of her life in pain and in guilt, knowing she did not do her duty and give her daughter the best of her maternal protection. The case of Huang Na was mentioned and discussed in my book Survival Rules and Habits.
Half a million Singaporeans, in fact it could be more, trusted NKF to do a decent task of transferring their donation to the needy Kidney patients. Let me tell you, one million Singaporeans have the "heart" to think of other suffering Singaporeans. They expect their hard-earned money to go to these people. But on the contrary and they were shock and surprise and they felt cheated. The TRUST was broken. The trust was given to NKF and Mr Durai. But it was not reciprocated. It took the courageous SPH to expose NKF's dirty linens and the dirty tactics of suing innocent people who complained about them. The consequence is also a TRAGEDY! The CEO and the entire Board resigned, en-bloc. In this case, one million Singaporeans are 'happy'. As usual, the motherly PM has to step in and draw the new rules and the OB markers. Expect a new chapter in NKF history.
Honesty, Integrity, Loyalty and Trust are the four pillars of success. The four words together formed the word H I L T. What is hilt? It is the place where you hold the sword. To hold a sword is an honor and there are principles to honor and uphold. Basically, we honor Honesty, Integrity, Loyalty and Trust. Any breach of one of this values is enough to bring trouble and tragedy to the individual and to society. These HILT Principle was also mentioned in my two books - The Joseph Cycle and Survival Rules and Habits books. Banks cannot afford any staff to breach these four values.
Look at CAO. They paid two millions for the best risk management software. And because of that Big Guns like Temasek, DBS etc, and 7000 Singaporeans trusted them. The expensive purchase showed they mean business and they are long term player. To the public the 'Rolls Royce of Risk' there is no way this company can do go under. But on the contrary, it did went under after suffering a massive lost of US$550 millions. Where went wrong? Which values were violated? They broke the values of honesty, integrity and trust. The primary one is DISHONESTY. The trust was given to them but they did not return it. Hiding losses, knowing it and not revealing it goes to show the integrity of the people at CAO. Dishonesty also means that these people cannot be trusted to do a good job. Worst still, the CEO went home to China immediately after announcing "Sorry, we are bankrupt!" as though we were all playing monopoly money.
So it is important that we groom and teach your children the values of HILT - Honesty, Integrity, Loyalty and Trust. This are the cardinal values and once these values are embedded in them, they will grow upright and be a good citizen. As we grow older, we can hold our heads high and proud that our children are good citizens and did not bring shame and disgrace to the family, society and nation. To me this is already success. Success should not be measured by how much money you have or how much money you can passed it to your children after death. Success is making sure our children grows up to be independent, nation loving, kind, compassionate, honest, trustworthy, loyal to the nation (never to betray Singapore and its citizens, and would give their lives when the times call for it), contribute to society in terms of money, job creation or help, and possess filial values to look after their parents till death parts us.
I better stop here. Maybe, it is better you reach this book "Survival Rules and Habits". It is all in this book! If you cannot teach your children, then let them help themselves. Gift a copy of this book on their next birthday and get them to promise you this "Please read a page a day!" I personally believe, you can see changes in them after 3 months. This I am sure.
Singaporeans will run to buy a book or attend a course that says "Can make 2 Millions in two days!" paying thousands $ They are prepared to spend thousands $ each year on family vacation to USA, Australia or Korea BUT is less keen to pay $20-50 dollars for a book that can teach their children (and themselves) values and survival skills. This is a fact and it is a marketing statistics from the bookshops. Our children should be and is the biggest investment in our life. We should teach them how to fish and how to survive; and not what expensive food to eat, what expensive holidays to go, and all the joys of life. Most parent assumes nothing tragic will happen to their children. They refuse to entertain this thought "What if I am not around (for example died in an accident. Touch wood!)? Can my children grow up and challenge life without me?" They are hoping for the best. And when tragedy struck they blame it on God. By then, it will be too late. A life or limb maybe lost. The years of effort wasted. Then they live in regrets and die regretting because they know they did not do their best to protect and empower their children. After death, they worry and lingers around as spirits! Heard of lost souls?
It took me 9 years to create this book Survival Rules and Habits. 900 rules were written 9 years ago and left on cold storage until the case of Huang Na appeared. Her tragedy inspired me to pick up my pen and started writing. The task was completed in 5 months and the book went to print on April 2005. This book is special and the special symbol is 9. Thus the book even cost $33 (3x3=9. 9 is chiu or longevity. 9 is also the symbol of God. Every topic has 9 points. There are in total 9 chapters. There are 9 Tragedies mentioned). It is a Legacy for your children as it is a legacy for my children.
Coming to the market - trust the Joseph Cycle and ride on the Joseph Cycle.
14th July 2005: STI closed higher at 2250 clearing the 2230 resistance now by 20 points! The bulls will step up the pressure and pursue the STI for objective of 2500. That means another 270 points to go before thinking of taking profit. Great going for everybody. Great going for those who "hang on to their stocks" after reading the theory and strategy contained in The Joseph Cycle book. In fact, there was a guy who called me to say "Thank you". In 2004, he was about to SELL ALL his stocks bought during the heady days. After reading Joseph Cycle, he was motivated to "hang on" and bite the bullet. He was so happy to tell me, "I have recovered all my losses. Thanks to your book." I am glad for him. The book saved his life. This was the reason why I wrote the book. I wrote to tell Singaporean investors battered by the crisis, "NOT TO SELL THEIR STOCKS BUT TO HANG ON!" I already knew the 14-year Cycle (Joseph Cycle) and I decided to share it with Singaporeans and to help anchor their investment strategy. It worked and I am happy I was given a chance to do a good deed. Only heaven knows my true heart. Some jealous people think I was out to make some good bucks through selling the book and to help save my stocks. FYI, it cost me $70,000 to write that book! So far I have only managed to sell 5,000 books. Assuming I make a profit of $8 per book, the revenue I collected was $40,000 and I am still down $30,000. When I decided to write the book, the only concern I had was how to recover only the cost of printing ($10,000). I did not even consider recovering my time and effort. I was prepared for the sacrifice and the salary lost. But you cannot quantify the value, name and 'thank you' I received - a successful author. It is not easy to be an author besides being a Bestselling Author. Bookshops told me, some local authors only managed to sell 100 books. So let me appeal to you "Support the local authors!" in their intellectual pursuit. Every book you purchased encourages them to be better and most important, help sustain them financially.
In 2003, my friends jokingly said, "If the STI can rise to 2500 I will be happy." It is on course to 2500 and I can now said that my duty will be discharged. Then there was another group of friends who said, "If the STI can rise to 3000 I will be happy to liquidate all my stocks and retire a rich man." At the rate things are going, it should not be a problem but do you think they really mean what they said? The answer is NO. On the contrary, they will add on, jump in and greed for more. It is our human nature to greed. Greed was planted in us at birth. (It was planted to test our desire for God or for the World.) They will participate and help build another BUBBLE. By 2007,everyone will have ZERO MEMORY of the last bubble. The warnings peddled by the old man on the streets will be mocked at. The New Generation Bulls will throw caution into the wind just like the generation earlier. The Cycle will simply be REPEATED. I have said that in the book and bubbles were happening 200 years ago.
The Joseph Cycle is a very powerful concept and theory. It was given to the Jews 5,741 years ago. You can imagine how rich the Jews are. They are filthy rich! Every Jew at birth already know who is Joseph and every child knows the story of Joseph and how he saved Egypt and the surrounding nations at a young age of only 30 and his 7 x 7 Cycle. The truth about Cycle was given to us 5741 years ago and the Father of Cycle was none other than Joseph himself. In revealing the "7 good years and 7 lean years", Joseph himself revealed a Secret from Heaven! He was given the title of "Revealer of Secret". Do you know that till this day, no one can ever find his remains and locate his burial location. Perhaps, he himself had the secret deleted!
I was just lucky to stumble on Joseph and share the secret with 5,000 people who bought the book. I wish them well and hope they will pass that secret to their children and save their children from cyclical financial annihilation and massacre. To those who bought this book, please accept my sincere "Thank you". I wonder what karmic link I had with Joseph 5741 years ago in Egypt. I hope Joseph can reveal this secret in my dream.
Today is the 14th of July 2005. It is 77 77. What a day to write about Joseph. What a coincidence. The London terrorists also strucked on the 7th of July 2005! A triple seven. In the Koran, Joseph is called Yusuf. I hope they do not abuse Joseph (Yusuf) in their evil scheme and tarnish the name of Joseph (Yusuf).
This essay was completed at 7.07 pm!!!!
13th July 2005: Stay long stay cool. Besides being a thinking and strategy game, trading is also emotional game. So if you cannot tame your emotion, then you will be outclass and outplayed by the market. In fact, YOU are the greatest enemy. Do you know that? You can have the best tool, best system, best analysts (and pay a bomb for them), you can still FAIL is YOU is wrong. One classic example was CAO - China Aviation Oil. The CEO Chen Shui Pian boasted that the company bought the best best and most expensive Risk Management System! But the investors NEVER think that he can over-ride the system ie refused to listen to the system. The company paid dearly for the mistake - US$550 million of losses. Therefore, success or failure is still the person behind it. I suggest you train and master yourself first. He who mastered himself is a master of human beings. He who master himself and understand the world, will conquer the universe.
So stay calm. Let the market work out its fate. In trading, majority of the people want to win only. But in truth, the reality could be - there may be equal # of winning trades and losing trades. But if the risk-reward ratio is positive, the trader emerges a winner. And if the Expected Value of Each Trade is positive, then the trader will always be a winner, year in and year out. Do you understand what I am talking about? If you do not, then it is time to attend school.
If trading is a simple 50:50 chance and a BUY or SELL task, then everyone will be successful and there will be no failures. The market truth since 200 years ago is - 80% of the traders are LOSERS and 20% are WINNERS. Why? And which CAMP are you in?
ps: F stands for FILTHY and not what comes to your mind first! Please accept my apology for punting with upper case capital yesterday. So F-Rich stands for Filthy Rich.
12th July 2005: No harm to the STI's uptrend. The bull trend is still intact as long as it is above 2230. Of course, investors are a little nervous and concern.
On the forex scene, it was a sweet uptrend! We bought the Euro$ at 11975 yesterday morning 10am and sold out at today 12175 at 7.30pm 5mins ago, making a 200 points profit. It was a simple trade - buying the triple thrusted bottom and a wave 4 concept. In forex trading, it is more science than art. Every day there are trading opportunities in forex. There is volatility and above all we all know that the big boys Warren Buffett, George Soros and Bill Gates are in it too. God knows they could be the real donor. Wonder how much they have lost in the forex game so far. They were long Euros 4-6 months ago, and you can see from the chart it could be at an average of 13100. Measured against the low of 11900, it was said they were down 10% on a combined position size of at least US$50B. That means losing US$5B. In Singapore, sometime in March 2005, I heard some proprietary traders lost a fortune for their bank; they were "stop out" for the rest of the year. You can imagine the "deep hole" they inflicted on their employer. They thought it was safe and NEVER WRONG to bet on the side of the big - The Three Musketeers! But The Three Musketeers were not TA savvy. They were fundamentalists calling for the collapse of the US$ and a collapse in the US Economy. And they were killed (losing Billions) for their defiance and belief and believing in some senior banker's tips. I guessed the Triple Thrusted bottom was where they all died and buried. The truth is they do not have the Knowledge. They have a little knowledge and a little knowledge is a very dangerous thing in trading. Education is THE only road to becoming a successful trader. There is only two outcome for every aspiring beginner: either you pay the teacher and learn something solid OR you pay to the market and learn nothing. Choose wisely. How long does it takes to become a doctor? 5 years of study. How long does it takes to become a lawyer? 4 years of study. How long will it take to become a successful trader? The common and simple answer was 2. It is common to read advertisements screaming, "2 Days to become a Millionaire Trader!", "Attend our 2 Days seminar and be a master trader" and "Learn How I Make Two Million US$ trading Options in 2 Days". Friends wake up! If two 'fool' days can make a man a millionaire trader, then there will be no doctors, lawyers, engineers and Prime Ministers in the world and offices will have no workers!. Everyone will be F-Rich! My advise to anyone who wish to become successful in trading - Find a good teacher first, and second, ask him how long will it takes to become a successful trader. Mr Tng, one of my lecturer, a veteran in the forex banking industry will tell you how long it will take to become a capable forex trader.
11th July 2005: Cheers ...our STI is now 2041. For the second time, the STI is above the 2230 resistance. Will the Bulls get whipped like at 2234? I dont think so. Beware, the Bulls will be showing anger after being deceived when the index fell below 2230. Anger plus frustration can burn a path to 2,500. A frustrated Bull is a very dangerous animal. The only way to beat it is to pour Oil on the path of the Bull. But I think the Oil prices is losing the upward march - it appears to be topping out and could possibly be heading down. This is good news for stocks and the economy. Even there is nothing to fear even if Oil prices go into a bubble phase. Why? Bubble is temporary and when the bubble burst it means a a multi-year bear trend in Oil is born. That will be extremely good for stocks. Is there a bubble in the stock market? If you see one then you could be hallucinating. The stock market has been in a state of puncture for 7 bad years ending in 2003. Based on the Joseph Cycle Theory, we should be enjoying SEVEN GOOD YEARS of stock harvest. Even if you are not that optimistic, at least we should experience three good years. Well, it means the objective at 2,500 will be met. The objective at 3,000 will also be met. Those who bought my book told me they are now convinced that our stock market will rise to 3,500.
Two years ago, NOBODY repeat nobody, believes that the stock market will be this high. Even my best friends from the same University thought I was hallucinating and bluffing myself. Others were gossiping and criticizing behind my back. I persevered, bit the bullet, belief in myself, continued writing and finish the book - all DIY. Without the power of God's strength I would have wilt and throw in the towel. I was writing under a "spell". It was divine inspiration that kept me going for 7 months at 20 hours per day of writing, 7 days a week. I was like a madman in a hurry to get the book before the market can take off. A few times, I found myself writing 56 hours sitting on my chair and then fell asleep on the floor. At the end of 11 months toil, I was pale as ghost and thin to the bone - my writing was my food while water and coffee quenched my thirst, and passion was my sustainer.
Some people even throw shits on my theory equating me as a conman out to get some fame. Of course when you do not the background of the author, you should refrain from such comment. Why would my bosses call me Doctor Sim if I was not that good? Why would the 100+ dealers call me a Guru if I am that lousy? All I know is - I know my profession, I know what I know and I believed in what I know.
Do you know why my bosses and dealers addressed me as Doctor Sim and Guru Sim? Because I was the best and they only respect the best and reward the best people. It was a genuine thing and that was the history of the two nics. It is not meant to be a show off so please do not be offended.
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The forex market is full of volatility. It was fun trading forex if you know how. There is so much movement and it is very very trendy. If you are a trader, this is the perfect dream - no commission, good ranges daily, easy execution and very narrow bid and offer. And you are trading on-line with instant reporting. I will be running a two weeks course on Forex Trading on 1st August, 10 sessions from 7pm to 10pm. If you are keen email me. Limited to 9 pax only. Learn how to trade emini forex through the internet platform. In forex, you can buy and you can sell, whereas the stock market is a buy side only. The margin on forex trading is small and the BEST THING IS there is a guarantee that you will not be responsible for losses in excess of the capital in your account. Now this is very very important. In the local trading firms, you are FULLY LIABLE for all losses in excess of your capital. Sad to say, many unwary traders LOST THEIR HOMES and some lost their life. Let me teach you a few trick in the course. Definitely, if you are discipline and apply technical analysis into forex, you can only beat the market. This I am very very sure. You can learn how to make forex trading a second career or a secondary income on top of your mainstream income. My rule is as long as you trade within your means there will be no irrationality, fear and panic. The moment greed sets in, you are destine to lose your pant. Trading should be a business and all business has a win-win outcome. So if trading is a business, the result should be profitability.
08th July 2005: "Our hearts go to the innocent children and adults who fell victim to terrorism in the city of London yesterday deliberately on the 7th of July 2005 ie 7 7 7. Four years ago in New York, on 11th Sep 2001, 911 as we all know, we watch with jaws apart the monstrous horror at the Twin Towers of the WTC. It was so painful to the extent that my heart fell out of my mouth. During that few stunning hours, I lost my heart. It should not be repeated but unfortunately it did, and it occurred in the city of London yesterday. It could be anywhere and our children may be the next victim.
Today's terrorists are behaving like the communists of yesteryears. They attempt to win by destabilizing the society and sacrificing innocent lives. For sure, there is no way they can come to power and win the heart and mind of the people. Their cruelty is beyond comprehension and unpardonable. In the name of their religion and god, they kill to glorify and pacify their god. In truth, like the communists of the past, they are using brainwashing and psychological methods to convince their own people to sacrifice their lives through taking other lives. They propagate the belief that god will be happy if you kill those who do not believe in their way, and that god will grant the martyr a seat in heaven. Very sadly, the innocent youths have been misled and hypnotized by the brand of atrocities and cruelties.
According to Spiritual Cycle, we are living in the Kaliyuga Era - the age of decay and destruction. And according to Kaliyuga prophecy, it is in this era that the real god will manifest, perhaps forced to manifest by the level of cruelties among human beings. To the Christians they see the manifestation as Christ; to the Buddhists they see the manifestation as Maitreya Buddha; to the Muslims they see a different version; Indians they see the manifestation as the Shiva. There is only one manifestation but everyone sees it according to their judgment, taste and understanding. This sounds very familiar in the story of the four blind men holding onto the four legs of the elephants. When each was asked what they were holding, each gave a totally different answer. The ancient wise men said, "God is One" but the modern man echoes "God is my One."
The only way for the world to root out terrorism is for everyone to give their eyes and ears to the authority. Everyone must share in the collective duty and responsibility. Terrorism is a cancer in our society and it is in everybody's interest and security to stop its advancement. Everyone should be on the lookout for sign of terrorism, terrorist's root and cells. When terrorism knows that every two eyes and two ears are on the lookout for them, terrorism have no choice but to retreat into the wilderness and die a natural death. Yes, terrorism thinks they are ants, so tiny that it cannot be detected but when everyone works together even a tiny ant in your garden can be picked up. The peaceful and loving people of the world must unite and pursue terrorism collectively in order to terminate the cancer inflicting this world. Send a secret message to every one "We hate terrorism!" I believe this mental vibration can help suppress terrorism. If we fear terrorism terrorism will tear us. If we run away from terrorism, terrorism will run us down. If we leave them alone, they will rule us one day. Terrorism does not believe in democracy and freedom. Terrorism terrorizes and hope to make decent people into cowards. We have to make a choice, take a firm stand and be vocal against it." Thoughts of Simon Sim
Back to the STI - Financial markets will show the terrorists that no matter what they do, the financial markets will stand firm and steady. Every central banks will be there to support the financial system should a disaster like that struck. And smart money will know that too and will be glad to buy on chaos. So the more they attack the system, the financial will run counter to their aim. So dont expect a financial meltdown when some bombs go off. But our STI is now trap in a 2190-2230 range; it did broke the triangle but fell back in. Expect cautious buying until the STI can rise above 2230 again. Otherwise, the Oil factor will be a burden on our back.
7th July 2005: Once again, when the chart says bullish the STI turns bearish. Technically, we have to regard ytd's break above 2230 as a false break. The re-entry into 2230 is a cause of concern. Expect the STI to reconsolidate between 2190-2230. Today, the Bulls were frustrated and they conceded. Now ...should the STI rise above 2230 again they will throw the anger and frustration into the market and raze the ground to 2500. It will be a sort of vengeance. The market has emotions and psychology. Whoever understands crowd psychology will never be fooled twice.
The terrorists struck at 7 places in the city of London this morning. They struck immediately after London won the right to host the 2012 Olympic Games. Strange...the forex market smelled 'something' - the Euro$ broke the overhead resistance at 1.1930 an hour before the terrorist strike. But better still, our STI's 22 points fall was even better. The twin evils - Oil and Terrorism - if you are a bull you will hate it. And both originate in the Middle East. Honestly speaking, I am glad London won the 2012 OG beating the French. I took London to win and it did. The French has been pretty ungentleman of late.
06th July 2005: So the bulls are shrugging off high Oil prices and bulldozing through the 2230 resistance. Today STI cleared that hurdle to close at 2234. It is a breakout and thus the way is now clear for the Bulls to stampede for 2500 objective. Vice-versa, a decline into the 2230 resistance can create temporary panic. Now the situation is like this and we must be mentally prepared - if Oil prices for whatever reasons shoot to U$80, what will happen to the stock market? So far so good, the market has overcome the psychological burden of a US$60 Oil prices. But we must not think Oil prices can go no higher. Oil is now a speculative "gold" similar to the Gold of the 1980s whereby we chased Gold/Bullion prices from US$250 per ounce to sky-high price of US$950. I was there buying at the London fixing price of US$950.....and then the bubble burst and EVERYONE (95% of speculators) got killed. Not me though. Those who did the wrong pyramid died when the price fell U$200 to $750. Those who did the right pyramiding, survive to tell stories of bankruptcies and mega losses. Broking houses went bust because customers failed to pay up. That was 1980! Then in 1993, the stock market bubble and burst. I was there too. I was out before the crash came in. Timing is very important and the lesson is - Know when to leave the party and learn how to kill your greed and get home before the violence erupt. Whenever the market is "too hot" it is time to say "Good Bye".... NOT "Good Buy!" This time round, I tend to sense there could be a mercenary and speculative assault on Oil prices which could send this "black gold" to dizzy heights. It can be good.....because after the bubble Oil prices will go into a multi-year fall...and this will be good for business and good as well for The Joseph Cycle which forecast an STI of 4,300 by the year 2008. All I can ask for it, the quicker the Oil prices bubble, the better it is for stock. But what does this all mean? Remember, we are supposed to dig in and BUY ON CHAOS. Thus will there be stock CHAOS when Oil prices hit $80...with an upper range of US$100 per barrel. Oh my God, your PUB Bill will cost more. Life is full of opportunity if you have the patience and full of surprises to make you cry and laugh.
05th July 2005: STI tested the 2230 resistance but failed to close above. It ended the day at 2222. The situation remains the same - it is a deadlock between 2190-2230. But be mindful of Oil prices which is dangerously high and could come under speculative attack.
04th July 2005: The Oil price trend is very clear cut but the STI trend is blurrr. I am scratching my head. Or am I bias? Objectivity means there is NO TREND within the 2190-2230 confine, and there is a BULL above 2230 and there is a BEAR below 2190, and the Oil prices is still heading higher. So you figure out whether to bull or not to bull. Technically, the past fifteen days trading has assumed a Triangle Pattern which is favoring the Bulls. So folks, if the index breaks above 2230....just be a Bull and if after breaking above and then falters inside 2230....run for your life. Thats for the day traders and trading opportunists. For the longer term players, it is good practize playing Hold and Add On.
01st July 2005: Is the STI building a pattern top? The short term trend remains bearish and we are still trap in the 2190-2230 trading range. Yes...the Crude Oil prices has fallen three straight days but the price is still above $55. The DJI is unconvinced and is still reacting negatively. Is the Oil price heading lower or is it just a correction? If it is a correction, then there will be another attempt to push the price above $60 again. So it seems our STI will be happy to stay in the neutral 2190-2230 to monitor the movement in the Oil prices.
30th June 2005: Oil prices fell two days in a row....but it is not over yet. The Oil uptrend is still intact - the medium and long term trends are still pointing up. It can be rated as bearish only if prices fall below $55. So keep the fingers cross...and hope the market manipulators stop squeezing oil prices up. I heard there are a lot of oil floating in the Oceans - the hoarders/traders are the speculators. On the other hand, only when STI can get back above 2230 will I be a willing Bull, otherwise I will be cautious ... just incase the index falls below the support at 2190.
29th Jun 2005: Like it or not, the short term trend is bearish. This means there is risk on the downside - ie a break of the 2190 is possible. In fact, the index has been closing at the low for the past three days. This is not a good sign. So I will be wary. But there could be comfort from the technically bearish Oil price - you can see an island top pattern. But Oil price is still at U$58. Will it fall down to U$50 and cancel away the fear in the stock market? The recovery in the DJI could just be temporary.
28th June 2005: They sold the index down in the last minutes of trading. So blue chips could also be getting out or somebody just want the STI index to go below 2190. Some say it is the futures market manipulating the index. There are many reasons for every move but the real reason can never be tempered. It is the rising Oil prices. Watch the trading range of 2190-2230; a break below 2190 means bear is in control. Viceversa, a break above 2230 which is less likely now, means the bull is in control.
27th June 2005: STI down only 17 points to close at 2207 without threatening the 2190 support. But what about the Oil prices? It is still above $60 per barrel and not coming down. Will Iran under the fundamentalist new leader, help to bring the Oil price down or make it worse? Not very likely. Already, China is putting pressure on Oil price by trying to buy American oil company and to secure the Oil supply. Hope there wont be a mad scramble for Oil by every nation with each nation paying top $. This was once-upon-a-time ransom theory held by some analysts. That will be doomsday (perhaps World War III) scenario unless the world can discover other sources of fuel supply quickly. I just wonder what happen to the research and development of "Solar Fuel". Or unless one Smart Alex can turn salt-water into fuel! Then there will be limitless fuel supply and Oil will be worth less than a buck (et).
Stock markets are very worried with this rising Oil prices and rising interest rates. Rising rates is so far a toothless and non-event as rates were rising from near zero level and there was never a threat to economies unless rates are pushed above the threshold of 5+ percentage points. Oil prices is now above the no-pain barrel and it can only hurt especially if it stays at these levels for too long a time.
24th June 2005: The DJI buckled under the fear of rising Oil prices but our local investors don't seem to pay any regard. Why so? Either they are too arrogant or they are just too gungho or they do not know anything or was it greed and inflexibility? I warned of this dammed "Oil Prices above $60" which is giving me cold shivers down my spine, "... but jolly better the Oil prices start coming down....or else the higher STI rises and the higher OIL prices could be spelling for a future DISASTER. That is to say, the fall will be heavy as there will be panic to head for the exit." And I did warned in my last line, ".... And if the attitude of most people (happy go lucky), friends be double beware!" I think the market is not prepared for Oil prices heading back up to $60, thus it is therefore a psychological thing and it could provide psychological fuel for selling. You know when fear enters the market, panic swells the belly and a disaster is born.
What it all boils down is - finally the bull market is unravelled by the persistently rising Oil prices. The Bull can only be back when Oil prices start falling below $50. Aiyoh, one American analyst played "dirty and ungentleman" when it issued a report saying Oil prices will definitely plunge back down. This 'good reporting' could have won over many investors and turn them into Dying Bulls. Irresponsible reporting or just plain - the market is a dirty game with such dirty folks around. Therefore, it is wise to be sceptical but best thing is to do your homework and think independently and objectively. Remember, trading is a zero sum game and your losses are somebody's gain. So each and everyone out there is trying to empty your bank, if not 'rob' you in daylight.
Thursday, the DJI crashed 160 points. And tonight the DJI is crashing another 100 something points. So sorry folks, see a Singapore crash on Monday morning. And this will surely crack the 2190 and send our STI back into the 2100-2190 consolidation trading range. Count yourself lucky if you managed to lighten up or liquidate in view of the 'discomfort'. If you did not, then there is only one result - the market will take you for a free ride. A trader must ride the market. He must never let the market takes him for a ride.
Having a fun time trading forex. It is a perfect trading animal on top of the 'no com'. In fact, this is the most level playing field for anyone intending to be a professional trader.